We don’t know what the historians will call this time in which we currently find ourselves, but if we may, we would suggest they call it “The Great Unraveling.” A recession in the United States as well as most of the globe is all but certain, especially on a technical level. However, given the fact that the global economy was already slowing prior to the onset of COVID19 and the oil price war, it is likely that the world is headed towards a depression. We do not say this lightly. This is a very serious and dire situation as this will hurt millions if not billions of people on a number of fronts. The world needs leadership. And the world needs the truth. And unfortunately, the world is in short supply of both.
Here in the United States it’s not a question of bailouts, fiscal and monetary stimulus, it’s simply a question of how much is all of this going to cost? One industry after the next is lining up in Washington, DC seeking “assistance.” On the fiscal side, every time it’s discussed, the price tag goes higher and higher. From $850 billion to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, and we don’t know if we’re finished. If you think this is a lot of money – it is. But it doesn’t hold a candle to what the central banks are doing. The Federal Reserve has been pumping hundred of billions into the repo market. They’ve cut rates by 150bps over the last two weeks. They’ve made tapping the discount window more accommodative. And they’ve reduced the reserve requirements for banks with respect to cash on hand against deposits. Oh, and they’re still not done. Why does this continue? Are these people completely unaware that the reason we’re in The Great Unraveling is because of these very programs and actions that have been at the helm for over a decade? Again, there is no leadership to say that enough is enough. Or that these policies are not the cure, but rather the disease.
The funding of all of this, especially the bailouts and fiscal measures will be financed through debt. This means that the US Treasury is going to have to issue US Treasuries across the curve. This additional supply coming to the market is likely to depress bond prices, thus increasing yields (or borrowing costs). In addition, given the wave of global debt coming due, many countries around the world, especially emerging markets are selling their US Treasury holdings because they need US Dollars to satisfy their dollar denominated debts. This is also occurring at a time in the Foreign Exchange markets, where many (virtually all) of these currencies have been greatly weakened against the US Dollar. This then puts additional pressure on these same countries because it now takes more of their domestic currencies to be swapped for dollars. This is also coupled during a time of a global slowdown where prices for commodities are at decade(s) if not all-time lows. Many of these emerging economies are highly dependent on commodities for the economic survival. So it’s easily evident that much of the world is facing single, double, triple, and even quadruple whammies. This is a vicious downward spiral that will not find a bottom for some time and it will likely not end until this bottom is found. Central authorities are rendered impotent in such an environment despite their intentions and actions. Markets must be allowed to clear.
The people in the United States of America should be ashamed of what we have allowed to happen in and to our country. This is not the Constitutional Republic of Washington, Jefferson, Adams, and Franklin. Nor is this a country of free-market capitalism – because clearly what exists in this country is NOT free-market capitalism. This is the time for leadership, this is the time for the truth, this is the time to restore our country to our founding principles, and this is the time to place our faith and confidence in each other. Otherwise, this country will truly cease to be a country of, by, and for the people. Stay safe. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #TheGreatUnraveling #Debt #USA #Gold #Bonds #Oil #Truth #Peace #Bailouts #EndTheFed #1776