In today’s podcast we focus primarily on the history of the Great Financial Crisis, and how the decisions made during that time are still being felt to this day. When the government intervenes in the market, it will necessarily pick winners and losers – there’s only so much money to go around – some will get it (winners) and other will not (losers). This can lead to distrust within the public as many may view the winners as being politically connected, while the losers are lower on the political totem pole. This belief is then likely to fester into something larger and more divisive across the country.
During this time, we saw the rise of the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movements. Both being born out of such distrust and disdain for the government and major corporations. These movements were then adopted by the political parties – Republicans the Tea Party – Democrats the Occupy Wall Street movement. However, these two groups should have joined together to unite the people of the country and to call out the destructive nature of the big-government – big-business merger. This did not happen. Instead, we started down the path of extreme partisanship, which gave rise to populism and to President Trump. And because we continue to be a bailout nation – the Nobody CARES Act, along with the alphabet soup of emergency facilities at the Fed – and the country remains as divided as we have ever been – maybe since the Civil War. Unfortunately, the bailouts and the division is going to continue. And it will do so until it exhausts itself and leads to near or perhaps total economic, political, and social ruin. To hit rock bottom if you will. Let us pray this does not happen, but there is nowhere in sight any proactive measures to lead us out of this mess in which we find ourselves. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Jobs #USA #Debt #Liberty #Revolution
The state of our union is in disarray and decay. It’s a decline that has been in the works for years and it’s a combination of economic, social, political, and moral decay. What this election is showing us is how divided the country is and that net-net, this will prove to be a repudiation election of both major political parties. The problem of course is, millions of Americans across the country are looking for another option, but they can’t find one because of the death-grip that the two-party system has on this country. This simply means that Americans only have one of two choices – so take your pick. Structural issues are not and have not been addressed, let alone even discussed. But what is mentioned are the topics that send Americans into their respective silos and further apart from rational debate and discussion. Meanwhile, the system that feeds on itself is robbing our treasury to the total(s) of billions and trillions of dollars – and this is done right in front of the people – but they don’t see it because they’re too busy arguing about “partisan” issues. It appears that the old strategy of divide and conquer is alive and well. In short, the state of our union is a disgrace and an embarrassment, and we the people better wake up before this country and what she stands for is completely gone. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution #USA #Gold #Silver
The main topic of today’s podcast is the October jobs report, which was released last Friday following election day. Over the weekend, former VP, Joe Biden, was declared the winner and is the President-Elect. However, President Trump has yet to concede and is expected to continue with his court battles where he is alleging massive voter fraud. Prior to the election, there were rumors circulating that win or lose, the President might fire the Secretary of Defense, CIA Director, and FBI Director. Well, this evening, he has terminated Defense Secretary, Mark Esper. Perhaps next on the chopping block will be the CIA and FBI Directors? Also this evening, the lead prosecutor for election crimes within the Justice Department has resigned. This resignation is in protest to the recent memo from AG Barr, instructing DOJ prosecutors to look into voter fraud. At this time, it is still unclear as to whether the top prosecutor has resigned only from his current post or from the DOJ altogether. There’s still a few months to go until inauguration day, and the President can surely keep the Beltway drama alive for some time. 2020 is far from over. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Jobs #Economy #USA #Liberty #Revolution
A lot of data came over the wires today – economic and political. In today’s podcast we discuss the common Thursday topics of initial and continuing jobless claims, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and M2 money stock. Today was also the release of the initial reading for Q3 GDP, which came in at a record print of +33.1 percent. Such a large increase is no surprise to The Kapital News, and in fact, we have been discussing this for months. When you have the worst reading of GDP in Q2 at -31.4 percent, it’s not so difficult to come back with a big number in the subsequent quarter. This is especially more so the case when the federal government and Federal Reserve throw trillions of dollars (that we did not have), into the system. The question now is what happens moving forward? And also, do not forget that Q1 GDP contracted -5 percent. And the lockdowns and restrictions did not take hold until March on a large scale. So most of Q1 2020 was in the books prior to the COVID-19 actions. Again, this is something The Kapital News had been arguing throughout 2019 – that the economy was rolling over, and a recession was on the horizon – even before the onset of the pandemic. We also continue our coverage of early voting and the electoral college as analyzed by Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending 24 October were 751,000, maintaining a figure below that stubborn 800,000 mark for the second consecutive week. However, this is still a heartbreaking number, as before the pandemic, this statistic was in the low 200,000 range, week-to-week. So despite all the fiscal and monetary efforts, still seven/eight months into this downturn, we are still witnessing several hundred thousand layoffs per week. Continuing claims for the week ending 17 October are continuing lower and are now at 7.756 million, which is a week-over-week decline of 709,000. In aggregate, for all persons claiming a UI benefit, for the week ending, 10 October, 22.6 million Americans remained jobless.
The Fed’s balance sheet rolled over slightly from it’s all-time seen last week. The balance sheet gave back about $31 billion and now sits at $7.146 trillion. This roll off is part of the natural process of assets expiring that the Fed is holding – think the duration of a Treasury note, bill, or mortgage-backed security. Nonetheless, The Kapital News remains steadfast in our analysis that the Fed’s balance, along with other central banks, will continue to grind higher. The M2 money stock continues to make new all-time highs and now rests at $18.815 trillion. This is a year-over-year increase of over 24 percent. In the 40 years of data provided for this figure, there is only one time the year-over-year figure was higher, and that was two months ago in early September! The next closest figure was around 13 percent back in the early-to-mid 1980s. This is extremely worrisome and will prove detrimental to the system.
Early voting is now 81.3 million, with 52.9 million being mail ballots, and 28.4 million in-person. This continues to break records and is simply a staggering figure. This represents 59 percent of the total 2016 voter turnout, and if estimates for 2020 are correct, we’re likely at the 50 percent mark on the high range, should 160 million votes be cast in 2020. With a few more days to go and depending on the state, early voting can still take place tomorrow, and of course mail-in ballots will continue to make their way into election offices over the weekend and into election day. With such high turnout, we may very likely know who wins the election within a couple of days of 3 November. To the electoral college – should Biden win Florida, then it’s likely an early night, as this would greatly diminish the chances that Trump could win re-election. With more polls coming in across the wires, Real Clear Politics now gives Biden 356 electoral college votes to Trump’s 182. The biggest changes since yesterday were switching both Florida and Georgia into the Biden column. With respect to Five Thirty Eight, they are now giving Biden an 89 in 100 chance of winning to Trump’s 11 in 100. Their model is also awarding Biden the battleground states of PA, AZ, FL, NC, GA, OH, and even both single districts in ME and NE. Such a turn out gives Biden 347 electoral college votes to Trump’s 191. Yet despite this, it is still either man’s race and there are a few more days of campaigning to go. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #Vote #USA #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution
With only one week to go until 3 November, early voting continues to shatter through 2016 figures. Current early votes stand at 70.5 million with 47.2 million being mail ballots, and 23.3 million being in-person. This is now over 50 percent of the total turnout in 2016. It is estimated that this year will see anywhere between 150-160 million votes. Should the trajectory of early voting continue through this week, then it is highly possible that this will represent 50-70 percent of the total vote turnout of 2020. If this proves true, then it increases the likelihood that a winner will be announced on election night or within a day or two. However, if the race is shown to be close, especially in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania and Florida, then we can expect a legal battle up to the US Supreme Court, and this could takes weeks, if not months to resolve. Despite the probability that the Biden/Harris ticket will prove victorious, it is still very much either man’s race. This is 2020 and a lot can happen in a week to put it mildly. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #Economy #Liberty #Revolution #USA #Trump #Biden #Vote
With one week to go until election day, it is still very much either man’s race. However, with the consistency in the polling, both nationally and across the states, the probability is that Joe Biden will win this election. When analyzing the electoral college map, there are several avenues to victory for the Biden ticket, as opposed to a few for the President. But recall, in 2016, there were only a few avenues for then candidate Trump – and he won – so it can happen again.
