So with another month in the books the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released the jobs report for the month of August. Headlines would tell you that the unemployment rate declined to 8.4%. However, what you’re not likely going to hear is that permanent job losers increased by 534,000 to 3.4 million. This is a figure not seen since 2013 still coming off the highs seen during the GFC. What the headlines also will not tell you is that when you look at the Department of Labor’s report, which is a part of our typical Thursday data review podcast, it noted that for the week ending 15 August, some 29.2 million Americans were claiming some form of unemployment insurance – a week-over-week increase of nearly 2.2 million. Well if one takes this number and divides it by 160 million (size of labor force), you get 18.25%! This is nowhere near the headline 8.4% figure. Now of course there also still exists many distortionary effects when it comes to the jobs numbers, in addition to other variables, and these distortions come from the “Nobody Cares Act,” the PPP loans/grants, and various “emergency” programs from the Federal Reserve, and states’ moratoriums and the like.
These policies make it very difficult to gain a full-picture of the true jobs situation. This is why we highlight the permanent job losers stats, along with the total number of Americans claiming unemployment insurance benefits. If one wants to come up with the 8.4% figure, simply take the continuing claims data and divide by the 160 million labor force (of course account for rounding). Still the point is made, because continuing claims data does not take into consideration those who claim various federal programs that have been implemented due to the pandemic – which again, goes to show the distortionary effects in real-time. If you want the fuller picture, then stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Unemployment #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Protests #Recession #Depression #Liberty #Revolution
Just yesterday we asked if the risk-reward breakdown was signaling danger ahead? Well as timing would have it, there was a large market pullback today across the major indexes. The question moving forward of course is, is there more downside to come, or is this just a much needed “breather” in a very overbought and overextended rally, whereby the next leg up is to be realized? Well, as we know, anything is possible when you have policymakers around the world doing their best to keep asset prices elevated. Unfortunately, these governments and central banks are doing so at any cost. And these costs are going to be truly devastating to the masses. These costs will show up, and many of them are already here, with some of the most destructive being that of inflation and hyperinflation.
Further today during our discussion was the initial jobless claims number which came in at 881,000 for the week ending 29 August. For the entire month of August, initial claims totaled over 5.1 million Americans. When we take into consideration all of the unemployment benefits being paid out, over 29.2 million Americans are receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 15 August, so there is a lag involved, but what is most startling, is that the week-over-week change was an additional 2.195 million Americans claiming benefits. This is clearly in the wrong direction, but consistent with our analysis of the many distortionary effects that exist within the system due to various policy programs from the government and the Federal Reserve. A fuller and more accurate picture of the jobs market will be made known once the moratoriums and other policies are lifted and/or exhausted. Tomorrow, the August jobs report will be released. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #Gold #Bailouts #Unemployment #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Silver #Recession #Depression #USA #Protests #Liberty #Revolution
Markets making new highs and yet the volatility index, the VIX, is also moving higher. What might this suggest for markets? Despite the massive rally across the major indexes, the VIX has held relatively firm. But with the VIX moving up with the S&P 500 of which it tracks, might this be a warning of more volatility ahead? With valuations breaking one record after the next on a daily basis, the risk-reward picture is definitely not pointing in favor of adding more risk to one’s portfolio. For example, just yesterday, Apple, Inc.’s market cap was larger than the entirety of the Russell 2000 index! However, if enough people believe that printing presses are panaceas, then this mania may very well last for longer than many think possible. Time will tell.
On another risk-reward note, the Trump Administration is floating a story that a COVID-19 vaccine may very well be available by the end of October to 1 November. Let’s see, what also is around that time-frame? Oh, yes, that’s right, the presidential election. So a process that usually takes years is now going to approve a vaccine within months? Talk about “Operation Warp Speed.” And of course, The Kapital News imagines that there will be massive insider trading on this information as the Administration is going to know in advance what companies are going to be approved. And on top of this, because this is a rush-job, the same pharma companies that are going to print a mint on the back of this news, will also be immune from any potential lawsuit, should their vaccine(s) not prove safe and/or effective. How can they lose? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Gold #Jobs #Bailouts #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #Depression #Recession #USA
A national eviction moratorium has been put into place until the end of the year. This is from the Trump Administration using a law that grants power to the CDC to make such a decision. This is somewhat of a head-scratcher as the Trump Administration repeatedly says that we’re in a V-shaped recovery and that everything is fine – then why the nationwide moratorium? Also, what happens on 1 January 2021 when the moratorium is lifted? What happens with all the back rents due? How do landlords navigate this terrain? Also fitting with today’s show title, are the questions around taxation, the Federal Reserve, money printing, the debts and deficits, student loans, shortfalls in state and local governments, and the under-funding of pensions across this country, amongst others. One unsustainable issue and item after the next and not a peep from a policymaker as to how this is all going to unfold or how this game is going to end. Can you say defaults? Can you say insolvencies? Can you say inflation? Who gets to pay for all of this because there is no free lunch? We’re looking for some truth and leadership and it’s nowhere to be found. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Gold #BananaRepublic #Jobs #Bailouts #Silver #EndTheFed #Recession #Depression
During our discussion today we recap the Republican National Convention, the Federal Reserve’s new policy stance with respect to inflation and employment, and we also cover economic data pertaining to jobless claims and the money supply. Hint, hint, inflation is here, stagflation is here, and hyperinflation is even a possibility in the not too distant future, even here in the USA. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #RNC #DNC #Politics #Economy #USA #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Inflation #Stagflation #Hyperinflation #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Protests #Liberty #Revolution
Day three of the Republican National Convention and the keynote speaker was that of VP Mike Pence. His speech did what it had to do to reach the Administration’s base and to potentially get those leaning on the fence. The speech attempted to show stark contrasts between the Trump/Pence, Biden/Harris tickets by highlighting tax policies and law and order or the lack thereof. However, the speech was filled with half truths and misinformation – this is par for the course in politics. This will likely be a race to the finish line and tomorrow we’ll see how Ivanka Trump and the President do with their respective speeches.
