Tag: Truth

Ep. 556 – Stagflation + Social Unrest
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 556 - Stagflation + Social Unrest
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As we discussed global food prices hitting a six-year high during yesterday’s podcast, it proved good timing as a couple news articles were published today highlighting this situation in Nigeria and Lebanon. Both of these countries have been discussed at length for a while on the podcast, and these articles serve as further evidence as to what we have been monitoring.

It is a part of the larger narrative that The Kapital News is attempting to weave. One that links together economics, politics, and society. In this instance, we are analyzing how past and current policies are leading to social unrest, political instability, and economic weakness. Highlighting the protests and riots that were sweeping the globe during 2019, The Kapital News stressed the importance of paying attention to these events, analyzing their causes, and warning that such events would likely take place in developed markets, and even the United States. In time, we were proven correct. Now, with the pandemic seemingly making its way to the rear-view mirror, and no sound solutions being implemented during 2020, has caused many people around the world to once again take to the streets against their governments. This will be a common theme throughout 2021 and beyond until there are true structural changes.

Some countries may be able to traverse these rough waters without much chaos or violence. However, such countries will likely prove the exception and not the rule. This means that a lot of geopolitical risks have not been fully discounted into the markets, which are trading at or near all-time record high valuations. The pandemic has already caused severe supply chain disruptions that will likely continue throughout this year and into the next. However, should more countries take to the streets, then this will put further pressure on global supply chains and result in higher prices for major commodities, which will further strain the economic situation. This will be a vicious cycle until the system has been exhausted, which will leave millions if not billions of people negatively impacted. The globe is awash in trillions of dollars of new debt and with little to show for it. As inflationary effects start to make their way into real goods, these problems will no longer be able to be avoided. The monetary cat-and-mouse game will be over and market forces will take charge and lead the correction. There is no easy solution to what plagues us and these market forces will be brutal – even though they are what is needed.

Other items discussed today were economic data releases for US retail sales and industrial production. Also, the daily market performance wrap-up and a brief mention of the Federal Reserve concluding their FOMC policy meeting tomorrow. Global markets will be anxiously awaiting to hear what Chairman Jay Powell has to say – because we are a centrally controlled global economy. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Stagflation #Debt #Markets #Jobs #Protests #USA #Liberty #Gold #Silver #Revolution #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Bonds #FoodPrices

Ep. 555 – Global Food Prices Rising
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 555 - Global Food Prices Rising
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Revolutions are fought on empty stomachs and with global food prices hitting a six-year high, only serves to increase the likelihood of further protests, riots, wars, and revolutions. This is especially true for the poorest of nations as food is so crucially important, scarce, and insecure to begin with. From supply-chain disruptions due to the pandemic, to volatile weather that has harmed production, to inflationary policies from governments and central bankers, a triple-whammy has been released and spares no one in its path.

The Kapital News has been discussing the interconnectedness of economics, politics, and society since we have been online – in fact, this is the purpose and mission of The Kapital News – to educate our audience on these connections by using the news of the day as real-world case studies. It is the weakest link of the chain that breaks first and such is the case with countries. We have unfortunately been seeing these poorer nations crumble one after the next due to external and internal pressures. However, there are common traits amongst them, such as, high levels of debt, political corruption, and high levels of inflation. All of these forces combined, in addition to several others, is a recipe for instability at best, and disaster at worst.

Some countries may be able to withstand some of these pressures and find solutions – we hope this happens. However, if history is any guide, chances are that the majority of nations will resort to protests, riots, wars, and revolutions. If such actions do occur, then we can hope that things are made better once the dust settles. But hope is not a strategy and time is of the essence. The globe was awash in protests and riots prior to the pandemic and it already appears in early 2021 that they are reigniting and gaining momentum. A political sea change is underway and the months and years ahead will try our institutions, constitutions, and humanity like never before. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #FoodPrices #Inflation #Protests #Riots #USA #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #Debt #Yields #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Liberty

Ep. 550 – $1.9 Trillion Mayhem
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 550 - $1.9 Trillion Mayhem
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With the $1.9 trillion spending bill all but certain to pass through Congress this week and make it to President Biden’s desk, we wanted to take a moment to provide some context. It was only a little over a decade ago when we were in the midst of the Great Financial Crisis or GFC. It was here that Congress decided to pass the Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP. It had a price tag of $700 billion. According to those who drafted the legislation and came up with the number, apparently this was large enough to save the US financial system, and thus the US economy. Fast-forward to where we are today, and just looking at a handful of spending measures that Congress has passed in one year’s time – it takes us to roughly $6.4 trillion! This is nearly 10x the amount of the TARP funds during the GFC, which was the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression.

The $6.4 trillion figure comes from the Nobody CARES Act 1.0, which was around $2.2 trillion. The Nobody CARES Act 2.0, which was passed last December as the spending from 1.0 was coming to an end, cost another $900 billion. This was accompanied by a $1.4 trillion spending measure just to “keep the lights on,” as this was for ordinary government expenditures. And now finally, at least for now, we have the $1.9 trillion monstrosity. This gives us a total of $6.4 trillion. This is nearly two full years of federal government revenues! It is thus easy to understand why the country is running multi-trillion dollar deficits. And to place this into further perspective, any one of those aforementioned spending measures would be one of the top 20 economies in the world by GDP. The total of $6.4 trillion would be the third largest behind the US and China. And more than $1 trillion above the GDP of Japan!

To add insult to injury, the $1.4 trillion spending bill was only good for through Q1 2021, which means another round will have to be passed or the government may have to shut down. This also does not take into consideration any further spending with respect to infrastructure, which is needed, healthcare policies, environmental policies, or the like, which are likely to be brought up with Democrats in control of the White House and Congress. So one of the saddest things about all of this is that all of this money is being borrowed and printed into existence and then spent, but with very little to show for it. All of this spending could have rebuilt this country’s infrastructure 2x or 3x over. And you can use your imagination on all the other items that may have been improved with that kind of money…Of course none of this is free. The inflation that has thus been created and unleashed is now underway and the costs will be historic and devastating. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Debt #Markets #Spending #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Jobs #Bailouts #Liberty #USA #Gold #Silver

Ep. 542 – Game Stop The System
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 542 - Game Stop The System
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Just when you thought the GameStop stock frenzy was over, the markets today give us a gain of nearly 104 percent in shares of the company. After hours trading is up another 83 percent to trade at $168/share. The concern of course is that this will most certainly lead to more retail and speculative traders coming into the stock in order to chase the price action. Have people not learned their lessons from last time? It was only a month ago. Many novice traders thought the stock price could only go up and wanted their hands on the shares at any price, even as the stock traded in the 300s, then 400s, per share. Then in short order, the price collapsed back to $40/share. A year ago, shares of the company were trading in the single digits.

These markets are broken and this type of action should serve as solid evidence that something is very much amiss. These types of events lend themselves for some people to attempt to take advantage of the situation by preying on the ignorance and lack of experience of others. Markets in their best and true form are supposed to be a win-win. Markets are here to provide people and businesses with the goods and services they need and want, thus benefiting the end-users that consume them, and the businesses that produce such goods or offer such services. But now, due to the asinine and reckless fiscal and monetary policies that have been implemented, people believe that money grows on trees and that stocks can only go up. This is extremely dangerous and the day of reckoning will be devastating when prices reflect the true underlying economy. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #GameStop #Bubbles #Markets #Liberty #USA #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Fraud

Ep. 540 – Yield Curve Control Coming?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 540 - Yield Curve Control Coming?
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With yields moving noticeably higher on the US 10 year note and 30 year bond, we can be certain that this is gaining the attention of central bankers, the Treasury Department, and investors. While some will and do argue that this increase in yields is a sign of future growth expectations, The Kapital News believes that the bulk of the increase is due to inflationary expectations. Utilizing the printing press as the cure for everything will only get an economy so far. You can print money, but you cannot print jobs, and you cannot print production. Given these yield increases and the volume of speeches, interviews, and conferences of Federal Reserve and Treasury Department officials, signals to us that they know they are running out of ammunition and runway. This is why we continue to hear the aggressive lobbying to pass the $1.9 trillion in additional spending. Such fiscal policy, financed via monetary policy will buy some more time – at least that is the hope. If yields continue their ascent, this may very well be the point of no-return and where the markets are saying enough is enough. All systems have a breaking point. There is only so much a person can drink and eat, or how far he can run before exhaustion. The same holds true for an economy or any system – there are limits. The global economic experiment of QE has been going on for over a decade and is likely nearing its limits, if it has not already hit such constraints. And understand that it will likely take a smaller yield to prick the markets’ bubble due to the fragility of the system.

What is left, is for policymakers to continue onward with their narrative. And this story can and will change with the wind if that is what is needed to calm the markets. So as yields continue their climb, it would not be surprising to hear a lot more Fed officials and others discussing the possibility of yield curve control. The yield curve is simply the graphical plot of Treasuries of differing maturities and connecting those dots, thus drawing a curve. The attempt to control it, is already something that the Fed and other central banks do. However, they do not openly say that is what they are doing. So if they come out and announce such a policy, then this allows for their narrative to stay alive for a little longer until it is on to something else. Despite how powerful central banks and governments are, they are not bigger nor more powerful than the markets. When the markets no longer buy these narratives, then it is look out below because there will be no policy measure to combat the coming correction. Policymakers are running out of time and they know it. It is now all about the narrative and keeping hope alive and hope is not a good strategy. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Fraud #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Commodities #USA #Liberty #Recession #Depression #Bailouts #FireCongress #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #Leadership

Ep. 537 – Inflation Announced
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 537 - Inflation Announced
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The Kapital News has been discussing and demonstrating how inflation has been here for years via the increase to money supply, and just importantly, the effects of inflation, known as price increases. Countries around the world in 2018 and 2019 (prior to the pandemic), were protesting and rioting in the streets. This was not because the cost of living was so affordable. Quite the contrary, where people could not afford to live and any minor price or tax increase unleashed the population to take to the streets. In more advanced economies, prices have been rising for basic necessities, such as food, energy, utilities, and medical costs. However, these rates in price growth were likely lower than is less developed nations. Yet, with respect to financial asset prices in developed economies, the world has seen and continues to witness record or near record prices in stocks, bonds, and real estate. This may be a temporary high where people believe that stocks can only go up. But in all likelihood, this is setting up to be one of the biggest bubbles ever created and thus its popping and subsequent decline will be one of the largest.

In low and mid-income countries around the globe, food prices are increasing at double-digit rates. Some countries are beginning to curb exports, thus putting further upward pressure on prices for agricultural goods. Today, Kraft-Heinz and ConAgra, announced that due to commodity price increases, that their customers are likely going to be paying higher prices for their goods at some point later this year. These statements are likely going to continue throughout the year and will be echoed by many companies across various sectors of the economy. The damage by federal governments and central banks has already been done. Now, the globe awaits its true effects and destruction of inflation. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Gold #Silver #bananarepublic #EndTheFed #USA #Liberty #Leadership #Recession #Protests #Depression #Debt #Spending #FireCongress #Jobs

Ep. 534 – Economic Match Made In Hell
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 534 - Economic Match Made In Hell
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It is highly evident that the sunlight between the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve no longer exists. The merger has been underway for years and is nearing its completion. Talk about the United States turning into a banana republic, well here it is. If you thought last year was a wild ride with respect to fiscal and monetary support, buckle up, because you ain’t seen anything yet. We know that Congress (Democrats), the Treasury Secretary, and Fed Chairman, are all hand-in-hand when it comes to the $1.9 trillion spending bill proposed by the Democrats and Biden administration. The argument is all about returning to full employment and how the passage of this bill will help to secure that goal. Furthermore, the Fed is completely behind it and willing to finance the deal (because we do not have the money), also arguing that full employment is their goal as well and how the Fed will remain accommodative until that end is met. Recall that one of the mandates of the Fed is to achieve and maintain full employment. The other is to achieve and maintain price stability.

This is just the opening salvo for what is going to be fiscal and monetary authorities gone wild. The $1.9 trillion is more about transfer payments, unemployment benefits, assistance to state finances, Covid-19 programs, and perhaps increasing the minimum wage to $15 per hour than anything else. This means that the Democrats will likely continue onward with the spending spree and attempt to tackle healthcare, the environment, and infrastructure. Some of these measures will likely pass and the cost is unknown, but it will be in the hundreds of billions, if not trillions in aggregate by the time the dust settles. The Congressional Budget Office is already predicting a national deficit north of $2 trillion for this fiscal year alone and this figure does not take into consideration any of the above spending measures.

Speaking of jobs, for the week ending 6 February, 793,000 Americans filed an initial jobless claim, which was above market expectations. The prior week’s figure was revised upward by 33,000 to rest at 812,000. For all programs, for the week ending 23 January, 20.4 million Americans continue to receive some form of unemployment insurance. This is a week-over-week increase of nearly 2.6 million. This would give us an unemployment rate closer to 14.3 percent as opposed to the official rate of 6.3 percent. We are nearly one year into the lockdowns and restrictions, and we continue to witness this type of carnage in the jobs market. This is after several trillions of dollars were flushed into the system. So what makes $1.9 trillion so magical if several trillion dollars could not stop the damage?

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet hit a new all-time high at $7.44 trillion dollars. Some $30 billion above its previous high. With respect to M1 and M2 money stock, both of these measures are near their respective all-time highs, which were hit within the last few weeks. These numbers will continue higher as fiscal and monetary policies continue their expansion. This is by definition inflation and will prove utterly destructive to the financial system, and more importantly to the real economy. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Markets #Fraud #Fake #FireCongress #Liberty #USA #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Jobs #Bailouts #Spending #Recession #Depression #Protests #bananarepublic #EndTheFed

Ep. 527 – A Central Banker’s World
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 527 - A Central Banker's World
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It is a central banker’s world and we are the lucky ones to be living in it (sarcasm). If you find yourself reading an article on a particular central banker or central bank then you will know all too well how these figures and institutions are praised as opposed to scrutinized. You will also notice a trend of these figures gaining more power in politics. Janet Yellen for one, was the former Chair of the Federal Reserve, and is now the Treasury Secretary. And with the collapsing government coalition in Italy, the Italian President is tapping the shoulder of Mario Draghi, the former President of the European Central Bank for assistance. If Mr. Draghi’s efforts are successful in pulling together a coalition, then he may very well find himself as the next Prime Minister of Italy.

Last week we highlighted the meetings at the World Economic Forum and talks of “The Great Reset.” We also highlighted the global economic projections by the IMF. Is it just coincidental that the same people who are invited to the WEF and serve as members on panel discussions and as keynote speakers, are also people in positions of power to move these types of agendas forward? The recent market volatility has of course caught the attention of politicians and regulators alike and we can be all but certain that more laws and regulations will be placed on the markets and the people. Recent market activity and movements on social media platforms were not organic. Rather, these were sinister ploys to achieving an end – and we are going to find out soon what that is. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Markets #Liberty #EndTheFed #Revolution #Debt #Inflation #bananarepublic #Gold #Silver #USA #Protests

Ep. 526 – Coup of the Day
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 526 - Coup of the Day
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Myanmar, India, and Russia, oh my! To all of those out there who were ecstatic to see 2020 come to and end and to usher in 2021 – be careful what you wish for. This weekend saw protests in Russia, and India, and a military coup take place in Myanmar. The Myanmar military has seized power, and declared a state of emergency that will last at least one year until new elections are held. This is a fluid situation and major countries and the United Nations are condemning the actions of the military. The cause for the coup was none other than allegations of election fraud in Myanmar’s November elections. Doesn’t this story sound familiar?

In India, farmers from across the country marched and drove their tractors to the capital of New Delhi. This is on the back of new legislation whereby farmers believe that their land will be devalued and they will no longer be able to receive higher guaranteed prices for their goods from the government market. Instead, they will have to trade in the open market and fear corporations will hurt them with respect to prices. Despite the recent growth in India, a significant portion of the population still relies on agriculture for their livelihood.

In Russia, for the second consecutive weekend, protesters took to the streets. Some 5,300 protesters were arrested nationwide. While most were released later that day, this shows the scope of these protests and their movement. Much of this stems from anti-corruption protester, Aleksei Navalny, who was poisoned last year and spent weeks in a German hospital. Navalny returned to Russia, despite the attempt on his life. Upon his arrival to Russia, Navalny was arrested and sentenced to 30 days. Protesters are calling for his release. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is calling for strict punishments, most likely to send a message to current and future protesters. At this juncture, strong-handedness may very well serve to increase tensions and prolong the protests.

The geopolitical climate is hot and most financial markets are not factoring in the slightest of wrong moves that could trigger several eruptions worldwide. In a global economy that remains on shaky ground, any political instability will simply add to the uncertainties, cause further supply disruptions, thus contributing to higher costs for goods and services, at a time when millions around the world are unemployed. This scenario in and of itself can likely lead to further political instability as costs rise, wages drop, jobs are lost, and people cannot find recourse in their countries and within their governments they will likely protest and seek change. 2020 was just the appetizer. Will 2021 be the main course, or just another appetizer for what is to come? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Protests #Revolution #Markets #Peace #Liberty #USA #Russia #India #Myanmar #Inflation #Gold #Silver #bananarepublic #EndTheFed #FireCongress #Debt #Recession #Depression #Jobs

Ep. 525 – Weekly Wrap Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 525 - Weekly Wrap Up
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Another wild week in politics and the markets as the “GameStop” et al frenzy continues onward. Yesterday, the Department of Labor informed us that another 847,000 Americans filed for initial jobless claims during the prior week. There was also an upward revision to last week’s figures, which now stands at 914,000. All in for all programs gives us nearly 18.3 million Americans claiming benefits. Roughly speaking, this translates into an unemployment rate of nearly 13 percent, which is much higher than the official stats. A slight decrease was witnessed with respect to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and M1 money stock, both of which hit record highs last week. However, M2 money stock continued its ascent and hit a new all-time high at $19.56 trillion. The Fed concluded their first FOMC meeting of the year and remain on guard to do what it takes to lend support to the economy. The Fed continues to make calls for further fiscal policy measures from the Congress and is an advocate for everyone getting vaccinated against Covid-19. Despite the dovish stance from the Fed, the markets suffered their worst week since October. This may very well be a typical market correction in the making, which is usually defined as a drop in prices from recent highs of 10 percent. Or, perhaps this is the start of a bigger sell-off. Time will tell, but on a valuations front, the stock market is at or near all-time highs across several metrics. Earlier discussion this week focused on “The Great Reset” and the IMF’s world economic outlook, so be sure to check out those podcasts as well. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Markets #Fraud #Jobs #Liberty #Revolution #Justice #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #Debt #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress