It’s a race to 270 electoral college votes and the heat is on. After last night’s national disgrace of a debate, we think it’s safe to assume that the election at this juncture is leaning towards the Biden/Harris ticket. Upon reviewing the electoral college map, it’s already an uphill battle for the President to win re-election. When he won in 2016 he pulled an inside-straight, and even in doing so, it was by razor thin margins accounting for some 70-80,000 votes across a few states. What is interesting, however, is that there is a real possibility of a 269-269 outcome. And in the year of 2020, all things are possible. There are of course other maps that would have razor thin margins of victory as well. However, the point we want to make with these closer contests is the very real likelihood that the Presidency will be contested in the courts. Such a legal battle could take weeks and even months to sort itself out. Recall in 2000 the contested votes in the state of Florida. This time around, should it be a close election that is contested, it will involve several states. Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, there is going to be some major steam and pressure released throughout the country – and let us all remember that we are all Americans. Pray for peace. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Elections #Trump #Biden #USA #Economy #Liberty #Revolution
Where to even begin? The Kapital News has been saying for months that this debate was likely going to be a national disgrace and that’s exactly what is was. We noted yesterday that we were very much hoping to be pleasantly surprised whereby the candidates would engage in a civil debate discussing the many issues that are facing the country. Well, this of course did not happen. The level of rage, disrespect, and unprofessional behavior by the President was something for the history books. The first 15-20 minutes was nothing more than a shouting match with both candidates and the moderator, Fox News anchor, Chris Wallace, talking over each other. Even Wallace admitted that he was yelling and asked the President if he would like to swap seats. Vice President Biden’s behavior wasn’t much better – but what do you expect when you have someone interrupting you and calling out your son for being a “coke” head? There were winners of this debate – Russia, China, Iran, and many other adversaries of the United States. There were losers also – the American people, civility, and the American political process. Do you see why The Kapital News is so against this two-party system? If it wasn’t evident enough prior to this national tragedy, then it should be readily apparent now.
What about the very realistic scenario where many students were given the assignment of watching this debate so that they, along with their classmates and teacher(s), can have a civil discussion in class? You know – to become engaged in the political process and to be informed citizens so as to add to the debate. What do you think these students are now thinking and how they’re feeling about the country and the state of our politics? How do the parents respond to this type of “performance,” and explain this debate to their kids? In the next debate, assuming that there is one, it will be a townhall event. Can you imagine the very real scenario of a parent in the audience outlining the above situation and then asking President Trump and VP Biden to apologize for their rhetoric and actions during the first debate? That could prove to be a very powerful moment in this election should that come to pass, but we shall see. An apology is deserved nonetheless.
On some of the questions asked this evening, President Trump refused to condemn white supremacists and in regards to a certain group, he said for them to “stand back, and stand by.” Does this mean that this group will be given some sort of “green-light” to conduct riots or act violently if Trump loses the election? The President was also unable to say that he would accept the election results even after being verified by an independent party. Further, to add to this, the President has even gone so far in recent press conferences to say that he will not commit to a peaceful transition of power – a linchpin of the American Republic. On Biden’s side, when asked about the possibility of “stacking” the US Supreme Court, should he and the Dems win in the election, he shied away from answering the question outright. His running-mate, Senator Kamala Harris, also dodged answering this question in recent press interviews. This should be an easy answer of, “no,” but apparently it must be circulating through their minds as a viable option. Many more examples, but you get the point.
This country needs a revolution and we pray that it’s peaceful. One simple act to get this started is to leave the two-party system and register as a Libertarian, Independent, even unaffiliated – so long as you are no longer a Republican or Democrat. They have left you a long time ago, and they do not deserve your respect or your vote – they have not earned them. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Trump #Biden #RNC #GOP #DNC #Disgrace #Elections #Liberty #USA #Politics #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Revolution
Tomorrow will be the first Presidential debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden – taking place in Cleveland, Ohio and hosted by Fox News anchor, Chris Wallace. During today’s podcast we discuss the potential outcomes and various scenarios of tomorrow evening’s event. However, what we stress the most during our conversation today are the structural issues facing the country, and if any of these topics will be addressed. We imagine that a couple will be noted, but we’re not holding our breath that brilliant policies will be mentioned either. In fact, we believe that some of the biggest issues will not even me mentioned – such as the Federal Reserve and their policies; the bankruptcies and insolvencies that are waiting in the wings; the national debt – but more specifically, the question of, “do debts and deficits matter, and if yes, why, and if not, why not?” Are the candidates concerned about inflation, stagflation, or hyperinflation? Are they concerned with a stock market at record levels, with respect to valuations? Are they concerned with the solvency of the US Treasury? Or what about the millions of evictions that are likely coming down the pike once the moratoriums are lifted? These are some basic questions and concepts that need to be addressed and taken seriously, but something tells us that they’re barely going to receive a mention and even if they are – the candidates will not likely address them head-on. This is a failure of leadership – but with all this said, The Kapital News hopes to be proven wrong – that these questions will be asked and that they will be thoughtfully and thoroughly answered. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #RNC #DNC #Trump #Biden #Election #USA #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
The Congressional Budget Office, CBO, is out with their projections for debt, deficit, spending, and revenue levels out to 2050 – and it ain’t a pretty picture. Even accounting for the effects for COVID-19 and the government response thereof, deficits are expected to increase to 5 percent of GDP by 2030 and to a whopping 13 percent by 2050. For context, the average deficit as a percentage of GDP has been 3 percent for the past 50 years. Following suit, the federal debt will increase to a record size of the economy when it hits 107 percent of GDP in 2023. This trend, unfortunately continues and hits a striking 195 percent of GDP by 2050. The CBO even remarks about the fragility of the economy and it will likely not be able to tolerate higher interest rates. Also noting that inflation may be on its way depending on how the government decides to “finance” the debt. And lastly, warning of a potential fiscal crisis and/or decline in the value of Treasury securities. All of the above points have been discussed at length by The Kapital News – most of which on a near daily basis. This is nothing short of a government that is out of control. And sadly, neither the President, nor VP Biden, are likely to comment on this fiscal disaster, nor address the structural issues that have led us to this destination, nor have a realistic plan to address it. The lack of honesty and leadership is a tragedy in and of itself.
In other news, the US dollar index is rallying, putting downward pressure on precious metals, some commodities, and likely stock prices as well. Is this a rush to “safety” in the US dollar? Or is liquidity starting to dry up once again, thus causing an increase in demand for US dollars in response to all of the US dollar denominated debt(s) that are outstanding and due? This is something worth monitoring. Interesting to note, however, is that the 10-year Treasury has barely moved and has been range-bound for quite awhile. Perhaps this fact throws water on the safe-haven play, as one would also expect to see falling yields in such a scenario. Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, gave testimony on the state of the economy and the various efforts undertaken to revive the economy. Long-story short, they are requesting more spending and cannot figure out how to get money in the hands of small businesses, but have no problem giving it to major banks and large corporations – American or otherwise. And lastly, with rising COVID-19 cases in Europe, UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, made a public announcement urging Brits to social distancing and utilize other measures to get the numbers down, and should numbers continue to increase, then lock-down 2.0 is the likely outcome. Other countries may follow suit. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Debt #Deficits #Recession #Depression #Inflation #USA #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #Gold #Silver
News this evening is the passing of Associate Supreme Court Justice, Ruth Bader Ginsburg. She was 87 years old and passed away in the presence of her family. Ginsburg was nominated by President Bill Clinton and served nearly thirty years on the bench of the Supreme Court. She was a tireless advocate for equal rights, especially among women – and her work alone in this area as a lawyer, would have made her an historic American figure even if she was not a Justice on the Supreme Court. May American history always remember her, and her dedication to equal rights, and may she rest in peace.
Other topics discussed today were those that were covered throughout this week. A recap of the town halls of President Trump and VP Joe Biden; further commentary on the 29.8 million Americans still receiving some form of unemployment assistance; and the likelihood of some type of additional spending/bailout coming down the pike. Enjoy your weekend! Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Unemployment #Recession #USA #SupremeCourt #Gold #Silver #Inflation #Depression #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
Ep. 447 - Town Hall Showdown, Trump v. Biden Pt II
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This evening, from Scranton, Pa., former VP Joe Biden was at the town hall event hosted by CNN, and moderated by Anderson Cooper. Earlier in the week we discussed President Trump’s town hall, also in Pennsylvania. This state selection is not a coincidence as Pennsylvania is very much a battleground in the campaign. Recall that President Trump won the state in 2016 by a slim margin – Pennsylvania is typically a Democratic party stronghold in Presidential elections. Just as the President did what he needed to do, the same holds true for Joe Biden. Neither man had any major gaffe that would derail their respective campaigns. Nonetheless, this provides the country with a little sneak preview of perhaps how the first debate will look when that takes place on 29 September. Some topics of discussion during the town hall pertained to taxes, healthcare, and energy – all of which we explore during today’s podcast.
Also covered today were the typical data points related to initial jobless claims, which came in at 860,000 for the week ending 12 September. The prior week’s number was also revised upward by 9,000 to 893,000. When looking at the report in aggregate we see that the total among persons claiming some form of unemployment benefit came in at 29.8 million. This is a week-over-week increase of some 98,000. This is for the week ending 29 August, as their is a lag for these figures. What is interesting to note in this report is that this grand total weekly change saw a notable increase to the “Regular State” category of some 215,000. Is this indicative of the next wave of layoffs? It can be reasoned that if this is the case, that a significant portion of these potential layoffs will be borne by white-collar jobs. We have been seeing a marked increase in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency UC programs over the last few weeks, which were creations of the Nobody CARES Act. Under these programs, assistance was extended and/or given to those who typically would not qualify for Regular State unemployment benefits – such as gig/contract workers and the self-employed. The fact that we are now seeing an increase in Regular State, may very well indicate that another round of layoffs is underway. Also indicative of this is the fact that we are still experiencing several hundred thousand layoffs per week, several months into this pandemic.
Per our analysis, this is not surprising to see, unfortunately. However, it is still difficult to gain a true sense of the jobs picture because of the distortionary effects of fiscal and monetary policy. So it will likely be at least a few more months until be we gain a better view on the jobs front – as moratoriums are lifted/expire, evictions pick up, and further bankruptcies and insolvencies come down the pike. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Unemployment #DNC #RNC #Bailouts #Debt #Recession #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Depression #USA #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
The world is and has been crying out for the truth and leadership for quite a while, and unfortunately, it is getting neither. Whether it’s central governments and central banks continuing with their fraudulent and asinine policies that seek to perpetually kick the proverbial can down the road, in attempts to sustain the unsustainable, to the massive amount of political corruption and mismanagement, to various social issues that seemingly never go away, one thing is certain – there is an absence of leadership. Global protests were here well before COVID-19 and they will be with us for the foreseeable future and they will gain momentum and intensify. A political sea change is here and it needs to be, because this global system is collapsing under its own weight. The question then becomes, what policies do we, as a nation, and even as the human race, adopt? Because if it’s more of the same – then we get more of the same. But if we restore our founding principles and free-market capitalism, then our future can outshine all of this darkness that we are experiencing.
Today was also the conclusion of the FOMC meeting whereby the Fed, as expected, kept rates unchanged at the zero bound (0.00 – 0.25bps). It was a terrible performance by Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, during the press conference. Despite facing relatively weak and predictable questions, the fact that what the Fed has and continues to do, makes it very difficult for even the Fed Chairman to defend. In addition, he cannot simply gloss over the devastating economic reality with half the country broke and in debt. Furthermore, the corporate debt load is simply staggering, thus creating one zombie company after the next, which all but guarantees slow and anemic growth ahead. Then you have to take into consideration the massive amount of evictions, insolvencies, bankruptcies, and layoffs that are just around the corner. Take all of this together and not many would have had a solid press conference performance – unless of course one was inclined to tell the truth and to be a leader. But since we do not hear the truth and thus have no leadership in these positions of power, then we will continue to get the same devastating and destructive results. #Economy #Jobs #Leadership #Inflation #Recession #Depression #USA #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Bailouts #Debt #Gold
Since we’re only a couple of months away from election day, we wanted to take the time to discuss some of the many issues that are still circulating and waiting in the wings. Unfortunately, many of these structural issues are not likely even going to be discussed during the campaign, but the problems associated will continue to be experienced by millions of Americans. Some of these issues consist of, evictions and moratoriums, bankruptcies and insolvencies, issues in commercial and residential real estate, jobs and unemployment, federal government spending and Federal Reserve actions, protests and riots, COVID-19 and vaccine(s), national debt and deficits, amongst others. This is a lot to cover and what the campaigns are likely going to continue to do, is blame the other side and attempt to scare people by “creating” a window into the world that will exist if the other side is in the White House. This shows you their respective lack of focus and their contempt for you because they do not even want to discuss the structural issues that are causing the many other smaller concerns that they want you to focus on. This is pure propaganda, politics, and divide and conquer at play. Wise up and wake up to the real issues. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Election #USA #Inflation #Gold #Recession #Depression #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed
Just yesterday we asked if the risk-reward breakdown was signaling danger ahead? Well as timing would have it, there was a large market pullback today across the major indexes. The question moving forward of course is, is there more downside to come, or is this just a much needed “breather” in a very overbought and overextended rally, whereby the next leg up is to be realized? Well, as we know, anything is possible when you have policymakers around the world doing their best to keep asset prices elevated. Unfortunately, these governments and central banks are doing so at any cost. And these costs are going to be truly devastating to the masses. These costs will show up, and many of them are already here, with some of the most destructive being that of inflation and hyperinflation.
Further today during our discussion was the initial jobless claims number which came in at 881,000 for the week ending 29 August. For the entire month of August, initial claims totaled over 5.1 million Americans. When we take into consideration all of the unemployment benefits being paid out, over 29.2 million Americans are receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 15 August, so there is a lag involved, but what is most startling, is that the week-over-week change was an additional 2.195 million Americans claiming benefits. This is clearly in the wrong direction, but consistent with our analysis of the many distortionary effects that exist within the system due to various policy programs from the government and the Federal Reserve. A fuller and more accurate picture of the jobs market will be made known once the moratoriums and other policies are lifted and/or exhausted. Tomorrow, the August jobs report will be released. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #Gold #Bailouts #Unemployment #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Silver #Recession #Depression #USA #Protests #Liberty #Revolution
Markets making new highs and yet the volatility index, the VIX, is also moving higher. What might this suggest for markets? Despite the massive rally across the major indexes, the VIX has held relatively firm. But with the VIX moving up with the S&P 500 of which it tracks, might this be a warning of more volatility ahead? With valuations breaking one record after the next on a daily basis, the risk-reward picture is definitely not pointing in favor of adding more risk to one’s portfolio. For example, just yesterday, Apple, Inc.’s market cap was larger than the entirety of the Russell 2000 index! However, if enough people believe that printing presses are panaceas, then this mania may very well last for longer than many think possible. Time will tell.
On another risk-reward note, the Trump Administration is floating a story that a COVID-19 vaccine may very well be available by the end of October to 1 November. Let’s see, what also is around that time-frame? Oh, yes, that’s right, the presidential election. So a process that usually takes years is now going to approve a vaccine within months? Talk about “Operation Warp Speed.” And of course, The Kapital News imagines that there will be massive insider trading on this information as the Administration is going to know in advance what companies are going to be approved. And on top of this, because this is a rush-job, the same pharma companies that are going to print a mint on the back of this news, will also be immune from any potential lawsuit, should their vaccine(s) not prove safe and/or effective. How can they lose? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Gold #Jobs #Bailouts #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #Depression #Recession #USA
