Remember the golden rule – those with the gold makes the rules. This of course is not the moral version of the true golden rule, but nevertheless, it’s one that the world has operated from for quite some time.
In today’s podcast we highlight the economic and financial news with initial jobless claims hitting 3.8 million in the prior week – taking the six week total to over 30 million Americans having filed for unemployment insurance. The Fed also updated their balance sheet and it’s week over week change was an additional $82B. This figure is well below that of the last several weeks as the Fed has added over $2T to its balance sheet over the past month.
The crux of today’s discussion is centered around the political blame game that is both coming and underway, especially as it relates to COVID19. We mention how this heated rhetoric may lead to conflict that may likely take the form of proxy war(s). A couple of strong candidates would be that of Iran and Venezuela. Over the last couple of days, news agencies have been noting how Venezuela has sent about $500 million worth of gold to Iran in exchange for Iran’s assistance with one of their refineries. Also, Venezuela has been asking the Bank of England, which stores some of Venezuela’s gold reserves, to sell some of their gold and give the proceeds to the United Nations. This would be to serve the purpose of assisting the UN so that in turn the UN may assist Venezuela combat COVID19 as well as their many economic woes. The Bank of England is refusing to comply with Venezuela’s request because the UK does not recognize the Maduro regime as the legitimate government. So now as a result, even more people will become refugees and/or suffer from starvation, energy shortages, and a myriad of economic problems.
So in short, when gold starts getting moved around (or is prohibited) and when it also pertains to a couple of countries that are both under harsh US sanctions, while at the same time both of these countries are heavily reliant on oil and gas – it makes us wonder here at The Kapital News as to what is truly going on and where me may be headed. In addition, US naval and military forces are around both countries. We do not want war, but if history is any indicator, we’re likely headed in that direction. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Gold #Oil #War #Economy #Recession #Debt #Bailouts #USA #Venezuela #Iran #Peace
Reviewing a list of 20 market risks for 2020 was the focus of today’s discussion. The list of concerns was created by Deutsche Bank and much of the points are topics that The Kapital News has been discussing for quite awhile. There is much uncertainty that remains, from trade deals, to global protests, to Brexit, to Middle East tensions, to political elections, central bank policies, and much more. The year 2019 saw a big return when it came to US equity markets, (which made new all-time highs again today), this came on the back of massive amounts of liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, massive debt issuance by corporations and the US government, misleading trade deal headlines by President Trump and his Administration, and many others. In short, the markets were propped up by easy money and $1 trillion deficit spending. This is a far-far cry from the “greatest” economy ever in the history of the United States. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #EndTheFed #Debt #Politics #Peace #Truth #Justice
Just a follow up today of this week’s events from the UK elections to the impeachment process, to the Phase 1 US/China trade deal, and to some general market news. As a lot of these hot button issues come to some semblance of a conclusion, the markets will now have to start looking elsewhere to gain some positive momentum. Where exactly is it going to find such positivity? Perhaps talks of Phase 2 will commence immediately, please, NO! Or perhaps the mega liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve from now until early January will be enough to cause a Santa Claus rally? Only time will tell, but the headwinds still outweigh the tailwinds as far as The Kapital News is concerned. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Impeachment #Recession #EndTheFed #Trade #USA #China #Trump #Xi #HongKong #Truth #Justice #Peace #Congress #Republic
We could simply copy and paste the headlines that pertain to the US/China trade deal or lack thereof. This is like living in the Twilight Zone with this constant and continual occurrence of yes there is a deal, to no, we have to increase tariffs, and rinse and repeat. Well it appears today that President Trump is ready to roll back 50% of the tariffs and cancel the upcoming tariffs that were scheduled for 15 December. What does the US get in return? We really have no idea. Possibly the Chinese will buy more ag products like soybeans and pork bellies. But that really just takes us back to where we were when this whole thing started. So what really has been accomplished? We also have early reporting that a Phase 2 deal will not commence until after the 2020 elections. So is this the end of trade headline optimism? Meaning, what are the markets going to look to so that they can “justify” climbing higher? Perhaps the Federal Reserve will come to the rescue and just flush the markets with liquidity like they’ve already been doing – just in a larger order. Time will tell, but if there really is a deal, early reporting is also stating that it will not be released for public review and President Xi will not be signing it. So there’s that.
