Tag: BOE

Ep. 468 – Democrats + Republicans Have To Go!
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 468 - Democrats + Republicans Have To Go!
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This country is beyond its tipping point and the economic and political system is to blame – as are the people for allowing this to build up around them. The merger of big business with big government was always going to bring us to this point in time – it was merely a question as to when this would happen. Well, here we are. Taken with the two-party system, which is really just one party, has brought this nation to her knees, and because of the economic and political system, our choices are more of the same. This time with two, seventy-something years-old men, who, as we’ll put it nicely, have lost their fast ball. In such trying and dire times, we get to choose between a bombastic demagogue who takes zero responsibility and someone who has been in government for nearly fifty years who very much is a part of the problem and the system. This is pathetic, embarrassing, and a disgrace. And because these are bad choices, the country is still naturally split on who to vote for. It’s possible that there will be a red or blue wave, but it’s also possible that there’s a divided government – we don’t know which scenario is the worst one!

We are in the midst of the greatest depression. The reason we do not yet realize this is due to the fact that central governments and banks have thrown trillions of dollars into the system. All this has done is to buy the system some time. And in the interim, for these governments and central banks to give the newly printed money to their closest of friends and corporations. Meanwhile, small businesses and individuals are suffering, and unfortunately, this will continue. In fact, this is likely to get even worse. This is because the trillions of dollars have only served the purpose of keeping the system afloat. Once these dollars have been used and thus their effects diminished, then markets are going to have to face reality. This reality consists of, a commercial real estate collapse, millions of evictions, a countless number of insolvencies and bankruptcies, which will bring massive layoffs, residential real estate declines, and if the funny money cannot continue to lift equity prices, then massive selloffs in the equities markets. This podcast highlights the destructive nature of our system and provides an untold amount of data points and evidence affirming our argument. So the question becomes – when will you leave this two-party system and demand real change? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #USA #RNC #GOP #DNC

Ep. 467 – More Spending – Put Up or Shut Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 467 - More Spending - Put Up or Shut Up
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Wall Street did not like the fact that there was not another round of spending agreed to over the weekend or during the day’s trading session – equities sold off. This is the same song and dance we have witnessed several times before throughout 2018-2019 with the US-China trade talks, and the last several months with talks of more spending. Of course, we don’t have the money – but we guess, who cares?! Nonetheless, these stories are thrown out there to juice and pump stocks higher even though there isn’t really anything agreed to. But as we noted last week, as was the case in previous situations, there will come a day when the markets say enough talk – put up or shut up. Well that appears to have been the case today as noted by the selloff across the major indexes. Now, in overnight futures trading, we have the major indexes trading higher again on hopes that Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, along with the White House, and Republicans will continue talks tomorrow, and believe something can be agreed to prior to election day. These headlines are an insult, pure propaganda, and market manipulation, but we digress. And of course, it’s the country and the American people who suffer the consequences and are caught in the crossfire.

On the election front, some 31.3 million votes have already been cast, representing about 22.5 percent of the 2016 total vote turnout. This is quite astonishing and we may very well witness more than half the 2016 turnout occur before election day. This will likely lead to knowing on election night or the day after, who has won the Presidency – as opposed to having all or the majority of votes on election day. A potential con of all this early voting is voters may miss an, “October Surprise,” but we doubt this would have any major effect – most people know who they want to vote for and not much will sway that in either direction.

The President is campaigning heavily and has even been going to some strong red-states, such as Arizona and Georgia, thus signaling that the Trump campaign is concerned with the polling results coming out of these traditional red-states, which Trump won in 2016. President Obama will also be on the campaign trail this week for his former Vice President, as he makes stops in Pennsylvania. The race is still very much up for grabs, but if Biden is able to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he’s up in the polls for all three, then Joe Biden is likely the next President. This would even assume Trump wins the south as in 2016, Iowa, Nevada (which he lost in 2016), Texas, Arizona, and Ohio. So this paints a very big uphill battle for the President to gain those 270 electoral votes that are needed to cross the finish line. It can happen, but the path is slim. The last debate between the Presidential candidates is also taking place this Thursday. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Debates2020 #Inflation #Debt #Gold #Silver #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 466 – Weekly Wrap Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 466 - Weekly Wrap Up
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A recap of this week’s events pertaining to initial jobless claims, Presidential debates, market performance, negative rates, the broader election landscape with down ticket races, and debt and deficit figures. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Elections #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #Debates #Bailouts #USA

Ep. 465 – Townhalls + Jobs
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 465 - Townhalls + Jobs
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Two separate townhalls took place this evening in lieu of what should have been the second debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden. Nonetheless, the American people had a chance to watch these townhall events and for the public to ask questions of these two men running for the Presidency. As has been the case in prior townhalls, neither man derailed his campaign. Although there were clear differences in style and temperament, which of course should be no surprise. President Trump tends to be more aggressive, combative, and loud, while Biden tends to be more laid back, reserved, and civil. It is very likely that these differences in style and personality will drive the election results. People either want another four years of President Trump and his behavior and antics or they do not. Nearly 20 million people have already cast their votes, and come election day, it’s possible that half the country may have already voted.

On the initial jobless claims front, another 898,000 Americans filed an initial claim. This runs counter to the argument that this is a super V-shaped recovery. This was well above market expectations, which were around 820,000-825,000 – which is still a high figure. The previous week’s number was also revised upward by 5,000. In total, for persons claiming unemployment benefits, 25.3 million Americans are still receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 26 September and represents a decrease from the prior week of some 215,000 Americans. This is still a staggering and stubbornly high number. Further, we are still contending with the figures coming from the state of California being on pause as they make their way through their backlog of claims and implement a fraud prevention system. This is surely distortionary when attempting to gain a fuller picture of the jobs market – but we have been contending with distortions for months due to fiscal and monetary actions.

The increase in claims, however, is indicative of continuing stress in the economy and would be in agreement with what The Kapital News has been warning about for months. Mainly that fiscal and monetary policy will only get you so far, and that a printing press cannot print jobs. So when taking into consideration the insolvencies and bankruptcies, evictions, weakness in commercial and residential real estate markets, and subsequent layoffs that are waiting in the wings – it’s unfortunately not surprising that we continue to witness such job loss and future uncertainty. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debates #Jobs #Elections #USA #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Bailouts

Ep. 458 – The Trump Show + Biden Townhall
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 458 - The Trump Show + Biden Townhall
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The President has left Walter Reed Medical Center and has returned to the White House, despite his physician claiming that the President is still, “not out of the woods.” The Kapital News believes that this is a mistake and that the President should spend another day or two at least, in the hospital. He has the ability to work from this location if he so desires and he’s surrounded by the necessary personnel and equipment, should his condition deteriorate. There is still much to know as to the true state of the President’s health, as the White House and the President’s physician refuse to answer even the most basic of questions. This is a scenario where the American people have the right to know the true status of the President’s health. However, this is consistent and fitting with a White House that delays, dithers, and distorts the truth constantly. It is also an unfortunate event that several other members of the White House have tested positive for COVID-19. This is very much the Trump show – as he used today’s travel from the hospital to the White House as a photo opportunity. We hope the President recovers, but this type of theater is simply not needed.

This evening, former VP Joe Biden, was at a townhall event in Miami, Florida – a battleground state in the upcoming election. This was nothing special from Biden, nor were the questions from the audience. Missing constantly are the structural issues that are tearing this country apart, and everybody seems to simply ask the same questions over and over that have already been answered (for the most part). Still nowhere to be seen or heard are the issues related to the debt and deficits, the actions undertaken by the Congress, White House, and Federal Reserve to bailout one industry after the next – and more spending is on its way. No discussion about the market manipulation amongst the banks and the massive fines that they are paying – yet no one is held accountable. These and so many more questions like these have and will continue to be missing from the conversation – so do not be surprised that nothing changes for the better when you continually decided to vote for the same two-party system time and time again, and await a different result. This is the definition of insanity – and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #Jobs #Protests #Trump #Biden #Debates #RNC #DNC #Recession

Ep. 457 – Last Jobs Report Before Election
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 457 - Last Jobs Report Before Election
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The official jobs report was released last Friday and this will be the last jobs report prior to the elections of 3 November. Gaining 661,000 jobs in the month of September was well below market expectations. However, the unemployment level still declined to 7.9 percent. Looking deeper into the report, we witness an increase of 345,000 permanent job losers, taking this to a total of 3.8 million. This now represents an increase of around 2.5 million since February. Another figure that helps to point out that this is a structural issue, is the increase in the number of long-term unemployed (over 27 weeks), up 781,000 to 2.4 million. While it is welcomed news of people being rehired (mainly), or finding new jobs, it must be stressed that the fiscal and monetary policies that have been enacted are temporary in nature as to their potency. Yet, their costs will be long-lasting. These longer-term negative effects is what gives The Kapital News concern. This is witnessed by two factors, 1) there are still 26.5 million Americans claiming some form of unemployment benefit, and 2) Congress, the White House, and the Fed are all discussing another $1.5-2 trillion spending bill. If everything was great, and a V-shaped recovery is well underway, then why the need for more spending? And recall, we don’t have the money – so we’ll print it – this is inflationary. This inflation is very much a part of the devastating costs associated with these fiscal and monetary policies. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #Unemployment #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed

Ep. 456 – To Bailout Or Not To Bailout?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 456 - To Bailout Or Not To Bailout?
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In the banana republic of the United States that is the question. Evidently, spending over $7 trillion so far this year just isn’t enough, and the Nobody CARES Act could only take us so far. This leaves the Democrats and the White House negotiating for another massive spending bill. The Democrats are at $2.2 trillion, while the White House is closer to $1.6 trillion. In discussion is another round of bailouts for the airline industry – around $20 billion. Recall earlier in the year, the airline industry received $25 billion. During the first round, an arbitrary date of 30 September was established as the deadline, whereby the airlines would be set free to “fly” on their own. This was clearly in anticipation that the industry and broader economy would have been in recovery by now, and much closer to where things were prior to the pandemic. This is, unfortunately, not the case. The airlines have been making some noise over the last several weeks highlighting this fact, and dangling tens of thousands of further layoffs over the heads of Congress and the White House – seeking further bailouts. Well it appears that they may be getting their wish. As it stands now, another 32,000 jobs would be lost without further governmental assistance. So, let’s do the math: $20 billion divided by 32,000 jobs equates to $625,000 per job – not too shabby. We knew pilots were paid well, but $625,000?! No wonder the airlines wanted another bailout. Let us not forget that these are publicly traded companies that have access to financial markets – corporate debt and equity. There is ZERO reasoning behind why they should be coming to the US taxpayer to bail them out – let alone for the second time within one year.

It is Thursday, so the bulk of today’s discussion was focused on the initial jobless claims data. For the week ending 26 September, another 837,000 Americans filed for initial claims. This was slightly below market expectations around 850,000, but still another heartbreaking number nonetheless. The prior week’s figures were also adjusted higher by 3,000 to 873,000. In total for all persons claiming an unemployment benefit, for the week ending 12 September, 26.5 million is the number – an increase of some 485,000 from the week prior. An important technical note was added to the Department of Labor’s release, describing how the state of California will be pausing the release of their data due to the backlog of claims and to implement an anti-fraud system. The pause will be for two weeks. California is one of the largest economies on the planet in and of itself and is the most populous state in the country. This will further blur the true picture of the jobs market. What is also worth questioning, is what happens if the economy doesn’t quickly rebound and the backlog of claims continues to get larger – will the state “pause” further data releases? And finally, the last official jobs report prior to the 3 November elections will be released tomorrow. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #Unemployment #Elections #USA #Gold #Silver #Debt #Congress #Recession #Depression #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 367 – Gold, Oil, + War
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 367 - Gold, Oil, + War
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Remember the golden rule – those with the gold makes the rules. This of course is not the moral version of the true golden rule, but nevertheless, it’s one that the world has operated from for quite some time.

In today’s podcast we highlight the economic and financial news with initial jobless claims hitting 3.8 million in the prior week – taking the six week total to over 30 million Americans having filed for unemployment insurance. The Fed also updated their balance sheet and it’s week over week change was an additional $82B. This figure is well below that of the last several weeks as the Fed has added over $2T to its balance sheet over the past month.

The crux of today’s discussion is centered around the political blame game that is both coming and underway, especially as it relates to COVID19. We mention how this heated rhetoric may lead to conflict that may likely take the form of proxy war(s). A couple of strong candidates would be that of Iran and Venezuela. Over the last couple of days, news agencies have been noting how Venezuela has sent about $500 million worth of gold to Iran in exchange for Iran’s assistance with one of their refineries. Also, Venezuela has been asking the Bank of England, which stores some of Venezuela’s gold reserves, to sell some of their gold and give the proceeds to the United Nations. This would be to serve the purpose of assisting the UN so that in turn the UN may assist Venezuela combat COVID19 as well as their many economic woes. The Bank of England is refusing to comply with Venezuela’s request because the UK does not recognize the Maduro regime as the legitimate government. So now as a result, even more people will become refugees and/or suffer from starvation, energy shortages, and a myriad of economic problems.

So in short, when gold starts getting moved around (or is prohibited) and when it also pertains to a couple of countries that are both under harsh US sanctions, while at the same time both of these countries are heavily reliant on oil and gas – it makes us wonder here at The Kapital News as to what is truly going on and where me may be headed. In addition, US naval and military forces are around both countries. We do not want war, but if history is any indicator, we’re likely headed in that direction. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Gold #Oil #War #Economy #Recession #Debt #Bailouts #USA #Venezuela #Iran #Peace