Early voting is simply on a roll as we are now standing at 64.2 million votes being cast! Mail ballots represent the largest block with 43.2 million votes, while in-person accounts for 21 million. This is shattering the numbers for early voting in 2016 and some analysts project as high as 100 million votes may be in prior to election day, 3 November. If this is the case, or even close to it, then it is likely that we will know the winner on election night or within a day or two. Of course, if it’s a close race, then this may drag on for weeks, if not months, as it makes its way through the courts. Another indicator of an early election night, would be if Joe Biden should win the state of Florida. Should this happen, Biden is nearly guaranteed a victory. However, should Trump win Florida, as he did in 2016, then it’ll likely be a long night, unless Biden sweeps across the board in other battleground states.
Election 2020 and Joe Biden are much different than election 2016 and Hillary Clinton. An outsider versus an insider, straight talk against political correctness, no political track record versus a lifetime in politics, and a few others. Now, in the midst of a global pandemic and the greatest depression, coupled with the President having a political record on the books, changes the dynamic. Lots of Democrats “crossed the line” to vote for Trump in 2016 as did many Independents. There was also a large contingency that didn’t vote due to the unpopularity of the two candidates. Also, many Democrats who wanted Bernie Sanders to be the nominee, did not like how the DNC treated Sanders, and so they either didn’t vote, or voted third party. A lot of this drama that helped Trump in 2016 appears to be non-existent or at least much smaller than before. Will those same Democrats be comfortable giving Trump another four years, now that they know how he governs? Same question for Independents and even Republicans who were hesitant last time, but are they now not going to vote for Trump in 2020?
With one week left to go, it’s anybody’s guess, but what is not a guess, is the fact that the structural issues are not being addressed, nor will they likely be regardless who wins. What’s also a near 100 percent certainty is the continuation of the political, social, and economic decline and decay – again, because the structural issues are not being dealt with and because of the lack of leadership. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #Economy #Liberty #Revolution #Trump #Biden #USA
No one holds a candle to the type of election interference that the US engages in, but nevertheless, we heard from the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and Director of the FBI this evening about interference campaigns being run by Iran and Russia. Apparently, Iran is sending out emails to Americans with threatening statements to vote for a certain candidate. The Kapital News is sure that there are many other attacks and attempts underway, but this is what we are being informed of as of this evening – with only two weeks to go until election day.
We have discussed in previous podcasts the dangers of social media platforms and their effectiveness with respect to spreading misinformation and disinformation. With some deep pockets and/or a very creative mind, individuals, teams, campaigns, political groups, and yes, foreign actors, can shape political opinions, and with it, potentially drive election outcomes. This social media Pandora’s box has been opened, and the contents are not going back in anytime soon – if ever. And don’t forget, this is all going on while President Trump claims that it’s a rigged election if he should lose, but evidently everything is fine if should he win – this is outrageous and only goes to further divide, confuse, and frustrate the American people.
In other news, President Obama was on the campaign trail this evening in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – a battleground state. Attempting to be the “closer” for the Biden-Harris campaign. The Democrats are looking to regain Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the “blue wall.” If this should happen, then odds have it that Joe Biden will become the next President. Current polling would indicate that Biden has a lead in all three states, but so did Clinton in 2016 – this race is far from over. We shall see if President Obama’s message was enough to turn PA blue once again for the Democrats. Early vote counts are currently north of 44 million, representing about 32 percent of 2016 total voter turnout. It’s nearly 3-to-1 in the breakdown between mail ballots and in-person votes at this juncture. With more votes taking place in these early rounds, it increases the likelihood that we’ll know the winner within a day or two of the election. However, should there be some tight races in key battleground states, then it could take weeks or months to determine the winner of the White House. And buckle up – tomorrow evening is the second and final debate between President Trump and VP Joe Biden – anything can happen. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Elections2020 #Debates2020 #Economy #USA #Russia #Iran #China #Vote #Gold #Silver #Inflation #Debt #Bailouts #Jobs #Liberty #Revolution
This country is beyond its tipping point and the economic and political system is to blame – as are the people for allowing this to build up around them. The merger of big business with big government was always going to bring us to this point in time – it was merely a question as to when this would happen. Well, here we are. Taken with the two-party system, which is really just one party, has brought this nation to her knees, and because of the economic and political system, our choices are more of the same. This time with two, seventy-something years-old men, who, as we’ll put it nicely, have lost their fast ball. In such trying and dire times, we get to choose between a bombastic demagogue who takes zero responsibility and someone who has been in government for nearly fifty years who very much is a part of the problem and the system. This is pathetic, embarrassing, and a disgrace. And because these are bad choices, the country is still naturally split on who to vote for. It’s possible that there will be a red or blue wave, but it’s also possible that there’s a divided government – we don’t know which scenario is the worst one!
