Our typical Thursday discussion revolves around the initial jobless claims data, along with that of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and M2 money stock. With respect to initial jobless claims, the number came in at 884,000, which was higher than market forecasts, but below that one million figure we’ve been witnessing for far too long. However, in aggregate when we review the total number of Americans claiming some form of unemployment insurance benefit, this figure now stands at 29.6 million. This is the second weekly increase where last weeks change added over 2 million to the total count. The bulk of these increases have been seen in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program – a creation of the Nobody CARES Act. This program is for small business owners, contract workers, gig workers, and the like. So is this telling us something about the state of small business? On the monetary front, the European Central Bank, ECB, announced today that they will be keeping rates unchanged, and that they will be purchasing up to 1.35 trillion Euros of debt until June of 2021.
On the small business front, we highlight a recent article from Axios that covers a Goldman Sachs survey that questions 10,000 small businesses. There of course is some good news and some bad news. From the question, “Based on the situation today, do you think your business will survive?” An all-time survey low of 65% answered yes – the survey goes back to April. Those who answered, no, was at a survey high of 7%. While many small businesses are beginning to or are already completely open once again, a significant figure of 36% are claiming that without additional help from Congress, they will have to layoff workers and/or cut hours/pay. Further, 30% of respondents noted that without additional support from Congress, they will burn through their cash reserves by the end of the year. There are still many questions that need to be asked and answered and the distortionary effects that exist within the economy due to the policies implemented by Congress, the White House, and the Fed, make knowing the answers to these questions that much more difficult. One thing is certain, it is going to take a little while longer to gain a better picture of the real jobs market and the related economic fallout. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Unemployment #Depression #Recession #Inflation #USA #Gold #Liberty #Silver #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
For those who have been with The Kapital News for a while, know that our take on the global protests is that they are not transitory, but rather history in the making. Time will of course tell all, but it must be understood that many of these protests were occurring before COVID-19, and they’re likely to pick up steam again, if they haven’t already done so. It’s important to stress that COVID-19 has revealed how weak and unsustainable the global system is. A global economy that builds itself on debt was just taunting this type of scenario, such as a pandemic, to occur. So while the economic and political fallout that has been underway throughout this year will surely blame the pandemic, especially politicians and policymakers, this audience must understand that the issues being protested against were years in the making. This is why so many of them were taking place prior to the pandemic and this is why we take so many efforts to stress this point. It was a collapsing system before the pandemic. And once the trillions of dollars that have been thrown into the global financial system begins to wear off, the true economic, social, and political fallout will begin. Despite how bad things have been for so many – we ain’t seen nothing yet. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Protests #Depression #Inflation #Gold #BananaRepublic #Silver #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #USA
Since we’re only a couple of months away from election day, we wanted to take the time to discuss some of the many issues that are still circulating and waiting in the wings. Unfortunately, many of these structural issues are not likely even going to be discussed during the campaign, but the problems associated will continue to be experienced by millions of Americans. Some of these issues consist of, evictions and moratoriums, bankruptcies and insolvencies, issues in commercial and residential real estate, jobs and unemployment, federal government spending and Federal Reserve actions, protests and riots, COVID-19 and vaccine(s), national debt and deficits, amongst others. This is a lot to cover and what the campaigns are likely going to continue to do, is blame the other side and attempt to scare people by “creating” a window into the world that will exist if the other side is in the White House. This shows you their respective lack of focus and their contempt for you because they do not even want to discuss the structural issues that are causing the many other smaller concerns that they want you to focus on. This is pure propaganda, politics, and divide and conquer at play. Wise up and wake up to the real issues. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Election #USA #Inflation #Gold #Recession #Depression #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
So with another month in the books the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released the jobs report for the month of August. Headlines would tell you that the unemployment rate declined to 8.4%. However, what you’re not likely going to hear is that permanent job losers increased by 534,000 to 3.4 million. This is a figure not seen since 2013 still coming off the highs seen during the GFC. What the headlines also will not tell you is that when you look at the Department of Labor’s report, which is a part of our typical Thursday data review podcast, it noted that for the week ending 15 August, some 29.2 million Americans were claiming some form of unemployment insurance – a week-over-week increase of nearly 2.2 million. Well if one takes this number and divides it by 160 million (size of labor force), you get 18.25%! This is nowhere near the headline 8.4% figure. Now of course there also still exists many distortionary effects when it comes to the jobs numbers, in addition to other variables, and these distortions come from the “Nobody Cares Act,” the PPP loans/grants, and various “emergency” programs from the Federal Reserve, and states’ moratoriums and the like.
These policies make it very difficult to gain a full-picture of the true jobs situation. This is why we highlight the permanent job losers stats, along with the total number of Americans claiming unemployment insurance benefits. If one wants to come up with the 8.4% figure, simply take the continuing claims data and divide by the 160 million labor force (of course account for rounding). Still the point is made, because continuing claims data does not take into consideration those who claim various federal programs that have been implemented due to the pandemic – which again, goes to show the distortionary effects in real-time. If you want the fuller picture, then stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Unemployment #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Protests #Recession #Depression #Liberty #Revolution
Just yesterday we asked if the risk-reward breakdown was signaling danger ahead? Well as timing would have it, there was a large market pullback today across the major indexes. The question moving forward of course is, is there more downside to come, or is this just a much needed “breather” in a very overbought and overextended rally, whereby the next leg up is to be realized? Well, as we know, anything is possible when you have policymakers around the world doing their best to keep asset prices elevated. Unfortunately, these governments and central banks are doing so at any cost. And these costs are going to be truly devastating to the masses. These costs will show up, and many of them are already here, with some of the most destructive being that of inflation and hyperinflation.
Further today during our discussion was the initial jobless claims number which came in at 881,000 for the week ending 29 August. For the entire month of August, initial claims totaled over 5.1 million Americans. When we take into consideration all of the unemployment benefits being paid out, over 29.2 million Americans are receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 15 August, so there is a lag involved, but what is most startling, is that the week-over-week change was an additional 2.195 million Americans claiming benefits. This is clearly in the wrong direction, but consistent with our analysis of the many distortionary effects that exist within the system due to various policy programs from the government and the Federal Reserve. A fuller and more accurate picture of the jobs market will be made known once the moratoriums and other policies are lifted and/or exhausted. Tomorrow, the August jobs report will be released. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #Gold #Bailouts #Unemployment #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Silver #Recession #Depression #USA #Protests #Liberty #Revolution
Markets making new highs and yet the volatility index, the VIX, is also moving higher. What might this suggest for markets? Despite the massive rally across the major indexes, the VIX has held relatively firm. But with the VIX moving up with the S&P 500 of which it tracks, might this be a warning of more volatility ahead? With valuations breaking one record after the next on a daily basis, the risk-reward picture is definitely not pointing in favor of adding more risk to one’s portfolio. For example, just yesterday, Apple, Inc.’s market cap was larger than the entirety of the Russell 2000 index! However, if enough people believe that printing presses are panaceas, then this mania may very well last for longer than many think possible. Time will tell.
On another risk-reward note, the Trump Administration is floating a story that a COVID-19 vaccine may very well be available by the end of October to 1 November. Let’s see, what also is around that time-frame? Oh, yes, that’s right, the presidential election. So a process that usually takes years is now going to approve a vaccine within months? Talk about “Operation Warp Speed.” And of course, The Kapital News imagines that there will be massive insider trading on this information as the Administration is going to know in advance what companies are going to be approved. And on top of this, because this is a rush-job, the same pharma companies that are going to print a mint on the back of this news, will also be immune from any potential lawsuit, should their vaccine(s) not prove safe and/or effective. How can they lose? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Gold #Jobs #Bailouts #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #Depression #Recession #USA
A national eviction moratorium has been put into place until the end of the year. This is from the Trump Administration using a law that grants power to the CDC to make such a decision. This is somewhat of a head-scratcher as the Trump Administration repeatedly says that we’re in a V-shaped recovery and that everything is fine – then why the nationwide moratorium? Also, what happens on 1 January 2021 when the moratorium is lifted? What happens with all the back rents due? How do landlords navigate this terrain? Also fitting with today’s show title, are the questions around taxation, the Federal Reserve, money printing, the debts and deficits, student loans, shortfalls in state and local governments, and the under-funding of pensions across this country, amongst others. One unsustainable issue and item after the next and not a peep from a policymaker as to how this is all going to unfold or how this game is going to end. Can you say defaults? Can you say insolvencies? Can you say inflation? Who gets to pay for all of this because there is no free lunch? We’re looking for some truth and leadership and it’s nowhere to be found. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Gold #BananaRepublic #Jobs #Bailouts #Silver #EndTheFed #Recession #Depression
During our discussion today we recap the Republican National Convention, the Federal Reserve’s new policy stance with respect to inflation and employment, and we also cover economic data pertaining to jobless claims and the money supply. Hint, hint, inflation is here, stagflation is here, and hyperinflation is even a possibility in the not too distant future, even here in the USA. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #RNC #DNC #Politics #Economy #USA #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Inflation #Stagflation #Hyperinflation #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Protests #Liberty #Revolution
Day three of the Republican National Convention and the keynote speaker was that of VP Mike Pence. His speech did what it had to do to reach the Administration’s base and to potentially get those leaning on the fence. The speech attempted to show stark contrasts between the Trump/Pence, Biden/Harris tickets by highlighting tax policies and law and order or the lack thereof. However, the speech was filled with half truths and misinformation – this is par for the course in politics. This will likely be a race to the finish line and tomorrow we’ll see how Ivanka Trump and the President do with their respective speeches.
Also, thoughts and prayers are with those facing the destructive hurricane that is, Laura, a category 4 storm (at this time). It is expected to make landfall overnight/early morning and bring storm surges as high as 20 feet. The devastation from this storm is likely to be heartbreaking. Thoughts and prayers are also with those in Wisconsin, especially those who have been shot in overnight riots, as well as to Jacob Blake, who was shot earlier this week seven times in the back by police officers. Unfortunately, as The Kapital News has been saying since last year, protests and riots are coming, and they will intensify.
Lastly, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, is expected to make remarks tomorrow expanding the Fed’s view of inflation. Read between the lines – this means inflation is here, it’s going higher, and the Fed is willing to “tolerate” this for a period of time. Let’s see how long the people of this country and around the world are willing to tolerate purchasing power destruction, higher costs of living, and lower standards of living. You thought 2020 was wild and bad enough already – you ain’t seen nothing yet. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #RNC #DNC #Politics #USA #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Gold #Silver #Debt #Recession #Depression #Protests #Liberty #Revolution #Inflation
Most definitely a better performance this evening than was opening night. The stage was occupied by Eric and Tiffany Trump, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, and of course several others, but the keynote speaker this evening was that of First Lady, Melania Trump. Her speech was on point, as was her delivery and message. Of course there was some irony involved, but nevertheless, it was in the right direction. The First Lady wanted to stress unity over division and wanted to highlight her tenure and travels while being in the White House. She touched upon several key issues facing the United States and countries abroad, and how her experiences as First Lady have given her a different perspective on many topics. The Kapital News believes there is a genuineness to the First Lady, especially when it comes to the importance of family and her concern and interest pertaining to children. The Trump campaign may be wise to use the First Lady’s speech as a pivot, so as to adopt a message that is centered more about unity as opposed to division and party politics. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #RNC #DNC #Politics #USA #Congress #Economy #Recession #Depression #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