Ep. 340 – Stage Set for Inflation?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 340 - Stage Set for Inflation?
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With all of the money printing and fiscal “stimulus” measures being undertaken around the world, when, oh, when, will inflation rear it’s ugly little head? Now, depending on the sector of the economy or a particular good and/or service, there may already be considerable inflation. However, when the United States has amassed over $23T in debt and rising in trillion dollar increments, while heading into a recession, if not depression, then how can this debt be paid off? Possibly through inflation or dare we even say, hyperinflation. Don’t say that it cannot happen, because if history is any guide, then that is almost certain to happen some time in the not too distant future. This will decimate any remaining purchasing power that people have. Savings will be destroyed. Many people who will be out of work due to the recession and/or depression will now have to also deal with ever-higher costs of living. Of course, much of this was predictable because what natural conclusion would follow generations of ever-increasing credit expansions, deficits, and debts on the household, corporate, governmental, and central bank balance sheet? Well we’re witnessing these negative effects coming together all at once and sad to say, we’re just getting started.

So, in our analysis, yes, the stage for inflation if not hyperinflation has been set. It’s a process and it will take time as there are still the effects of deflation hitting global markets because the demand side of the equation has been all but decimated. On the other side when this comes to pass, with all of the monetary and fiscal measures that have been undertaken and all of the debts and unfunded liabilities that remain on the books – a serious question will arise. How is this all to be paid for? Well economic growth is not going to do it because there’s not going to be enough growth to put a dent into the size of these debts – especially not during the years of a recession/depression. Therefore, a logical conclusion is to say it will be “paid” for through inflation/hyperinflation. Again, say good bye to our Constitutional Republic and say hello to our new banana republic. How far we have fallen. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #Debt #Bailouts #Depression #Deficits #USA #Politics #War #Peace #Truth #Justice #EndTheFed #Gold #Oil

Ep. 338 – The Great Unraveling
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 338 - The Great Unraveling
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We don’t know what the historians will call this time in which we currently find ourselves, but if we may, we would suggest they call it “The Great Unraveling.” A recession in the United States as well as most of the globe is all but certain, especially on a technical level. However, given the fact that the global economy was already slowing prior to the onset of COVID19 and the oil price war, it is likely that the world is headed towards a depression. We do not say this lightly. This is a very serious and dire situation as this will hurt millions if not billions of people on a number of fronts. The world needs leadership. And the world needs the truth. And unfortunately, the world is in short supply of both.

Here in the United States it’s not a question of bailouts, fiscal and monetary stimulus, it’s simply a question of how much is all of this going to cost? One industry after the next is lining up in Washington, DC seeking “assistance.” On the fiscal side, every time it’s discussed, the price tag goes higher and higher. From $850 billion to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, and we don’t know if we’re finished. If you think this is a lot of money – it is. But it doesn’t hold a candle to what the central banks are doing. The Federal Reserve has been pumping hundred of billions into the repo market. They’ve cut rates by 150bps over the last two weeks. They’ve made tapping the discount window more accommodative. And they’ve reduced the reserve requirements for banks with respect to cash on hand against deposits. Oh, and they’re still not done. Why does this continue? Are these people completely unaware that the reason we’re in The Great Unraveling is because of these very programs and actions that have been at the helm for over a decade? Again, there is no leadership to say that enough is enough. Or that these policies are not the cure, but rather the disease.

The funding of all of this, especially the bailouts and fiscal measures will be financed through debt. This means that the US Treasury is going to have to issue US Treasuries across the curve. This additional supply coming to the market is likely to depress bond prices, thus increasing yields (or borrowing costs). In addition, given the wave of global debt coming due, many countries around the world, especially emerging markets are selling their US Treasury holdings because they need US Dollars to satisfy their dollar denominated debts. This is also occurring at a time in the Foreign Exchange markets, where many (virtually all) of these currencies have been greatly weakened against the US Dollar. This then puts additional pressure on these same countries because it now takes more of their domestic currencies to be swapped for dollars. This is also coupled during a time of a global slowdown where prices for commodities are at decade(s) if not all-time lows. Many of these emerging economies are highly dependent on commodities for the economic survival. So it’s easily evident that much of the world is facing single, double, triple, and even quadruple whammies. This is a vicious downward spiral that will not find a bottom for some time and it will likely not end until this bottom is found. Central authorities are rendered impotent in such an environment despite their intentions and actions. Markets must be allowed to clear.

The people in the United States of America should be ashamed of what we have allowed to happen in and to our country. This is not the Constitutional Republic of Washington, Jefferson, Adams, and Franklin. Nor is this a country of free-market capitalism – because clearly what exists in this country is NOT free-market capitalism. This is the time for leadership, this is the time for the truth, this is the time to restore our country to our founding principles, and this is the time to place our faith and confidence in each other. Otherwise, this country will truly cease to be a country of, by, and for the people. Stay safe. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #TheGreatUnraveling #Debt #USA #Gold #Bonds #Oil #Truth #Peace #Bailouts #EndTheFed #1776