We are in the midst of the greatest depression. The reason we do not yet realize this is due to the fact that central governments and banks have thrown trillions of dollars into the system. All this has done is to buy the system some time. And in the interim, for these governments and central banks to give the newly printed money to their closest of friends and corporations. Meanwhile, small businesses and individuals are suffering, and unfortunately, this will continue. In fact, this is likely to get even worse. This is because the trillions of dollars have only served the purpose of keeping the system afloat. Once these dollars have been used and thus their effects diminished, then markets are going to have to face reality. This reality consists of, a commercial real estate collapse, millions of evictions, a countless number of insolvencies and bankruptcies, which will bring massive layoffs, residential real estate declines, and if the funny money cannot continue to lift equity prices, then massive selloffs in the equities markets. This podcast highlights the destructive nature of our system and provides an untold amount of data points and evidence affirming our argument. So the question becomes – when will you leave this two-party system and demand real change? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #USA #RNC #GOP #DNC
Wall Street did not like the fact that there was not another round of spending agreed to over the weekend or during the day’s trading session – equities sold off. This is the same song and dance we have witnessed several times before throughout 2018-2019 with the US-China trade talks, and the last several months with talks of more spending. Of course, we don’t have the money – but we guess, who cares?! Nonetheless, these stories are thrown out there to juice and pump stocks higher even though there isn’t really anything agreed to. But as we noted last week, as was the case in previous situations, there will come a day when the markets say enough talk – put up or shut up. Well that appears to have been the case today as noted by the selloff across the major indexes. Now, in overnight futures trading, we have the major indexes trading higher again on hopes that Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, along with the White House, and Republicans will continue talks tomorrow, and believe something can be agreed to prior to election day. These headlines are an insult, pure propaganda, and market manipulation, but we digress. And of course, it’s the country and the American people who suffer the consequences and are caught in the crossfire.
On the election front, some 31.3 million votes have already been cast, representing about 22.5 percent of the 2016 total vote turnout. This is quite astonishing and we may very well witness more than half the 2016 turnout occur before election day. This will likely lead to knowing on election night or the day after, who has won the Presidency – as opposed to having all or the majority of votes on election day. A potential con of all this early voting is voters may miss an, “October Surprise,” but we doubt this would have any major effect – most people know who they want to vote for and not much will sway that in either direction.
The President is campaigning heavily and has even been going to some strong red-states, such as Arizona and Georgia, thus signaling that the Trump campaign is concerned with the polling results coming out of these traditional red-states, which Trump won in 2016. President Obama will also be on the campaign trail this week for his former Vice President, as he makes stops in Pennsylvania. The race is still very much up for grabs, but if Biden is able to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he’s up in the polls for all three, then Joe Biden is likely the next President. This would even assume Trump wins the south as in 2016, Iowa, Nevada (which he lost in 2016), Texas, Arizona, and Ohio. So this paints a very big uphill battle for the President to gain those 270 electoral votes that are needed to cross the finish line. It can happen, but the path is slim. The last debate between the Presidential candidates is also taking place this Thursday. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Debates2020 #Inflation #Debt #Gold #Silver #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution
A recap of this week’s events pertaining to initial jobless claims, Presidential debates, market performance, negative rates, the broader election landscape with down ticket races, and debt and deficit figures. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Elections #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #Debates #Bailouts #USA
