Our typical Thursday discussion revolves around the initial jobless claims data, along with that of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and M2 money stock. With respect to initial jobless claims, the number came in at 884,000, which was higher than market forecasts, but below that one million figure we’ve been witnessing for far too long. However, in aggregate when we review the total number of Americans claiming some form of unemployment insurance benefit, this figure now stands at 29.6 million. This is the second weekly increase where last weeks change added over 2 million to the total count. The bulk of these increases have been seen in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program – a creation of the Nobody CARES Act. This program is for small business owners, contract workers, gig workers, and the like. So is this telling us something about the state of small business? On the monetary front, the European Central Bank, ECB, announced today that they will be keeping rates unchanged, and that they will be purchasing up to 1.35 trillion Euros of debt until June of 2021.
On the small business front, we highlight a recent article from Axios that covers a Goldman Sachs survey that questions 10,000 small businesses. There of course is some good news and some bad news. From the question, “Based on the situation today, do you think your business will survive?” An all-time survey low of 65% answered yes – the survey goes back to April. Those who answered, no, was at a survey high of 7%. While many small businesses are beginning to or are already completely open once again, a significant figure of 36% are claiming that without additional help from Congress, they will have to layoff workers and/or cut hours/pay. Further, 30% of respondents noted that without additional support from Congress, they will burn through their cash reserves by the end of the year. There are still many questions that need to be asked and answered and the distortionary effects that exist within the economy due to the policies implemented by Congress, the White House, and the Fed, make knowing the answers to these questions that much more difficult. One thing is certain, it is going to take a little while longer to gain a better picture of the real jobs market and the related economic fallout. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Unemployment #Depression #Recession #Inflation #USA #Gold #Liberty #Silver #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed