We could simply copy and paste the headlines that pertain to the US/China trade deal or lack thereof. This is like living in the Twilight Zone with this constant and continual occurrence of yes there is a deal, to no, we have to increase tariffs, and rinse and repeat. Well it appears today that President Trump is ready to roll back 50% of the tariffs and cancel the upcoming tariffs that were scheduled for 15 December. What does the US get in return? We really have no idea. Possibly the Chinese will buy more ag products like soybeans and pork bellies. But that really just takes us back to where we were when this whole thing started. So what really has been accomplished? We also have early reporting that a Phase 2 deal will not commence until after the 2020 elections. So is this the end of trade headline optimism? Meaning, what are the markets going to look to so that they can “justify” climbing higher? Perhaps the Federal Reserve will come to the rescue and just flush the markets with liquidity like they’ve already been doing – just in a larger order. Time will tell, but if there really is a deal, early reporting is also stating that it will not be released for public review and President Xi will not be signing it. So there’s that.
UK elections look to keep PM Boris Johnson and his Conservative party in power and by a wide margin. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is expected to step down as the leader following the election results. What does this mean for Brexit? Will it finally happen? It appears by the voice and vote of the British people that Brexit must occur. After all, it’s only been 3 1/2 years and counting.
Here in the US, the House Judiciary Committee is expected to vote on impeachment tomorrow morning following a marathon day of amendment issues, debates, and committee procedural votes. The vote in the affirmative for impeachment is likely, thus setting the stage for a full House vote on impeachment for next week. This will then move the trial to the US Senate where Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, is already working closely with the White House on how to proceed. Does this make sense? A juror is working closely with the defendant. What could possibly go wrong? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Trade #Economy #Impeachment #EndTheFed #Recession #Politics #Congress #Republic #Truth #Justice #Peace
Is it politics, the economy, global currencies, that we’re discussing when we note a race to the bottom? Or is it perhaps all of the above? Yes! It is all of the above, unfortunately. The Fed decided to keep rates steady and expects to do so throughout 2020, but we’re not holding our breath. It’s an election year and any market pullback of significance, and to this Fed, 5% might be considered significant, causing the Fed to intervene and cut rates again. And don’t forget about non-QE, QE, the o/n repo market, and the term repo market. Today’s decision, caused the dollar to weaken against a basket of currencies. How will these other countries respond? Most likely with further monetary easing of their own. Thus a race to the bottom.
An impeachment vote in the affirmative is all, but guaranteed and this, despite your opinions of the President, is a sad nation in the history of our Republic. If impeached, the next step will be for a trial to convene in the US Senate with US Senators the jury and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presiding. The rules of the trial will be made known soon after impeachment. This all of course assumes that President Donald J Trump is impeached.
This weekend a decision must be rendered by the President as to whether or not there will be an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. Postpone, cancel, or implement? – that is the question. Regardless of the decision, expect market volatility in one direction or the other. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Recession #Economy #EndTheFed #Impeachment #Politics #Truth #Justice #Peace #Congress #Republic
We’re just going to list some of the economic and geopolitical stories that are coming to a head this week:
1. General Overall Market Performance
2. The Impeachment Inquiry and Articles of Impeachment are expected to be released or at least announced tomorrow
3. The IG report from the Department of Justice has been released and it is not the bombshell that has been promised by the President. Nevertheless, there was some wrongdoing by the FBI and DOJ and those individuals need to be held to account and policies remedied
4. UK general elections are scheduled for 12 December and the fate of Brexit is very much at stake – it’s only been 3 1/2 years
5. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC, meets for the last time of 2019 and they will be making a decision on interest rates this week. At this juncture, markets are expecting the Fed to keeps rates on hold, so as to keep some of their “powder” dry
6. Lastly, President Trump is nearing his 15 December deadline regarding tariffs on Chinese goods. Will he implement, postpone, or cancel? All eyes and ears will be anxiously awaiting that decision. Those in the “know” can potentially make a lot of money in a very short period of time for another dose of market manipulation. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #Impeachment #Truth #Justice #PEace #Congress #Politics #EndTheFed
Ep. 284 - Santa Claus Rally or Stocking Full of Coal?
/
RSS Feed
Share
Link
Embed
A couple down days in the market does not make a trend and when taken into context of a “mini” seven week “melt-up,” perhaps a little pullback is needed. Nevertheless, we are in the last month of 2019 and everyone is wondering if there will be a Santa Claus rally or perhaps another scenario like last year. It’s too early to tell, but we’ll know more in a few short weeks’ time. Be mindful that December is historically known for being a month of poor liquidity and right now these markets only seem to be running off of the fumes from the massive liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve. So how much longer can this bull market run?
On the US/China trade front, talks appear to be stalling if not collapsing as President Trump claims that he would be fine with the deal not being finalized until after the 2020 election. Yes. Seriously. He also claims that he does not pay attention to the stock market. Yes. Seriously. However, he stated that the DOW would hit 30,000. So there’s that. There’s also the potential for the President to respond to France enacting a digital tax, which would affect US goods. President Trump could potentially slap tariffs on $2.4B worth of French goods – primarily wine, champagne, cheeses, and luxury retail lines. The French Finance Minister has already responded that if such tariffs are implemented, the French will respond in kind. So there’s that.
The Federal Reserve meets for the last time next week and is expected to keep rates on hold. However, with the recent setback in trade talks, the possibility of tariffs on French products, the tariffs placed on Brazilian and Argentine steel and aluminum, and the recent market pullback, is Trump trying to force the hand of the Fed to cut rates for the 4th time this year? Regardless what the Fed decides, Trump will blame them for something.
On the political front, Senator Kamala Harris suspends her campaign for President – surprise, surprise. And the impeachment inquiry makes its way to the House Judiciary Committee tomorrow with the first round of testimony. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #EndTheFed #Trade #Politics #Impeach #2020 #Truth #Justice #Peace #Protests #USA #China #HongKong #Recession
Of course President Trump couldn’t stay away for too long when it comes to tariffs and so he has placed tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine steel and aluminum. Claiming on Twitter that both countries were engaged in a deliberate effort to devalue their currencies. Trump argues that this places US manufacturing firms at a disadvantage. What he leaves out is the fact that Argentina is on the brink of economic collapse and a massive debt default. This is why the Argentine peso has lost so much value. Unless the President is arguing the Argentines are conspiring to collapse their economy for the sole purpose of devaluing the peso? We think not.
In the same vein of economics – US ISM manufacturing PMI contracts for the 4th straight month with leading indicators such as new orders and employment continuing to show signs of a further slowdown. And on top of all of this, President Trump is once again attacking the Federal Reserve and “demanding” that they cut interest rates and devalue the US dollar. Do you want your cost of living to increase faster than it already is? Well if you do, then I guess you want a weaker US dollar as well. We do not.
Lastly, on the economic front, US non-financial corporate debt nears the $10 T mark, which is almost 50% of US GDP. This eclipses the corporate debt levels prior to the recessions of the early 90s, the dot-com bust, and the GFC of 08-09. So, what could possibly go wrong? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #EndTheFed #Politics #Trade #USA #China #Truth #Justice #Peace #Protests
A busy week ahead on multiple fronts and most likely these stories will persist throughout much of 2020. Whether it’s the global economic data that continues to show signs of slowing or stagnation or central banks that continue to pump markets with liquidity – one thing is certain, global debt continues to rise. When this debt bubble bursts, it will likely be one of the largest and worst global economic slowdowns in history.
On the global protest front, the Iraqi PM resigns; however, protesters are stating that this is not enough as they are demanding that the entire regime step down. These global protests as The Kapital News has stated repeatedly, are not transitory, but rather history in the making. People around the world are fed up with the corruption, abuse of power, fraud at the highest levels of their governments, and higher costs of living across the board. The people of the world are finally starting to stand up for themselves and for each other, and let us pray this is resolved peacefully and for the betterment of mankind.
On the domestic front, President Donald J. Trump and his legal team have denied the opportunity to go before the House Judiciary Committee to ask witnesses questions. Instead, the Administration continues to claim that this is all an unfair process and they want no part – at least not as of yet. All of these stories will continue and we must pay close attention. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Truth #Justice #Peace #Impeachment #Economy #Recession #EndTheFed #Politics #Protests #HongKong
When we analyze US and rest of the world corporate debt and benchmark this against the Wilshire 5000 total market full cap index, we see a near 1 to 1 relationship. Thus implying that stock market performance is strongly linked to debt growth. This is no surprise to us here at The Kapital News, but it’s always interesting to see this data represented graphically. (We will do a video presentation on this as well). When one understands that debt is growth from the future being brought to the present, one must then ask the question, where will the future growth come from? This is the question at the heart of this central bank and debt expansion experiment. The Kapital News expects the fallout to be detrimental for generation(s). This also gives rise to outlandish and unsustainable valuations in the stock market. Market cap to US GDP is currently around 148% – levels not seen since the height of the dot-com bubble. Again, how long can this be sustained on a growing mountain of debt and currency creation?
In other news, President Trump has a major decision to make by 2 December as this is the deadline for him to sign the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights Act into law. Will he do it and risk upsetting the Chinese and thus a Phase 1 trade deal? Or will he cave and not sign it because he’s more concerned with the stock market as opposed to standing up for American values and human rights? Also coming due is a decision centered around tariffs. Come 15 December, tariffs are expected to increase and be placed on additional Chinese goods. Decisions. Decisions. American values? Human rights? Or new highs in the stock market? What will the President decide? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Truth #Debt #Recession #EndTheFed #Stocks #Trade #Politics #USA #China #HongKong #Justice #Peace #Republic
A big day on Capitol Hill with the testimony of Ambassador Gordon Sondland. Perhaps the most damning day against President Donald J Trump as Amb Sondland makes the connection between the President and withholding a Ukrainian visit to the White House and foreign aid – in what Amd Sondland calls a quid pro quo. Both political parties were caught off guard as to what Amb Sondland was going to testify to. His opening statement was lengthy and detailed and highlighted the motivations of the President, which was inconsistent with what the President and the Republicans have been arguing. The Republicans were completely stunned and dumbfounded following the opening statement, which was evidenced by the poor questioning from both Ranking Member, Devin Nunes, and minority Counsel Castor. However, following the break and when individual members of the committee were able to ask questions, the Republicans were able to create a defense for the President. This is like splitting hairs in our opinion, but nevertheless, it was a defense. It was also made known that on 9 September, a phone call between President Trump and Amb Sondland, the President allegedly claims that he wants no quid pro quo and that all he wants is for President Zelensky to do what he’s supposed to do and fight corruption. The timing is highly suspect as 9 September is the same day that it is made known that there is a whistleblower complaint. The next day, 10 September, former National Security Advisor, John Bolton resigns. The next day, 11 September, the Ukrainian foreign aid is released. Is this all just a coincidence? We think not.
Furthermore, the Republican defense now seems to be, unless someone can step forward with video or taped audio evidence/confession of President Trump clearly ordering a bribe – then the President is innocent. This is such a weak argument on so many levels, we’re not even going to waste our time explaining it. In addition, Amb Sondland implicates a number of other officials, such as VP Mike Pence, Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry, Acting Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, and President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani. The Republicans have been complaining about a lack of firsthand witnesses – fair enough. Then they should be calling for the President to allow these individuals to testify and for various agencies and departments to release documents that can shed light on this whole issue. The Kapital News is not interested in the partisan atacks and arguments. We are interested in truth and justice. We do not care who is named and implicated. The sake and health of our Republic is at stake and the truth is needed now more than ever. The divisive partisanship has to cease or the collapse of our Republic will be near inevitable. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Truth #Justice #Peace #Impeachment #TradeWar #Politics #Recession #Economy #Protetsts #EndTheFed
Ep. 276 - Impeachment Hearings Day III + No Trade Deal?
/
RSS Feed
Share
Link
Embed
The third day of public impeachment testimony took place today and both sides of the aisle are claiming victory. This stalemate, however, could possibly be decided during tomorrow’s testimony of Ambassador Gordon Sondland. Amb. Sondland is going to be the first person to testify who can perhaps speak from a first-hand perspective as to what was motivating the President when it came to Ukrainian policy. Recall that Amb Sondland already amended his testimony from his closed-door deposition. This amendment was likely conducted because of the release of transcripts from other witnesses. The Ambassador is basically claiming that others’ testimony refreshed his memory – this or perhaps he doesn’t want to be charged with perjury and was taking advantage of the opportunity to amend? We also know that another State Department official, testified behind closed-doors that he overheard a phone conversation between the Ambassador and the President. Allegedly, the President was only concerned with the Ukrainians investigated the Bidens. Also, allegedly, there were other staffers who could have overheard this phone call. The Ambassador now finds himself in a very delicate situation. The veracity of his initial testimony is already in question due to his amendment. Now, he has to be concerned with making sure he tells the whole truth when it comes to this phone call and other conversations he may have had with the President. Otherwise he may face the real possibility of being charged with perjury; especially if other staffers can corroborate the testimony pertaining to the phone call. All eyes will be on Sondland.
In other news, both chambers of Congress unanimously passed the Hong Kong Human Rights Act. This has been criticized by the Chinese and they claim they will retaliate if this bill becomes law. It will now head to the Presidnet’s desk. Should the Presidnet veto this bill, given the unanimous consent from both chambers, they could potentially override the veto. This throws a big wrench into trade talks – however, we’ve been highly skeptical of any real progress on the trade front. Furthermore, President Trump has been claiming that if there is not a trade deal soon that the tariffs will go up significantly. The markets have not priced in a no-deal. They have been strung along into believing that a trade deal was at-hand. Should there be a no-deal, the markets could correct quickly and significantly. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Impeachment #HongKong #Truth #Peace #Protests #EndTheFed #Justice #Economy #Politics
Round II of the impeachment inquiry hearings and former Ukrainian Ambassador, Marie Yovanovitch, was in the hot seat. Amb. Yovanovitch came off as credible and was praised and thanked for her 33 years of service by both Democrats and Republicans. Despite this, President Donald Trump could seemingly not contain himself and had to send a tweet during the testimony, attacking the character and “results” of the ambassador. Even Republicans condemned the tweet. And now, this tweet opens the door to potential charges of witness tampering and/or intimidation. Not only for this witness, but for potential witnesses to come because this has been how President Trump has been behaving toward these witnesses. This is beneath the Office of the Presidency. There are a lot of questions that remain outstanding because Amb. Yovanovitch could have simply been removed because the President wanted her gone. Evidently, that wasn’t good enough because as we know from the 25 July phone call memo, Trump and Zelensky discuss the ambassador and say she’s “trouble” and that, “she’s going to go through some things.” Now it gives the appearance that Trump wanted the ambassador removed because she wasn’t playing the game with getting the Ukrainians to investigate the Bidens. So the appearance of wrongdoing is in the air.
Also, and central to all of this is the President’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, and two of his associates. The associates by the way have been arrested by the FBI. These men wanted the ambassador removed and seemingly convinced Trump that she was bad news and had to go in order to get the Ukrainians to investigate the Bidens. Again, this does not look good.
In addition, there was another witness, David Holmes, a State Department official, who testified this evening behind closed doors. This is the man who claims to have overheard President Trump speaking with Ambassador Sondland in a Ukrainian restaurant on the progress being made to investigate the Bidens. This phone call took place on 26 July – one day after the phone call with Zelensky. This testimony can serve to further show the state of mind and the area of focus for the President and his inner circle.
Lastly, Roger Stone, long-time friend and associate of Donald Trump’s was found guilty of all charges today in a Washington, DC courthouse. He was convicted of lying to several authorities and witness intimidation and the like. He is to be sentenced in February. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Impeachment #Truth #Justice #Peace #Economy #Politics #EndTheFed #Protests
