Since it is the anniversary of the Pearl Harbor attacks, 7 December, 1941, we thought it prudent to title today’s podcast as such. Of course, this is a play on words to those spoken by President FDR, following this attack. We think it’s more than fair and reasonable to make such a statement.
During today’s show we discuss a number of items of which we were able to recall as happening throughout this year. Surely, topics were missed, but we ask the audience to share any items not mentioned. The events throughout this year are nothing short of Biblical – various natural disasters (fires, hurricanes, locusts, etc); trade wars, impeachment hearings and trial, negative oil prices, economic and/or country and government collapse, Presidential primaries and elections, Brexit, wars and conflicts, Covid-19, significant inflation and debt expansion, massive job loss and business closures, protests and riots, banking and financial market fraud, and what lies ahead for much of the world, may very well be a combination of civil wars, revolutions, and world war. We pray that we are wrong due to the destruction and devastation that will follow. However, this is an honest assessment given the moral, political, social, and economic decay and decline that has been experienced for generations and is picking up momentum. So while 2020 is a year for the record books – prepare yourselves, as 2021 and beyond are likely to be even worse. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #War #Recession #Debt #Bailouts #Inflation #Depression #Gold #Silver #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Liberty #Revolution
More vaccine headlines because, well, it’s a day that ends in “d-a-y.” More “stimulus” on it’s way because, well, that’s what an out of control Congress and White House do – they beg, borrow, and spend money we do not have. Former Chairs of the Fed, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen testified before Congress last week on how to weather the COVID-19 storm and suggested to do, “whatever it takes” – because, well, that’s what central bankers operating in banana republic do – they print money like it’s going out of style – because it is. And lastly, the weakest links in the global economic chain are beginning to completely collapse.
We highlight the devastating economic and social destruction of Lebanon. Wrought with years of political corruption, fraud, abuse, and nepotism, coupled with flawed economic policies have brought the Middle Eastern state to its knees. Unfortunately, the policies and actions that have caused this collapse are all too familiar to billions of people around the world – whether 3rd world or highly industrialized. This is what ultimately led to the global protests prior to the pandemic, and given the economic, health, and social fallout due to the pandemic, the protests will become even larger and likely violent. Any chain is only as strong as its weakest link and if recent history is any guide, do not be surprised if over the course of the next 1-2 years, we see the collapse of not only smaller countries, such as Lebanon, but of larger economies around the globe. A global economy built upon and maintained by debt cannot stand the test of time nor forever defy the laws of economic gravity. A day of reckoning is upon us and the Greatest Depression is now well underway. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Bailouts #BananaRepublic #USA #EndTheFed #Gold #Silver #Protests #Depression #Recession #Inflation #Peace
A modern day Bay of Pigs on our hands in Venezuela? Criss-crossing messages from the DoD and State Department with their “intelligence” assessments surrounding the genesis of COVID19. And Israel vowing to continue to bomb targets in Syria until Iran leaves. These are just a few of the items on the agenda during today’s podcast. After all, never let a good crisis go to waste.
In Venezuela, two former US special forces operators have been arrested by the Maduro regime during what they are referring to as a plot to overthrow the Venezuelan government. The US government denies any and all involvement with the matter. However, a private security firm in the US has taken responsibility and the company’s founder has claimed those arrested are “his men.” Venezuela has been a hot spot for US saber rattling over the last couple of years. Recall, just a few months ago during the President’s State of the Union Address, that Juan Guiado, was an honored guest of the President’s. Guiado is the opposition leader in Venezuela, who is also recognized by the US, UK, and several South American countries as the “real” President of Venezuela. Questions remain as to how this matter will be treated with respect to an American response to get these men back into the United States. Questions also remain as to how the Maduro regime will handle the situation. It’s these “little” skirmishes that can turn into something much larger – let us pray this does not happen.
A case of good cop-bad cop? When it comes to intelligence assessments and talking points around the genesis of COVID19, it would appear that the US government is working two different messages. On one hand, we have the broader intelligence community in addition to the Defense Department stating that the US does not know where the COVID19 pandemic actually started – meaning in a wet market in China, a lab, what have you. Yet according to General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the virus appears to not have been man-made. This is in stark contrast to the recent comments made by Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, where he insists that there is strong intelligence that the virus was made in a lab in China. Regardless of which may prove to be the case, it appears that the US government continues to plays its games of misinforming and dis-informing the American public. Reminiscent of so many other instances – such as the lead up to the invasion of Iraq.
We conclude the podcast with a discussion of Israel’s defense forces regarding their Syrian operations, African locusts updates, and the German Supreme Court’s ruling on actions undertaken by the European Central Bank (ECB), and what this may mean for the European Union. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #War #Peace #USA #Venezuela #Debt #EU #Recession #Gold #COVID19
Another day and another historic day in the markets. A sell-off the likes which has not been seen since Black Monday of October 1987. This of course was also on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s emergency meeting and subsequent 100bps rate cut, expansion of QE, lowering the rates for the discount window, and the basic removal of the reserve requirement. So despite all of this, the major indexes were all down 12-14%! Can anyone say that the Fed is out of ammo? This has been the biggest risk that we have been warning about here at The Kapital News since we’ve been online – once the markets no longer believe in the efficacy of monetary policy then what tools remain to boost the markets? And we’ve always cautioned that if and when this day came to pass, that this would be the end of the bull market and the start of something we may have never witnessed before. Well, behold, a massive 20-30% sell-off in only a few weeks’ time. And remember and be warned that we have still yet to see credit/bond downgrades and/or bankruptcies – both of which are virtually inevitable given the COVID19 situation, the oil price war, and the massive amounts of debt in existence.
In addition, we now have the airline industry lining up at the government trough requesting a bailout of at least $50 billion. Are you kidding us here?! Tax cuts, deregulation, billions of people now taking to air travel, etc, etc… and they need bailed out? Where did all of their cashflows go? Oh, that’s right, it went to share buybacks so they could financially and artificially engineer their stock prices higher – which happened – which then led to handsome compensation packages for the executives. Now we, the US taxpayer have to bail them out?! Today during a COVID19 press conference, the President commented on how the virus is not the fault of the airlines and thus the government needs to assist the industry. While the President is correct that the airlines are not responsible for the virus, they are responsible for their cashflow management! So again, why does the taxpayer need to bail them out? Let them file bankruptcy, restructure, etc… Let them sell their assets for pennies on the dollar to someone who knows how to manage an airline. No more bailouts! And we’re just getting started. Boeing is lining up. As is the cruise line industry. What about the hotel, casino, restaurant, entertainment, energy sectors, and others? Bailouts for all?! This is beyond ridiculous and I hope the American people wake up to this fraud.
When and where will this market find its bottom? We have no idea. But if history, math, economics, financial analysis, and human behavior have anything to say, then we likely have another leg or two lower to go. And the subsequent economic recovery is also likely to take years to find its footing. Therefore, we hope during this massive transition that the correct and prudent policies are adopted and implemented. This of course would be the restoration of our Constitutional Republic and a return to free-market capitalism. We already have the blueprints. We just need the will power, work ethic, and leadership to build our economy on a solid foundation. We can do this and we must do this, if our future is to be brighter than our past. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #Invest #Bonds #Gold #Debt #Bailouts #Stocks #Politics #USA #Oil #EndTheFed
In a second emergency meeting in as little as two weeks, the Federal Reserve has met, and decided to cut interest rates by 100bps. This now takes the Federal Funds Rate down to a range of 0.0 – 0.25%. The last time rates were this low was during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. Recall, it was just a couple of weeks ago that the Fed cut rates by 50bps during that emergency meeting. So in very short order, the Fed has cut rates by 150bps! The next leg down, by definition would take us into negative territory on a nominal basis. On a real basis, the US has been in negative territory for quite awhile.
On the back of this information, we believed their were only two outcomes for how markets would respond. First, this decision could be seen as a panic move because the FOMC was scheduled to meet this week and announce their decision on Wednesday. However, they instead held this meeting this weekend and announced their decision this afternoon. So, the question becomes, why couldn’t the Fed wait another 48-72 hours to announce their decision – panic perhaps? Or option two would be, the crack addicts got their fix from their dealer a few days earlier, thus setting the stage for stocks to rally. Well, it appears the former. At least for now as the US futures market has hit limit down once again – the 5th time in the last six sessions, which means the circuit breakers have kicked in because stock futures have fallen by 5% and thus trading has been halted. Despite the massive rally on Friday – should the futures market hold, then half of Friday’s gains will be eliminated if not more. But not much surprises us anymore.
On the COVID19 front as well as economic front, country after country is making the decision to close their borders and/or make stricter guidelines surrounding travel in and out of their respective countries. This is in effect a global quarantine. The economic shock from both the supply side and demand side cannot be remedied by monetary or fiscal stimulus. These efforts to be undertaken by monetary and governmental authorities will serve only as mere attempts at looking like they are in charge – as if there is some kind of leadership. After a decade of deranged and fraudulent monetary policies, coupled with asinine fiscal measures, out of control corporate debt, and over levered consumers, the debt and credit chickens are coming home to roost. What COVID19 did was that is served as the pin that pricked the out of control global debt bubble. On top of this, don’t forget about the oil price war and all of the other economic data that has been pointing to a global slowdown prior to both COVID19 and the oil price wars.
We are only witnessing the tip of the iceberg, which is why central authorities are panicking. We have yet to see any cascading effect with respect to bankruptcies, let alone any bankruptcy of a major corporation. This outcome is unfortunately likely because of the size and duration of this supply and demand shock, coupled with the massive amounts of debt. This is a double, triple, maybe even a quadruple whammy across various sectors the world over. This massive unraveling will not end well nor will it end quickly. People must understand the root cause of this if we are ever to put into place a solid foundation on which to build a lasting economy and society. Otherwise, we’ll continue with the same old antics, on the same old foundation of sand. We can and must do better. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #COVID19 #EndTheFed #Truth #Justice #Peace #Politics #USA #Coronavirus
Again, The Kapital News is ahead of the curve when only a couple of weeks ago, we issued a warning around Boeing. The podcast, titled, “GE/GM: Trouble at the Plant?,” also covered a discussion of Boeing. At the time, the concern in question pertained to airline pilots with Southwest Airlines filing suit against Boeing for lost wages. The 737 model is the only model employed by Southwest Airlines and the model that has been grounded globally for months is the Boeing 737 MAX 8 airline. The reason for the plane’s grounding is directly in relation to the two flights that crashed last year within six months of each other – killing all on board. What has been described as a flaw in the computer software on the MAX, may now be turning into something a little more nefarious.
It is now understood in part, that the pilots of these two crashed airlines experienced difficulties with the new computer software and were either unable to override the software or were too late in doing so. What is now being reported, is that Boeing personnel from a few years ago were discussing concerns centered around the software and sensor system on the MAX.
The MAX came into existence following a move by Boeing’s main competitor, Airbus, to increase the size of the engine on the Airbus model A320 – a similar plane to Boeing’s 737. The larger engine was supposed to translate into better fuel-efficiency, thus saving airlines millions of dollars. Not to be outdone, Boeing also made the decision to incorporate larger engines on the 737 and thus the 737 MAX 8 was born. A key difference between the A320 and the 737 is that the elevation clearance from the ground to wing on the A320 is greater than that of the 737. Therefore, the larger engine was easier to install on the A320 as opposed to the 737. This led Boeing to have to move the engine forward, causing part of the engine to actually sit higher than the wing of the 737. This change made it possible for the pitch or the trajectory of the nose of the MAX to steepen to such a degree that the plane could enter a stall and potentially crash. This is what happened on both of the downed airplanes. This change in trajectory is most likely to occur during take-off, which is what transpired on the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airline flights – crashing shortly after take-off. In order to account for this steepening, Boeing updated their software in conjunction with sensors, to detect such a dangerous steepening and then correct the aircraft to a safer position. This unfortunately did not occur during these flights and the pilots were unaware as to how to correct for this error.
What now appears to be the case, is that Boeing may have been driven by revenue, profits, and delivering an aircraft in a “timely” fashion to compete with Airbus. We hope that profits and speed were not prioritized at the expense of safety. If this happens to be the case – the damage this will do to Boeing and the greater economy could prove to be immeasurable. Boeing is the largest US exporter and the industries that they depend and likewise the industries that depend on Boeing on will be heavily hit. These include, steel, aluminum, carbon-composite materials, computers, electronics, glass, rubber, paint, and several others. This could be an industrial/manufacturing contagion comparable to the collapse of Lehman Brothers that truly kick-started the collapse of the 2008-2009 financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession.
This issue is being investigated by the FAA, the Department of Transportation, Congress, the DOJ, the FBI, and other global regulators. There will be much more to come. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Boeing #Recession #Justice #Truth #Peace #USA #Airbus #EU #Europe #Airlines #Congress #DOJ #Economy #Politics
A handful of breaking news stories crossed the wires today, but the one that caught a good deal of attention pertained to the alleged cease-fire between Turkey and Syria. This was a deal that was brokered by VP Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with their counterparts in Turkey. Shortly after the US claims that a 120 hour cease-fire has been agreed, Turkish officials come out and state that this is not a cease-fire, but rather a pause in the action. What we do know is that the US is supposed to move the Kurdish forces further south into Syria and further away from the Turkish border – exactly what Turkey wants. In essence, this is a quasi-deal to surrender the position of the Kurds – an American ally. The Kapital News is for peace and prosperity and wants to see an end to the endless wars. However, this cannot be done by shooting from the hip. This needs to be done in a prudent and well thought out manner in order to prevent the kind of scenario in which we find ourselves. Following the “cease-fire” announcement, President Donald Trump made claims that he was the only one who could get this done and that this cease-fire will prevent millions of lives from being lost. This is a ridiculous notion on a few fronts, but primarily because this was not a problem until President Trump made his quick decision to remove US forces from Syria. This then led to the immediate advance of the Turkish military into Syria. This is akin to breaking something and then claiming how great you are when you fix it or attempt to fix it. In addition to this, within the next five days, President Erdogan of Turkey will be visiting with President Putin in Russia – just a coincidence we imagine. Other stories discussed pertain to a “miscommunication” from Mick Mulvaney, acting Chief of Staff to the President, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget, regarding the “quid pro quo” on the President’s phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart. We briefly discuss the Brexit deal, but we’re not holding our breath that this deal will be passed by Parliament in the coming days. Also, an article in Vanity Fair calls into question some irregular trading activity that may have proven quite profitable surrounding trades in the US futures markets that may have paid-off big by timing correctly President Trump’s tweets surrounding the US/China trade talks. Finally, someone in the mainstream in calling this into question. This is an abuse of power and in the very least, it needs to be investigated by the proper authorities. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Truth #Justice #Peace #War #USA #Syria #Turkey #Russia #Politics #Economy #Recession #Impeachment +
Ep. 125A - The Fed: Out of Ammo, but Firing Anyway
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Chairman Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve made remarks this afternoon informing us of what we here at The Kapital News already knew. And that is the Fed is expanding their balance sheet, again. However, as we have been noting for months, while this is QE, the Fed would not call this QE, and guess what? – they’re not calling it QE. The reason why they’re not admitting that this is another round of QE is the fact that this monetary experiment was supposed to be temporary. Well it’s been 10 years and it looks like they’re going to begin another round. Should the Fed actually call this QE4, the markets might have a flash of genius, scratch their heads, and say, wait a minute – if everything is so great, then why is the Fed utilizing a monetary tool reserved for emergencies? Good question. The Fed, along with other central banks have boxed themselves in and are now trapped. Exactly as we noted back in July with our Kapital Economics presentation. With a “complete” US/China trade deal seeming less and less likely, the only hope for the markets is that the Fed can pull a rabbit out of its hat. However, this trick has been seen before. The magician has been doing the same trick for 10 years and the audience is on to how the trick is performed and wants something new. It’s unlikely that the Fed can deliver the goods with a new trick of substance. However, also remember that markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent. This is a flawed and fraudulent monetary experiment that has reached its limits, and with fundamental economic conditions deteriorating both domestically and abroad – look out below. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #EndTheFed #Recession #Economy #Invest #Money #Debt #Politics #Truth #Peace
Awash with Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), figures coming out over the last couple of days continues to highlight what we have been describing for months – a global economic slowdown. Much of the focus is on Germany, the US, and Japan, but also to the broader Eurozone area, Australia, and other periphery nations. All-in-all the net position is in the negative, either in contraction, a reading below 50, or a continuation of slower expansion, readings above 50. Perhaps the biggest declines were experienced in Germany, which is getting hit from all sides. Whether it’s the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China, the uncertainties around Brexit, the slowdown in China, the weakness of Europe’s financial system, or other ripple effects the world over, one thing is certain – it’s not good for Germany and it’s likely they are in or are nearing a recession. This will not bode well for the rest of Europe or the world, especially given the size of the German economy. Furthermore, there have been more aggressive calls by central bankers “suggesting” that governments also step up to the plate to “stimulate” their economies via fiscal policies, since monetary policy can only do so much. Well it’s going to be quite the move for the Germans to decide to take on more debt at the exact same time that their economy is slowing down. The Germans are quite fiscally prudent and not likely to turn on the debt spigot anytime soon. Further developments out of Europe over the weekend witnessed the failure of Thomas Cook, a UK hospitality and travel agency service, as they filed for bankruptcy. This company has been around since the 1850s and had to file for bankruptcy protection due to their outstanding debt load. Are they a canary in the coal mine? Their bankruptcy leaves thousands of people on holiday/vacation stranded, however, efforts are underway to ensure that proper arrangements are made. This also places up to 9,000 UK jobs in the crosshairs and will only add to the economic and political uncertainties that exist regarding Brexit. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Recession #Economy #Debt #Politics #EndTheFed #TradeWar #Peace #WakeUpAmerica
Yesterday was the US Constitution day and today is Fed day. And the Fed did not disappoint. The markets were expecting a rate cut of 25 basis points and that’s exactly what the Fed did. There has been some chatter about the overnight lending market and how the Fed has had to intervene and inject tens of billions of dollars to ensure that markets were properly funded. This is basically QE, but by a different mechanism. QE was injecting around $50 billion a month into the system – this recent action was at least $54 billion on an overnight basis! When asked during his press conference about this, Jay Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, stated that it was due to corporate taxes being due as well as US Treasuries maturing. He also noted, perhaps ironically, or ominously, that this is “contained.” Former Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, said that sub-prime was “contained,” and we all know what happened next. The Kapital News continues to believe that the Fed will continue with its easing cycle. This does not mean that every meeting will result in a rate cut, but this will be the direction in both subsequent action and communication. The Fed was not the only central bank to cut rates today. The lineup includes: Hong Kong, Jordan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and UAE to name a few. In addition, the BOJ held steady, but signaled that more easing is likely in October. Further, we have higher unemployment in Australia, which is likely to lead to lower rates down-under as well. The Reserve Bank of Australia has made it explicitly clear that a lot of their rate decision making process will be predicated on unemployment – and we also know from recent meeting minutes that rates will be lower for longer. So, what we have here is a race to the bottom. And a thinly-veiled acknowledgement that lower interest rates, zero interest rates, negative interest rates, and QE are not working. Especially not to the extent that they “worked” a decade ago when these were “new” and “experimental” and “temporary” policies. Now they appear to be etched in stone and signed in blood with no end in sight. This is diminishing marginal returns at its best and this is a flawed and fraudulent monetary policy at its worse. There is much more to come and this simply pushes people, corporations, governments, and even central bankers, further out onto the risk curve. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #EndTheFed #Recession #Economy #Invest #InterestRates #Politics #Stocks #Peace #WakeUpAmerica