UK elections look to keep PM Boris Johnson and his Conservative party in power and by a wide margin. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is expected to step down as the leader following the election results. What does this mean for Brexit? Will it finally happen? It appears by the voice and vote of the British people that Brexit must occur. After all, it’s only been 3 1/2 years and counting.
Here in the US, the House Judiciary Committee is expected to vote on impeachment tomorrow morning following a marathon day of amendment issues, debates, and committee procedural votes. The vote in the affirmative for impeachment is likely, thus setting the stage for a full House vote on impeachment for next week. This will then move the trial to the US Senate where Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, is already working closely with the White House on how to proceed. Does this make sense? A juror is working closely with the defendant. What could possibly go wrong? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Trade #Economy #Impeachment #EndTheFed #Recession #Politics #Congress #Republic #Truth #Justice #Peace
Is it politics, the economy, global currencies, that we’re discussing when we note a race to the bottom? Or is it perhaps all of the above? Yes! It is all of the above, unfortunately. The Fed decided to keep rates steady and expects to do so throughout 2020, but we’re not holding our breath. It’s an election year and any market pullback of significance, and to this Fed, 5% might be considered significant, causing the Fed to intervene and cut rates again. And don’t forget about non-QE, QE, the o/n repo market, and the term repo market. Today’s decision, caused the dollar to weaken against a basket of currencies. How will these other countries respond? Most likely with further monetary easing of their own. Thus a race to the bottom.
An impeachment vote in the affirmative is all, but guaranteed and this, despite your opinions of the President, is a sad nation in the history of our Republic. If impeached, the next step will be for a trial to convene in the US Senate with US Senators the jury and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presiding. The rules of the trial will be made known soon after impeachment. This all of course assumes that President Donald J Trump is impeached.
This weekend a decision must be rendered by the President as to whether or not there will be an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. Postpone, cancel, or implement? – that is the question. Regardless of the decision, expect market volatility in one direction or the other. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Recession #Economy #EndTheFed #Impeachment #Politics #Truth #Justice #Peace #Congress #Republic
When we analyze US and rest of the world corporate debt and benchmark this against the Wilshire 5000 total market full cap index, we see a near 1 to 1 relationship. Thus implying that stock market performance is strongly linked to debt growth. This is no surprise to us here at The Kapital News, but it’s always interesting to see this data represented graphically. (We will do a video presentation on this as well). When one understands that debt is growth from the future being brought to the present, one must then ask the question, where will the future growth come from? This is the question at the heart of this central bank and debt expansion experiment. The Kapital News expects the fallout to be detrimental for generation(s). This also gives rise to outlandish and unsustainable valuations in the stock market. Market cap to US GDP is currently around 148% – levels not seen since the height of the dot-com bubble. Again, how long can this be sustained on a growing mountain of debt and currency creation?
In other news, President Trump has a major decision to make by 2 December as this is the deadline for him to sign the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights Act into law. Will he do it and risk upsetting the Chinese and thus a Phase 1 trade deal? Or will he cave and not sign it because he’s more concerned with the stock market as opposed to standing up for American values and human rights? Also coming due is a decision centered around tariffs. Come 15 December, tariffs are expected to increase and be placed on additional Chinese goods. Decisions. Decisions. American values? Human rights? Or new highs in the stock market? What will the President decide? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Truth #Debt #Recession #EndTheFed #Stocks #Trade #Politics #USA #China #HongKong #Justice #Peace #Republic
Who or what may we even be talking about with this headline? It’s a sad reality when I’m sure many of us can come up with a number of names and institutions that warrant this question of “who to believe?” Do we believe the President or the Democrats? The Republicans or the Democrats? The White House or the Chinese Communist Party? One news outlet over the next? These questions continue and continue and continue. So, we take the time today to run through some recent scenarios and how to analyze them from multiple perspectives in order to hopefully arrive at the truth – whatever that means and whatever that may be. The same stories continue and they will persist well into 2020 – you know what they are. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Truth #Justice #Peace #Politics #Economy #Recession #EndTheFed #Impeachment #HongKong
We’ve been discussing global events at a rapid pace as of late with financial and economic news and geopolitical unrest that takes us to nearly all corners of the world. In today’s podcast we provide some updates and insights on what has transpired and what we’re likely to see in the future.
We discuss the testimony of Boeing’s CEO before a Senate panel, updates to Brexit, protests in Lebanon and Chile, the Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting, US/China trade talks, and further news surrounding the impeachment inquiry. Somewhere in all of this is the truth, but it’s sadly becoming harder and harder to find. We also caution to be very mindful of these global protests – this is not transitory – this is historic. These are the cracks in the foundation making their way throughout the rest of the world. Remember that revolutions are fought on empty stomachs and people around the globe are upset with rising costs of food, living, medical expenses, and corrupt governments and politicians. The world is in the midst of a sea change – and it’s just getting started. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Protests #Recession #Impeachment #Brexit #Boeing #Economy #Politics #Lebanon #Chile #USA #China #UK #HongKong #Truth #Peace #Justice #Congress
Another day and another vote (or two) in the House of Commons. While UK PM Boris Johnson gets his first major victory during the first vote in today’s session – approving the Withdrawal Agreement, he was not so lucky on the second vote. The second vote pertained to an expedited schedule to get the Brexit deal through the legislative process and Parliament said no. MPs want more time to go through the agreement’s entirety and to have a thorough economic analysis conducted prior to giving their full blessing. Recall, the referendum was in June of 2016. Over three years and there is still bickering and much uncertainty around what a Brexit will actually look like. Now, given the outcome of today’s votes, it appears that the proverbial can is likely to get kicked further down the road. Despite the appearance of further dither and delay by Parliament, PM Johnson is still steadfast in his rhetoric that Brexit will take place on 31 October – only a handful of days away. Given other recent votes, this is now less and less likely and attention will now be paid to EU officials to see if they grant the UK yet another extension. There remains many moving parts when it comes to Brexit and should we be surprised that such high drama or dark comedy is unfolding in the land of Shakespeare? The only question is, in what act do we find ourselves?
In other news we discuss Q3 earning’s season, further news from Boeing, and the deal agreed to by President Erdogan and President Putin surrounding Syria. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Brexit #UK #Democracy #USA #Turkey #Russia #Syria #Justice #Peace #Truth #Boeing #Economy #Politics
A handful of breaking news stories crossed the wires today, but the one that caught a good deal of attention pertained to the alleged cease-fire between Turkey and Syria. This was a deal that was brokered by VP Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with their counterparts in Turkey. Shortly after the US claims that a 120 hour cease-fire has been agreed, Turkish officials come out and state that this is not a cease-fire, but rather a pause in the action. What we do know is that the US is supposed to move the Kurdish forces further south into Syria and further away from the Turkish border – exactly what Turkey wants. In essence, this is a quasi-deal to surrender the position of the Kurds – an American ally. The Kapital News is for peace and prosperity and wants to see an end to the endless wars. However, this cannot be done by shooting from the hip. This needs to be done in a prudent and well thought out manner in order to prevent the kind of scenario in which we find ourselves. Following the “cease-fire” announcement, President Donald Trump made claims that he was the only one who could get this done and that this cease-fire will prevent millions of lives from being lost. This is a ridiculous notion on a few fronts, but primarily because this was not a problem until President Trump made his quick decision to remove US forces from Syria. This then led to the immediate advance of the Turkish military into Syria. This is akin to breaking something and then claiming how great you are when you fix it or attempt to fix it. In addition to this, within the next five days, President Erdogan of Turkey will be visiting with President Putin in Russia – just a coincidence we imagine. Other stories discussed pertain to a “miscommunication” from Mick Mulvaney, acting Chief of Staff to the President, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget, regarding the “quid pro quo” on the President’s phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart. We briefly discuss the Brexit deal, but we’re not holding our breath that this deal will be passed by Parliament in the coming days. Also, an article in Vanity Fair calls into question some irregular trading activity that may have proven quite profitable surrounding trades in the US futures markets that may have paid-off big by timing correctly President Trump’s tweets surrounding the US/China trade talks. Finally, someone in the mainstream in calling this into question. This is an abuse of power and in the very least, it needs to be investigated by the proper authorities. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Truth #Justice #Peace #War #USA #Syria #Turkey #Russia #Politics #Economy #Recession #Impeachment +