Also, thoughts and prayers are with those facing the destructive hurricane that is, Laura, a category 4 storm (at this time). It is expected to make landfall overnight/early morning and bring storm surges as high as 20 feet. The devastation from this storm is likely to be heartbreaking. Thoughts and prayers are also with those in Wisconsin, especially those who have been shot in overnight riots, as well as to Jacob Blake, who was shot earlier this week seven times in the back by police officers. Unfortunately, as The Kapital News has been saying since last year, protests and riots are coming, and they will intensify.
Lastly, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, is expected to make remarks tomorrow expanding the Fed’s view of inflation. Read between the lines – this means inflation is here, it’s going higher, and the Fed is willing to “tolerate” this for a period of time. Let’s see how long the people of this country and around the world are willing to tolerate purchasing power destruction, higher costs of living, and lower standards of living. You thought 2020 was wild and bad enough already – you ain’t seen nothing yet. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #RNC #DNC #Politics #USA #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Gold #Silver #Debt #Recession #Depression #Protests #Liberty #Revolution #Inflation
Most definitely a better performance this evening than was opening night. The stage was occupied by Eric and Tiffany Trump, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, and of course several others, but the keynote speaker this evening was that of First Lady, Melania Trump. Her speech was on point, as was her delivery and message. Of course there was some irony involved, but nevertheless, it was in the right direction. The First Lady wanted to stress unity over division and wanted to highlight her tenure and travels while being in the White House. She touched upon several key issues facing the United States and countries abroad, and how her experiences as First Lady have given her a different perspective on many topics. The Kapital News believes there is a genuineness to the First Lady, especially when it comes to the importance of family and her concern and interest pertaining to children. The Trump campaign may be wise to use the First Lady’s speech as a pivot, so as to adopt a message that is centered more about unity as opposed to division and party politics. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #RNC #DNC #Politics #USA #Congress #Economy #Recession #Depression #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
In this week’s weekly wrap up we discuss the Democratic National Convention, our thoughts on the upcoming Republican National Convention, and continue our commentary on the economic data and structural issues facing this country. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #DNC #RNC #Economy #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #Protests #USA # 2020 #Recession #Depression #Congress #Debt
Tonight concluded the Democratic National Convention with Joe Biden accepting the nomination and giving remarks before the country. His tone and speech were consistent with his most recent messaging, being that of unity and hope for the future and attempting to drive out the divisiveness across the country. As has been the case throughout this convention, there has been the attempt to show Biden as an empathetic, down-to-earth, average “Joe.” This may very well prove successful as it does draw stark contrasts between Biden and Trump. While his speech hit several key points and was delivered rather well, The Kapital News does not believe that this was Mr. Biden’s shining moment. However, with a consistent and persistent message of a calm and steady hand coupled with empathy for everyday Americans, this may be effective enough to end up in the White House. Next week, the RNC will have their week to highlight the Trump Administration and the Republican Party’s platform and vision. Do not forget that both of these conventions are three-ringed circuses offering the same “solutions” to the same problems and we’re supposed to believe that this time is going to be different…wake up!
Initial jobless claims for the week ending 15 August are unfortunately again above that psychological 1 million figure. Due to the various government programs in place and attempts to keep people on payroll, whether there was demand for their services or not, created a major distortionary effect in the jobs market (amongst others), which makes it difficult to get a true picture of the employment landscape. Nevertheless, this figure is clearly in the wrong direction and this does not take into consideration the various moratoriums that are still in effect, nor the millions of evictions waiting in the wings, nor the massive wave of insolvencies that will ensue once funds are exhausted and moratoriums are lifted. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #DNC #Biden #Economy #2020 #Recession #Gold #Depression #Jobs #Bailouts
Day two of the Democratic National Convention had a number of prominent speakers from former Secretaries of State, Colin Powell and John Kerry, former Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, former Presidents Carter and Clinton, and lastly, the keynote speaker was Jill Biden, wife of Joe Biden. We witnessed a similar tone and continuation of strategy that was present during day one of the convention.
The Democrats appear to be attacking President Trump head on while leaving the Republican Party out of their line of sight. This may prove beneficial as the Dems attempt to recruit as many Republicans as they can, and/or at the very least attempt to appeal to Independents who don’t want to continue to hear the divisiveness between the two parties. If one key argument is that Joe Biden can unite the country, then there’s at least some logic to keeping the attacks focused on Trump as opposed to the Republican Party.
For day three of the convention the heavy-hitters will be VP candidate, Senator Kamala Harris, and President Barack Obama. Despite the amount of political “talent” that may be present during the D’s and R’s conventions, remember that it’s all a smoke and mirrors show. A further attempt to divide and conquer and pretend that either party represents the answer(s) to the many issues plaguing the nation. This is ridiculous on its face as these two parties have been the cause of so many of these very issues and simply perpetuate them and make them worse. Please remain focused on the core structural issues that we discuss here on a daily basis. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #DNC #Economy #2020 #Recession #Depression #Gold #Protests #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic
