A lot of data came over the wires today – economic and political. In today’s podcast we discuss the common Thursday topics of initial and continuing jobless claims, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and M2 money stock. Today was also the release of the initial reading for Q3 GDP, which came in at a record print of +33.1 percent. Such a large increase is no surprise to The Kapital News, and in fact, we have been discussing this for months. When you have the worst reading of GDP in Q2 at -31.4 percent, it’s not so difficult to come back with a big number in the subsequent quarter. This is especially more so the case when the federal government and Federal Reserve throw trillions of dollars (that we did not have), into the system. The question now is what happens moving forward? And also, do not forget that Q1 GDP contracted -5 percent. And the lockdowns and restrictions did not take hold until March on a large scale. So most of Q1 2020 was in the books prior to the COVID-19 actions. Again, this is something The Kapital News had been arguing throughout 2019 – that the economy was rolling over, and a recession was on the horizon – even before the onset of the pandemic. We also continue our coverage of early voting and the electoral college as analyzed by Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending 24 October were 751,000, maintaining a figure below that stubborn 800,000 mark for the second consecutive week. However, this is still a heartbreaking number, as before the pandemic, this statistic was in the low 200,000 range, week-to-week. So despite all the fiscal and monetary efforts, still seven/eight months into this downturn, we are still witnessing several hundred thousand layoffs per week. Continuing claims for the week ending 17 October are continuing lower and are now at 7.756 million, which is a week-over-week decline of 709,000. In aggregate, for all persons claiming a UI benefit, for the week ending, 10 October, 22.6 million Americans remained jobless.
The Fed’s balance sheet rolled over slightly from it’s all-time seen last week. The balance sheet gave back about $31 billion and now sits at $7.146 trillion. This roll off is part of the natural process of assets expiring that the Fed is holding – think the duration of a Treasury note, bill, or mortgage-backed security. Nonetheless, The Kapital News remains steadfast in our analysis that the Fed’s balance, along with other central banks, will continue to grind higher. The M2 money stock continues to make new all-time highs and now rests at $18.815 trillion. This is a year-over-year increase of over 24 percent. In the 40 years of data provided for this figure, there is only one time the year-over-year figure was higher, and that was two months ago in early September! The next closest figure was around 13 percent back in the early-to-mid 1980s. This is extremely worrisome and will prove detrimental to the system.
Early voting is now 81.3 million, with 52.9 million being mail ballots, and 28.4 million in-person. This continues to break records and is simply a staggering figure. This represents 59 percent of the total 2016 voter turnout, and if estimates for 2020 are correct, we’re likely at the 50 percent mark on the high range, should 160 million votes be cast in 2020. With a few more days to go and depending on the state, early voting can still take place tomorrow, and of course mail-in ballots will continue to make their way into election offices over the weekend and into election day. With such high turnout, we may very likely know who wins the election within a couple of days of 3 November. To the electoral college – should Biden win Florida, then it’s likely an early night, as this would greatly diminish the chances that Trump could win re-election. With more polls coming in across the wires, Real Clear Politics now gives Biden 356 electoral college votes to Trump’s 182. The biggest changes since yesterday were switching both Florida and Georgia into the Biden column. With respect to Five Thirty Eight, they are now giving Biden an 89 in 100 chance of winning to Trump’s 11 in 100. Their model is also awarding Biden the battleground states of PA, AZ, FL, NC, GA, OH, and even both single districts in ME and NE. Such a turn out gives Biden 347 electoral college votes to Trump’s 191. Yet despite this, it is still either man’s race and there are a few more days of campaigning to go. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #Vote #USA #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution