A recap of this week’s events pertaining to initial jobless claims, Presidential debates, market performance, negative rates, the broader election landscape with down ticket races, and debt and deficit figures. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Elections #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #Debates #Bailouts #USA
Two separate townhalls took place this evening in lieu of what should have been the second debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden. Nonetheless, the American people had a chance to watch these townhall events and for the public to ask questions of these two men running for the Presidency. As has been the case in prior townhalls, neither man derailed his campaign. Although there were clear differences in style and temperament, which of course should be no surprise. President Trump tends to be more aggressive, combative, and loud, while Biden tends to be more laid back, reserved, and civil. It is very likely that these differences in style and personality will drive the election results. People either want another four years of President Trump and his behavior and antics or they do not. Nearly 20 million people have already cast their votes, and come election day, it’s possible that half the country may have already voted.
On the initial jobless claims front, another 898,000 Americans filed an initial claim. This runs counter to the argument that this is a super V-shaped recovery. This was well above market expectations, which were around 820,000-825,000 – which is still a high figure. The previous week’s number was also revised upward by 5,000. In total, for persons claiming unemployment benefits, 25.3 million Americans are still receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 26 September and represents a decrease from the prior week of some 215,000 Americans. This is still a staggering and stubbornly high number. Further, we are still contending with the figures coming from the state of California being on pause as they make their way through their backlog of claims and implement a fraud prevention system. This is surely distortionary when attempting to gain a fuller picture of the jobs market – but we have been contending with distortions for months due to fiscal and monetary actions.
The increase in claims, however, is indicative of continuing stress in the economy and would be in agreement with what The Kapital News has been warning about for months. Mainly that fiscal and monetary policy will only get you so far, and that a printing press cannot print jobs. So when taking into consideration the insolvencies and bankruptcies, evictions, weakness in commercial and residential real estate markets, and subsequent layoffs that are waiting in the wings – it’s unfortunately not surprising that we continue to witness such job loss and future uncertainty. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debates #Jobs #Elections #USA #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Bailouts
With only a few weeks to go until election day, it’s anybody’s guess if there will be an October surprise or two. A couple of stories out recently pertain to the unmasking of US citizens who also happened to be members of the Trump campaign in 2016 – this story has been peddled by President Trump for years, where he has gone so far to say President Obama has committed treason and should be prosecuted. Well, a prosecutor assigned to this case at the Justice Department has concluded that the Obama Administration did not break the law. This of course upset the President, and when asked if he would keep Attorney General Bill Barr as AG should he win re-election, the President replied, “no comment.” This is just another example of the boy who cries wolf, where the President has been making several claims about several reports over the last few years, only to turn out to be nothing – no arrests, no prosecutions, no fines, etc…
Another story comes from the New York Post pertaining to Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Allegedly there are emails and photos that suggest Joe Biden was aware of Hunter’s business dealings with Ukraine and perhaps other foreign countries. The timing of all of this is highly suspect being so close to election day. So the reasonable question to ask is, is this the truth or just a political hit being used to sway an election? The Biden campaign continues to deny any allegations that Joe Biden was aware of his son’s business dealings and played a role in such affairs.
There is desperation in the air as we get closer to 3 November and the Trump campaign has a big hill to climb to regain the Presidency – but it can happen – there are a couple of avenues to winning. However, relitigating the Clinton email scandal, the unmasking situation, hyping up other reports and investigations, and now the Biden email story, may not be the best way to unite a country that is in need of unification. But this is politics, and it’s going to be nasty – especially when the White House is the prize. Buckle up, it’s 2020, an election year, and a few more weeks to go – anything can happen. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Trump #Biden #Debt #Recession #Depression #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #USA
The first and only Vice Presidential debate took place tonight between VP Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris. Both sides did what they had to do in our opinion. Pence had to defend the Trump Administration’s record as best he could and attempt to do so with a more serious and civil tone – he succeeded. Harris on the other hand had to simply keep the pace, as the Biden/Harris ticket is well ahead in the polls – even in key swing states and among key demographics – she succeeded. The main event is always the Presidential race and thus the Presidential candidates, and this race is no different. There are only a few short weeks to go until 3 November, and despite that, it must be stressed that anything can happen between now and then. It still is anybody’s race, but given the recent events surrounding the debates thus far, among other concerns, The Kapital News is now forecasting a likely victory for the Biden/Harris ticket. Again, this could change, but if the course remains steady then it will be an extreme uphill battle for the Trump/Pence ticket to win re-election.
In other news, the President reversed course with respect to stopping the negotiations surrounding another round of spending and is once again claiming that he wants to sign a deal. This is borderline insanity and shows the immense power of the words and actions of the President. Yesterday following his tweet to stop the talks, the markets sold off massively. Today, due to the reversal – stocks rallied nearly 2 percent. The President knows of his power and what he’s doing – this is market manipulation and needs to be investigated. These actions have been taking place in the face of the American people since 2017 – it needs to end. The President is also increasing the amount he’d like to give to the airline industry from $20 billion to $25 billion. The previous amount worked out to $625,000 per job “saved.” Now, with the increase, it’ll amount to $781,250 per job “saved.” This is beyond ridiculous. These are publicly traded companies – let them issue shares, go to the corporate debt markets, seek loans from banks, sale their assets, etc. The last place they should be coming for assistance is to the American taxpayer. This should tell you all you need to know as to who our elected officials are really working for. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Bailouts #Jobs #Inflation #RNC #DNC #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Liberty #Revolution #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #USA
The President has left Walter Reed Medical Center and has returned to the White House, despite his physician claiming that the President is still, “not out of the woods.” The Kapital News believes that this is a mistake and that the President should spend another day or two at least, in the hospital. He has the ability to work from this location if he so desires and he’s surrounded by the necessary personnel and equipment, should his condition deteriorate. There is still much to know as to the true state of the President’s health, as the White House and the President’s physician refuse to answer even the most basic of questions. This is a scenario where the American people have the right to know the true status of the President’s health. However, this is consistent and fitting with a White House that delays, dithers, and distorts the truth constantly. It is also an unfortunate event that several other members of the White House have tested positive for COVID-19. This is very much the Trump show – as he used today’s travel from the hospital to the White House as a photo opportunity. We hope the President recovers, but this type of theater is simply not needed.
This evening, former VP Joe Biden, was at a townhall event in Miami, Florida – a battleground state in the upcoming election. This was nothing special from Biden, nor were the questions from the audience. Missing constantly are the structural issues that are tearing this country apart, and everybody seems to simply ask the same questions over and over that have already been answered (for the most part). Still nowhere to be seen or heard are the issues related to the debt and deficits, the actions undertaken by the Congress, White House, and Federal Reserve to bailout one industry after the next – and more spending is on its way. No discussion about the market manipulation amongst the banks and the massive fines that they are paying – yet no one is held accountable. These and so many more questions like these have and will continue to be missing from the conversation – so do not be surprised that nothing changes for the better when you continually decided to vote for the same two-party system time and time again, and await a different result. This is the definition of insanity – and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #Jobs #Protests #Trump #Biden #Debates #RNC #DNC #Recession
It’s a race to 270 electoral college votes and the heat is on. After last night’s national disgrace of a debate, we think it’s safe to assume that the election at this juncture is leaning towards the Biden/Harris ticket. Upon reviewing the electoral college map, it’s already an uphill battle for the President to win re-election. When he won in 2016 he pulled an inside-straight, and even in doing so, it was by razor thin margins accounting for some 70-80,000 votes across a few states. What is interesting, however, is that there is a real possibility of a 269-269 outcome. And in the year of 2020, all things are possible. There are of course other maps that would have razor thin margins of victory as well. However, the point we want to make with these closer contests is the very real likelihood that the Presidency will be contested in the courts. Such a legal battle could take weeks and even months to sort itself out. Recall in 2000 the contested votes in the state of Florida. This time around, should it be a close election that is contested, it will involve several states. Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, there is going to be some major steam and pressure released throughout the country – and let us all remember that we are all Americans. Pray for peace. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Elections #Trump #Biden #USA #Economy #Liberty #Revolution
Tomorrow will be the first Presidential debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden – taking place in Cleveland, Ohio and hosted by Fox News anchor, Chris Wallace. During today’s podcast we discuss the potential outcomes and various scenarios of tomorrow evening’s event. However, what we stress the most during our conversation today are the structural issues facing the country, and if any of these topics will be addressed. We imagine that a couple will be noted, but we’re not holding our breath that brilliant policies will be mentioned either. In fact, we believe that some of the biggest issues will not even me mentioned – such as the Federal Reserve and their policies; the bankruptcies and insolvencies that are waiting in the wings; the national debt – but more specifically, the question of, “do debts and deficits matter, and if yes, why, and if not, why not?” Are the candidates concerned about inflation, stagflation, or hyperinflation? Are they concerned with a stock market at record levels, with respect to valuations? Are they concerned with the solvency of the US Treasury? Or what about the millions of evictions that are likely coming down the pike once the moratoriums are lifted? These are some basic questions and concepts that need to be addressed and taken seriously, but something tells us that they’re barely going to receive a mention and even if they are – the candidates will not likely address them head-on. This is a failure of leadership – but with all this said, The Kapital News hopes to be proven wrong – that these questions will be asked and that they will be thoughtfully and thoroughly answered. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #RNC #DNC #Trump #Biden #Election #USA #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
It’s no surprise to us here at The Kapital News, as the White House, Republicans, and Democrats seem to be willing to once again get together to discuss another round of spending. On one side we have about $2.4 trillion from the Democrats, and from the White House, it appears they’re willing to go as high as $1.5 trillion. Of course, it can be reasonably deduced that what the White House is willing to do – so too the Republicans. The Kapital News expects the number to come in at around $1.9 trillion. A compromise if you will, where the Dems can claim close to $2 trillion and the President and Republicans can live with it as long as the price tag begins with “1.” Despite what figure is agreed upon and when, we still have to face the music that we do not have the money! But that’s seemingly okay, because we’re constantly told that debts and deficits do not matter. We’ve also been told by just about every member of the Federal Reserve that Congress has to do more. Why? Are we not constantly being told that we are in the midst of a “super V” recovery – then why more spending? Collectively, through monetary and fiscal measures, several trillion dollars (that we do not have), were thrown into the system (courtesy of the banana republic printing press) – and this is as far as it has taken us. We still have millions of evictions waiting in the wings. We still have a countless number of bankruptcies and insolvencies on the horizon. With these, an untold number of layoffs and permanent job losers will likely ensue. We still have moratoriums on student debt payments – these debts still need to be repaid. And lastly, but not the last of it, are the commercial and residential real estate markets that will likely experience declines not seen since the GFC or worse. But, hey, it’s all free – right?
We also discuss the typical data releases reserved for our Thursday podcast. Initial jobless claims for the prior week came in higher than market expectations at 870,000. The prior week was also revised higher by 6,000 to 866,000 claims. However, in aggregate, all persons claiming some form of unemployment benefit(s), decreased by nearly 3 million, to now sit around 26 million. This is still an extremely high number. Yet, this is somewhat of a head scratcher as over the last two weeks, we have witnessed an increase of nearly 3 million, taking the total to around 29 million. And just like that, in one week, 3 million are off the rolls? Perhaps people have found jobs, but this would not be in agreement with the various surveys of small businesses, households, and announcements and actions being undertaken in larger corporations. So what’s going on? Is this some sort of counting error? Are people no longer qualifying for benefits? These are questions to ponder, and unfortunately, several months into this monstrosity of an economic experiment, we still do not have a full picture of the jobs market. This lack of clarity will continue. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #Recession #Depression #Protests #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
The bulk of today’s discussion is a continuation of Monday’s podcast where we were focusing on the FinCEN investigation. This is a branch of the Treasury Department that is responsible for collecting, maintaining, and investigating suspicious activity reports, (SARs). These SARs are filed by banks when they identify unusual and suspicious transactions. The main goal is to detect money laundering and then stop it. However, as we gather through the BuzzFeed News investigation – this process is not so straight forward. In fact, many banks know and/or have a good idea that they are transacting with a money launderer, such as drug trafficker, but they continue to do business. The fees that are made from these transactions are apparently too good to give up; and furthermore, even if federal prosecutors should take action against the bank(s), the common punishment is a fine. This fine is of course paid by the shareholders and not the executives who are aware of these business dealings, nor the board directors who have a fiduciary duty to look out for the shareholders. Since this is the reality – crime does pay for these banks and other actors.
The BuzzFeed article that we continue to make our way through, highlights several of the world’s largest banks and the activities they have been involved with. These actions can range from working with Russian organized crime figures, to drug and human traffickers, to being the bank for convicted Ponzi scheme felon, Bernie Madoff. The amount of money involved is nothing short of astonishing and along with it the banking fees that are derived and the trading desk profits that are made with these funds. So long as this kind of money can be made and the corresponding punishment(s) so limited, then it can be logically concluded that these actions will continue, because crime, unfortunately, for these figures, does pay. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Banks #Fraud #Bailouts #USA #Gold #Inflation #Debt #Liberty #Revolution
The Congressional Budget Office, CBO, is out with their projections for debt, deficit, spending, and revenue levels out to 2050 – and it ain’t a pretty picture. Even accounting for the effects for COVID-19 and the government response thereof, deficits are expected to increase to 5 percent of GDP by 2030 and to a whopping 13 percent by 2050. For context, the average deficit as a percentage of GDP has been 3 percent for the past 50 years. Following suit, the federal debt will increase to a record size of the economy when it hits 107 percent of GDP in 2023. This trend, unfortunately continues and hits a striking 195 percent of GDP by 2050. The CBO even remarks about the fragility of the economy and it will likely not be able to tolerate higher interest rates. Also noting that inflation may be on its way depending on how the government decides to “finance” the debt. And lastly, warning of a potential fiscal crisis and/or decline in the value of Treasury securities. All of the above points have been discussed at length by The Kapital News – most of which on a near daily basis. This is nothing short of a government that is out of control. And sadly, neither the President, nor VP Biden, are likely to comment on this fiscal disaster, nor address the structural issues that have led us to this destination, nor have a realistic plan to address it. The lack of honesty and leadership is a tragedy in and of itself.
In other news, the US dollar index is rallying, putting downward pressure on precious metals, some commodities, and likely stock prices as well. Is this a rush to “safety” in the US dollar? Or is liquidity starting to dry up once again, thus causing an increase in demand for US dollars in response to all of the US dollar denominated debt(s) that are outstanding and due? This is something worth monitoring. Interesting to note, however, is that the 10-year Treasury has barely moved and has been range-bound for quite awhile. Perhaps this fact throws water on the safe-haven play, as one would also expect to see falling yields in such a scenario. Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, gave testimony on the state of the economy and the various efforts undertaken to revive the economy. Long-story short, they are requesting more spending and cannot figure out how to get money in the hands of small businesses, but have no problem giving it to major banks and large corporations – American or otherwise. And lastly, with rising COVID-19 cases in Europe, UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, made a public announcement urging Brits to social distancing and utilize other measures to get the numbers down, and should numbers continue to increase, then lock-down 2.0 is the likely outcome. Other countries may follow suit. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Debt #Deficits #Recession #Depression #Inflation #USA #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #Gold #Silver
