Tag: Stimulus

Ep. 534 – Economic Match Made In Hell

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 534 - Economic Match Made In Hell
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It is highly evident that the sunlight between the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve no longer exists. The merger has been underway for years and is nearing its completion. Talk about the United States turning into a banana republic, well here it is. If you thought last year was a wild ride with respect to fiscal and monetary support, buckle up, because you ain’t seen anything yet. We know that Congress (Democrats), the Treasury Secretary, and Fed Chairman, are all hand-in-hand when it comes to the $1.9 trillion spending bill proposed by the Democrats and Biden administration. The argument is all about returning to full employment and how the passage of this bill will help to secure that goal. Furthermore, the Fed is completely behind it and willing to finance the deal (because we do not have the money), also arguing that full employment is their goal as well and how the Fed will remain accommodative until that end is met. Recall that one of the mandates of the Fed is to achieve and maintain full employment. The other is to achieve and maintain price stability.

This is just the opening salvo for what is going to be fiscal and monetary authorities gone wild. The $1.9 trillion is more about transfer payments, unemployment benefits, assistance to state finances, Covid-19 programs, and perhaps increasing the minimum wage to $15 per hour than anything else. This means that the Democrats will likely continue onward with the spending spree and attempt to tackle healthcare, the environment, and infrastructure. Some of these measures will likely pass and the cost is unknown, but it will be in the hundreds of billions, if not trillions in aggregate by the time the dust settles. The Congressional Budget Office is already predicting a national deficit north of $2 trillion for this fiscal year alone and this figure does not take into consideration any of the above spending measures.

Speaking of jobs, for the week ending 6 February, 793,000 Americans filed an initial jobless claim, which was above market expectations. The prior week’s figure was revised upward by 33,000 to rest at 812,000. For all programs, for the week ending 23 January, 20.4 million Americans continue to receive some form of unemployment insurance. This is a week-over-week increase of nearly 2.6 million. This would give us an unemployment rate closer to 14.3 percent as opposed to the official rate of 6.3 percent. We are nearly one year into the lockdowns and restrictions, and we continue to witness this type of carnage in the jobs market. This is after several trillions of dollars were flushed into the system. So what makes $1.9 trillion so magical if several trillion dollars could not stop the damage?

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet hit a new all-time high at $7.44 trillion dollars. Some $30 billion above its previous high. With respect to M1 and M2 money stock, both of these measures are near their respective all-time highs, which were hit within the last few weeks. These numbers will continue higher as fiscal and monetary policies continue their expansion. This is by definition inflation and will prove utterly destructive to the financial system, and more importantly to the real economy. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Markets #Fraud #Fake #FireCongress #Liberty #USA #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Jobs #Bailouts #Spending #Recession #Depression #Protests #bananarepublic #EndTheFed

Ep. 378 – No Consumer, No Sale

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 378 - No Consumer, No Sale
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The economic hits just keep on coming with two dismal reports being released. The first was retail sales – plunging 16.4% for the month of April. This is the worst reading ever and was well below market expectations of a decline of 12%. All categories were harshly hit, primarily driven by the lock-downs due to COVID-19. Some of the worst hit, and no surprise, were clothing and accessories, electronics, appliances, and furniture, and restaurants and food service. On the back of this data, we also have JC Penney filing for bankruptcy this evening. This is another blow to the retail sector, as well as commercial real estate, and adds to a list of other big name retailers filing for the protection. Another notable report pertains to industrial production, which collapsed by 11.2% for the month of April – also the largest monthly decline since records have been kept. On a year-over-year basis, the decline is over 15% – this kind of decline has not been seen since the GFC, the end of WWII, and the Great Depression. Nonetheless, the DOW, the NASDAQ, and S+P 500 all closed the day in the green. However, what also had a very strong performance was that of gold and silver. Are the precious metals starting to sniff out the effects of money printing, deficit spending, geopolitical uncertainties, and the realization of the true economic and financial damage that likely lies ahead? Time will tell, but it is most definitely worth the time to pay some attention to the precious metals.

This evening in the House, Nancy Pelosi’s, “HEROES Act,” was passed along party lines and will now head to the Senate where it is all but certain to be voted down. However, it is also likely that there will be another round of spending – the question will be, when, and how much does it cost? Also in Washington, this afternoon, the President announced that the US will have a vaccine ready for use by the end of this year. This blows past all previous comments that the earliest possible would be 12-18 months, which would have taken us into 2021. Nevertheless, “Operation Warp Speed,” as it is to be known, is underway to develop a vaccine in record time and the President has also made comments that the military is to administer the vaccine. We don’t like the sound of that and this is well deserving of further explanation. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #EndTheFed #Debt #Gold #Recession #Depression #USA #COVID19

Ep. 344 – Stimulus to the Rescue!

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 344 - Stimulus to the Rescue!
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Well it’s official – the US Senate late in the evening passed the $2T stimulus package. Some of the scariest words out there are, “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.” Even before this stimulus measure was passed, there have been comments about conducting another round of stimulus. These people are sick. And they clearly have no idea what awaits us on the other side. For if they did, I would hope that they would not have advocated and voted for such a program. Of course, what awaits us on the other side is inflation, if not hyperinflation. The amount of debt and currency that needs to be “created” to fund this nonsense is likely going to be in the ten(s) of trillions of dollars.

So let’s get this straight. The US economy quasi shuts down for a month, maybe two, and we have to juice the markets with at least $6T? US GDP is around $21T, so why do we need so much “stimulus” from the Fed and the Congress? Do people and corporations not have any savings at all? This is the bottomless pit, and the government, along the Fed think they can fill it up with “stimulus.” This would be laughable if it wasn’t so destructive to so many people. This short-term shot of “juice” is going to take years to be paid back and we’re all going to feel it when the effects of inflation/hyperinflation take root. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #Bailouts #Debt #Republic #Congress #USA #EndTheFed

Ep. 338 – The Great Unraveling

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 338 - The Great Unraveling
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We don’t know what the historians will call this time in which we currently find ourselves, but if we may, we would suggest they call it “The Great Unraveling.” A recession in the United States as well as most of the globe is all but certain, especially on a technical level. However, given the fact that the global economy was already slowing prior to the onset of COVID19 and the oil price war, it is likely that the world is headed towards a depression. We do not say this lightly. This is a very serious and dire situation as this will hurt millions if not billions of people on a number of fronts. The world needs leadership. And the world needs the truth. And unfortunately, the world is in short supply of both.

Here in the United States it’s not a question of bailouts, fiscal and monetary stimulus, it’s simply a question of how much is all of this going to cost? One industry after the next is lining up in Washington, DC seeking “assistance.” On the fiscal side, every time it’s discussed, the price tag goes higher and higher. From $850 billion to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, and we don’t know if we’re finished. If you think this is a lot of money – it is. But it doesn’t hold a candle to what the central banks are doing. The Federal Reserve has been pumping hundred of billions into the repo market. They’ve cut rates by 150bps over the last two weeks. They’ve made tapping the discount window more accommodative. And they’ve reduced the reserve requirements for banks with respect to cash on hand against deposits. Oh, and they’re still not done. Why does this continue? Are these people completely unaware that the reason we’re in The Great Unraveling is because of these very programs and actions that have been at the helm for over a decade? Again, there is no leadership to say that enough is enough. Or that these policies are not the cure, but rather the disease.

The funding of all of this, especially the bailouts and fiscal measures will be financed through debt. This means that the US Treasury is going to have to issue US Treasuries across the curve. This additional supply coming to the market is likely to depress bond prices, thus increasing yields (or borrowing costs). In addition, given the wave of global debt coming due, many countries around the world, especially emerging markets are selling their US Treasury holdings because they need US Dollars to satisfy their dollar denominated debts. This is also occurring at a time in the Foreign Exchange markets, where many (virtually all) of these currencies have been greatly weakened against the US Dollar. This then puts additional pressure on these same countries because it now takes more of their domestic currencies to be swapped for dollars. This is also coupled during a time of a global slowdown where prices for commodities are at decade(s) if not all-time lows. Many of these emerging economies are highly dependent on commodities for the economic survival. So it’s easily evident that much of the world is facing single, double, triple, and even quadruple whammies. This is a vicious downward spiral that will not find a bottom for some time and it will likely not end until this bottom is found. Central authorities are rendered impotent in such an environment despite their intentions and actions. Markets must be allowed to clear.

The people in the United States of America should be ashamed of what we have allowed to happen in and to our country. This is not the Constitutional Republic of Washington, Jefferson, Adams, and Franklin. Nor is this a country of free-market capitalism – because clearly what exists in this country is NOT free-market capitalism. This is the time for leadership, this is the time for the truth, this is the time to restore our country to our founding principles, and this is the time to place our faith and confidence in each other. Otherwise, this country will truly cease to be a country of, by, and for the people. Stay safe. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #TheGreatUnraveling #Debt #USA #Gold #Bonds #Oil #Truth #Peace #Bailouts #EndTheFed #1776