Tag: Brexit

Ep. 571 – Another 750,000 Jobs Bite The Dust

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 571 - Another 750,000 Jobs Bite The Dust
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Were we not just informed last Friday with the release of a “stellar” jobs report that the economy and namely the jobs market recovery was well underway? Well then how can we have another 744,000 Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week ending 3 April? Furthermore, you have to understand that this figure only represents regular state unemployment benefits. However, due to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns and restrictions, federal government programs were established to assist those who would not traditionally qualify for state benefits. So, taking into consideration such a program, known as Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or PUA, we see that nearly 152,000 Americans filed an initial claim for the week ending 3 April. This means in aggregate that nearly 900,000 Americans filed an initial claim last week! Talk about recovery, as this is now over one full year since such draconian measures have been implemented. Last week’s figure of 719,000 was revised upward to now stand at 728,000 for the week ending 27 March. In aggregate, across all unemployment programs, some 18.2 million Americans continue to file claims. This is little changed from the prior week, and gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 12.7 percent. This is more than double the official unemployment rate, which now rests at 6.0 percent.

In other news, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet sits at $7.708 trillion, which is a week-over-week increase of $20 billion and is just shy of hitting a new all-time high. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. They continue to purchase MBS despite the fact that housing prices are at all-time highs and continue to climb, even as lumber and other construction materials prices continue their ascent.

And lastly, major geopolitical risks are taking shape around the globe. Whether it is increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, Northern Ireland rioting against Brexit, how the US is involved in all of these areas, or leaders in Italy and Turkey doing some name-calling, one thing is certain, the globe is on very unstable ground. With so much taking place, it increases the likelihood of mistakes being made or it creates the perfect environment for a false-flag attack, which will then be used as justification for conflict or even war. And oh yes, the Middle East and Africa remain hot spots for conflict as well. And if enough people in poorer and middle-income nations does not constitute enough financial strife, add Canada to the mix. A new survey released indicates that 53 percent of Canadians are on the verge of insolvency as they are only $200 away from not being able to pay their monthly bills and debt obligations. This figure includes the 30 percent of Canadians who are already insolvent. And despite all of this or perhaps because of it, real estate prices in Canada continue to skyrocket, with many homes selling well above their asking price, site unseen! But remember, our fearless leaders inform us that there is NO inflation. What a joke. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #Geopolitics #Protests #Peace #USA #Liberty #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #China #Russia #Germany #Ukraine #Taiwan #Philippines #Italy #Turkey #Canada

Ep. 498 – 2020, The Year That Will Live In Infamy

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 498 - 2020, The Year That Will Live In Infamy
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Since it is the anniversary of the Pearl Harbor attacks, 7 December, 1941, we thought it prudent to title today’s podcast as such. Of course, this is a play on words to those spoken by President FDR, following this attack. We think it’s more than fair and reasonable to make such a statement.

During today’s show we discuss a number of items of which we were able to recall as happening throughout this year. Surely, topics were missed, but we ask the audience to share any items not mentioned. The events throughout this year are nothing short of Biblical – various natural disasters (fires, hurricanes, locusts, etc); trade wars, impeachment hearings and trial, negative oil prices, economic and/or country and government collapse, Presidential primaries and elections, Brexit, wars and conflicts, Covid-19, significant inflation and debt expansion, massive job loss and business closures, protests and riots, banking and financial market fraud, and what lies ahead for much of the world, may very well be a combination of civil wars, revolutions, and world war. We pray that we are wrong due to the destruction and devastation that will follow. However, this is an honest assessment given the moral, political, social, and economic decay and decline that has been experienced for generations and is picking up momentum. So while 2020 is a year for the record books – prepare yourselves, as 2021 and beyond are likely to be even worse. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #War #Recession #Debt #Bailouts #Inflation #Depression #Gold #Silver #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 293 – Market Risks: 20 for 2020

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 293 - Market Risks: 20 for 2020
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Reviewing a list of 20 market risks for 2020 was the focus of today’s discussion. The list of concerns was created by Deutsche Bank and much of the points are topics that The Kapital News has been discussing for quite awhile. There is much uncertainty that remains, from trade deals, to global protests, to Brexit, to Middle East tensions, to political elections, central bank policies, and much more. The year 2019 saw a big return when it came to US equity markets, (which made new all-time highs again today), this came on the back of massive amounts of liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, massive debt issuance by corporations and the US government, misleading trade deal headlines by President Trump and his Administration, and many others. In short, the markets were propped up by easy money and $1 trillion deficit spending. This is a far-far cry from the “greatest” economy ever in the history of the United States. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #EndTheFed #Debt #Politics #Peace #Truth #Justice

Ep. 292 – Weekly Wrap Up

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 292 - Weekly Wrap Up
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Just a follow up today of this week’s events from the UK elections to the impeachment process, to the Phase 1 US/China trade deal, and to some general market news. As a lot of these hot button issues come to some semblance of a conclusion, the markets will now have to start looking elsewhere to gain some positive momentum. Where exactly is it going to find such positivity? Perhaps talks of Phase 2 will commence immediately, please, NO! Or perhaps the mega liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve from now until early January will be enough to cause a Santa Claus rally? Only time will tell, but the headwinds still outweigh the tailwinds as far as The Kapital News is concerned. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Impeachment #Recession #EndTheFed #Trade #USA #China #Trump #Xi #HongKong #Truth #Justice #Peace #Congress #Republic

Ep. 291 – Phase 1: Yes or No?

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 291 - Phase 1: Yes or No?
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We could simply copy and paste the headlines that pertain to the US/China trade deal or lack thereof. This is like living in the Twilight Zone with this constant and continual occurrence of yes there is a deal, to no, we have to increase tariffs, and rinse and repeat. Well it appears today that President Trump is ready to roll back 50% of the tariffs and cancel the upcoming tariffs that were scheduled for 15 December. What does the US get in return? We really have no idea. Possibly the Chinese will buy more ag products like soybeans and pork bellies. But that really just takes us back to where we were when this whole thing started. So what really has been accomplished? We also have early reporting that a Phase 2 deal will not commence until after the 2020 elections. So is this the end of trade headline optimism? Meaning, what are the markets going to look to so that they can “justify” climbing higher? Perhaps the Federal Reserve will come to the rescue and just flush the markets with liquidity like they’ve already been doing – just in a larger order. Time will tell, but if there really is a deal, early reporting is also stating that it will not be released for public review and President Xi will not be signing it. So there’s that.

UK elections look to keep PM Boris Johnson and his Conservative party in power and by a wide margin. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is expected to step down as the leader following the election results. What does this mean for Brexit? Will it finally happen? It appears by the voice and vote of the British people that Brexit must occur. After all, it’s only been 3 1/2 years and counting.

Here in the US, the House Judiciary Committee is expected to vote on impeachment tomorrow morning following a marathon day of amendment issues, debates, and committee procedural votes. The vote in the affirmative for impeachment is likely, thus setting the stage for a full House vote on impeachment for next week. This will then move the trial to the US Senate where Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, is already working closely with the White House on how to proceed. Does this make sense? A juror is working closely with the defendant. What could possibly go wrong? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Trade #Economy #Impeachment #EndTheFed #Recession #Politics #Congress #Republic #Truth #Justice #Peace

Ep. 290 – A Race to the Bottom?

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 290 - A Race to the Bottom?
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Is it politics, the economy, global currencies, that we’re discussing when we note a race to the bottom? Or is it perhaps all of the above? Yes! It is all of the above, unfortunately. The Fed decided to keep rates steady and expects to do so throughout 2020, but we’re not holding our breath. It’s an election year and any market pullback of significance, and to this Fed, 5% might be considered significant, causing the Fed to intervene and cut rates again. And don’t forget about non-QE, QE, the o/n repo market, and the term repo market. Today’s decision, caused the dollar to weaken against a basket of currencies. How will these other countries respond? Most likely with further monetary easing of their own. Thus a race to the bottom.

An impeachment vote in the affirmative is all, but guaranteed and this, despite your opinions of the President, is a sad nation in the history of our Republic. If impeached, the next step will be for a trial to convene in the US Senate with US Senators the jury and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presiding. The rules of the trial will be made known soon after impeachment. This all of course assumes that President Donald J Trump is impeached.

This weekend a decision must be rendered by the President as to whether or not there will be an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. Postpone, cancel, or implement? – that is the question. Regardless of the decision, expect market volatility in one direction or the other. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Recession #Economy #EndTheFed #Impeachment #Politics #Truth #Justice #Peace #Congress #Republic

Ep. 281 – A Debt Fueled Market

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 281 - A Debt Fueled Market
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When we analyze US and rest of the world corporate debt and benchmark this against the Wilshire 5000 total market full cap index, we see a near 1 to 1 relationship. Thus implying that stock market performance is strongly linked to debt growth. This is no surprise to us here at The Kapital News, but it’s always interesting to see this data represented graphically. (We will do a video presentation on this as well). When one understands that debt is growth from the future being brought to the present, one must then ask the question, where will the future growth come from? This is the question at the heart of this central bank and debt expansion experiment. The Kapital News expects the fallout to be detrimental for generation(s). This also gives rise to outlandish and unsustainable valuations in the stock market. Market cap to US GDP is currently around 148% – levels not seen since the height of the dot-com bubble. Again, how long can this be sustained on a growing mountain of debt and currency creation?

In other news, President Trump has a major decision to make by 2 December as this is the deadline for him to sign the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights Act into law. Will he do it and risk upsetting the Chinese and thus a Phase 1 trade deal? Or will he cave and not sign it because he’s more concerned with the stock market as opposed to standing up for American values and human rights? Also coming due is a decision centered around tariffs. Come 15 December, tariffs are expected to increase and be placed on additional Chinese goods. Decisions. Decisions. American values? Human rights? Or new highs in the stock market? What will the President decide? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Truth #Debt #Recession #EndTheFed #Stocks #Trade #Politics #USA #China #HongKong #Justice #Peace #Republic

Ep. 274 – Who to Believe?

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 274 - Who to Believe?
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Who or what may we even be talking about with this headline? It’s a sad reality when I’m sure many of us can come up with a number of names and institutions that warrant this question of “who to believe?” Do we believe the President or the Democrats? The Republicans or the Democrats? The White House or the Chinese Communist Party? One news outlet over the next? These questions continue and continue and continue. So, we take the time today to run through some recent scenarios and how to analyze them from multiple perspectives in order to hopefully arrive at the truth – whatever that means and whatever that may be. The same stories continue and they will persist well into 2020 – you know what they are. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Truth #Justice #Peace #Politics #Economy #Recession #EndTheFed #Impeachment #HongKong

Ep. 264 – Global News Update

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 264 - Global News Update
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We’ve been discussing global events at a rapid pace as of late with financial and economic news and geopolitical unrest that takes us to nearly all corners of the world. In today’s podcast we provide some updates and insights on what has transpired and what we’re likely to see in the future.

We discuss the testimony of Boeing’s CEO before a Senate panel, updates to Brexit, protests in Lebanon and Chile, the Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting, US/China trade talks, and further news surrounding the impeachment inquiry. Somewhere in all of this is the truth, but it’s sadly becoming harder and harder to find. We also caution to be very mindful of these global protests – this is not transitory – this is historic. These are the cracks in the foundation making their way throughout the rest of the world. Remember that revolutions are fought on empty stomachs and people around the globe are upset with rising costs of food, living, medical expenses, and corrupt governments and politicians. The world is in the midst of a sea change – and it’s just getting started. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Protests #Recession #Impeachment #Brexit #Boeing #Economy #Politics #Lebanon #Chile #USA #China #UK #HongKong #Truth #Peace #Justice #Congress

Ep. 129B – Brexit: When Will It All End?

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 129B - Brexit: When Will It All End?
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Another day and another vote (or two) in the House of Commons. While UK PM Boris Johnson gets his first major victory during the first vote in today’s session – approving the Withdrawal Agreement, he was not so lucky on the second vote. The second vote pertained to an expedited schedule to get the Brexit deal through the legislative process and Parliament said no. MPs want more time to go through the agreement’s entirety and to have a thorough economic analysis conducted prior to giving their full blessing. Recall, the referendum was in June of 2016. Over three years and there is still bickering and much uncertainty around what a Brexit will actually look like. Now, given the outcome of today’s votes, it appears that the proverbial can is likely to get kicked further down the road. Despite the appearance of further dither and delay by Parliament, PM Johnson is still steadfast in his rhetoric that Brexit will take place on 31 October – only a handful of days away. Given other recent votes, this is now less and less likely and attention will now be paid to EU officials to see if they grant the UK yet another extension. There remains many moving parts when it comes to Brexit and should we be surprised that such high drama or dark comedy is unfolding in the land of Shakespeare? The only question is, in what act do we find ourselves?

In other news we discuss Q3 earning’s season, further news from Boeing, and the deal agreed to by President Erdogan and President Putin surrounding Syria. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Brexit #UK #Democracy #USA #Turkey #Russia #Syria #Justice #Peace #Truth #Boeing #Economy #Politics