Tag: 2020

Ep. 465 – Townhalls + Jobs
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 465 - Townhalls + Jobs
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Two separate townhalls took place this evening in lieu of what should have been the second debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden. Nonetheless, the American people had a chance to watch these townhall events and for the public to ask questions of these two men running for the Presidency. As has been the case in prior townhalls, neither man derailed his campaign. Although there were clear differences in style and temperament, which of course should be no surprise. President Trump tends to be more aggressive, combative, and loud, while Biden tends to be more laid back, reserved, and civil. It is very likely that these differences in style and personality will drive the election results. People either want another four years of President Trump and his behavior and antics or they do not. Nearly 20 million people have already cast their votes, and come election day, it’s possible that half the country may have already voted.

On the initial jobless claims front, another 898,000 Americans filed an initial claim. This runs counter to the argument that this is a super V-shaped recovery. This was well above market expectations, which were around 820,000-825,000 – which is still a high figure. The previous week’s number was also revised upward by 5,000. In total, for persons claiming unemployment benefits, 25.3 million Americans are still receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 26 September and represents a decrease from the prior week of some 215,000 Americans. This is still a staggering and stubbornly high number. Further, we are still contending with the figures coming from the state of California being on pause as they make their way through their backlog of claims and implement a fraud prevention system. This is surely distortionary when attempting to gain a fuller picture of the jobs market – but we have been contending with distortions for months due to fiscal and monetary actions.

The increase in claims, however, is indicative of continuing stress in the economy and would be in agreement with what The Kapital News has been warning about for months. Mainly that fiscal and monetary policy will only get you so far, and that a printing press cannot print jobs. So when taking into consideration the insolvencies and bankruptcies, evictions, weakness in commercial and residential real estate markets, and subsequent layoffs that are waiting in the wings – it’s unfortunately not surprising that we continue to witness such job loss and future uncertainty. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debates #Jobs #Elections #USA #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Bailouts

Ep. 464 – Election October Surprises?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 464 - Election October Surprises?
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With only a few weeks to go until election day, it’s anybody’s guess if there will be an October surprise or two. A couple of stories out recently pertain to the unmasking of US citizens who also happened to be members of the Trump campaign in 2016 – this story has been peddled by President Trump for years, where he has gone so far to say President Obama has committed treason and should be prosecuted. Well, a prosecutor assigned to this case at the Justice Department has concluded that the Obama Administration did not break the law. This of course upset the President, and when asked if he would keep Attorney General Bill Barr as AG should he win re-election, the President replied, “no comment.” This is just another example of the boy who cries wolf, where the President has been making several claims about several reports over the last few years, only to turn out to be nothing – no arrests, no prosecutions, no fines, etc…

Another story comes from the New York Post pertaining to Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Allegedly there are emails and photos that suggest Joe Biden was aware of Hunter’s business dealings with Ukraine and perhaps other foreign countries. The timing of all of this is highly suspect being so close to election day. So the reasonable question to ask is, is this the truth or just a political hit being used to sway an election? The Biden campaign continues to deny any allegations that Joe Biden was aware of his son’s business dealings and played a role in such affairs.

There is desperation in the air as we get closer to 3 November and the Trump campaign has a big hill to climb to regain the Presidency – but it can happen – there are a couple of avenues to winning. However, relitigating the Clinton email scandal, the unmasking situation, hyping up other reports and investigations, and now the Biden email story, may not be the best way to unite a country that is in need of unification. But this is politics, and it’s going to be nasty – especially when the White House is the prize. Buckle up, it’s 2020, an election year, and a few more weeks to go – anything can happen. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Trump #Biden #Debt #Recession #Depression #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #USA

Ep. 463 – What’s The Market Pricing In?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 463 - What's The Market Pricing In?
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It would appear that the US stock market is priced to perfection. Meaning any false moves and events that run counter to what the market is expected could cause a cascading decline and increase in volatility. Even though the volatility index, (VIX), that monitors the S&P 500 has remained somewhat elevated trading in the 20 for quite awhile, and the MOVE Index, the VIX of the bond market, has hit all-time lows – the stock market is shrugging all of this off. This in effect saying that there are no major risk events on the horizon, traders/investors are complacent, that volatility is under control due to global central bank policies, and thus there is nothing to worry about. Furthermore, even if something “negative” should occur, there’s no need to worry because central governments and central banks will continue to have the “backs” of the market(s), and will flood the system with further fiscal spending and monetary liquidity injections.

This is no longer a market as they are completely decoupled from reality and the real economy. Yes, printing and spending trillions of dollars around the globe will make things appear ok – but only for a while and with a huge price tag associated with such policies. In addition, US markets seem to be pricing in a clear victory for the Biden/Harris ticket and with it, the prospects of a “blue wave,” meaning the Democrats take control of the House and Senate as well. This means that Trump will not contest the election and take it to the courts – where if this did happen, would go to the US Supreme Court. This kind of “certainty” and complacency that is permeating throughout the markets gives The Kapital News both pause and concern – markets love to surprise. Further, with respect to the MOVE index, might this be the calm before the storm? And if it is, increased and sizable volatility in the bond market will cause volatility to increase amongst many other markets, thus throwing this perfectly priced market into a possible tailspin. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Markets #Debt #Bailouts #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #USA

Ep. 460 – Pence v. Harris Debate
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 460 - Pence v. Harris Debate
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The first and only Vice Presidential debate took place tonight between VP Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris. Both sides did what they had to do in our opinion. Pence had to defend the Trump Administration’s record as best he could and attempt to do so with a more serious and civil tone – he succeeded. Harris on the other hand had to simply keep the pace, as the Biden/Harris ticket is well ahead in the polls – even in key swing states and among key demographics – she succeeded. The main event is always the Presidential race and thus the Presidential candidates, and this race is no different. There are only a few short weeks to go until 3 November, and despite that, it must be stressed that anything can happen between now and then. It still is anybody’s race, but given the recent events surrounding the debates thus far, among other concerns, The Kapital News is now forecasting a likely victory for the Biden/Harris ticket. Again, this could change, but if the course remains steady then it will be an extreme uphill battle for the Trump/Pence ticket to win re-election.

In other news, the President reversed course with respect to stopping the negotiations surrounding another round of spending and is once again claiming that he wants to sign a deal. This is borderline insanity and shows the immense power of the words and actions of the President. Yesterday following his tweet to stop the talks, the markets sold off massively. Today, due to the reversal – stocks rallied nearly 2 percent. The President knows of his power and what he’s doing – this is market manipulation and needs to be investigated. These actions have been taking place in the face of the American people since 2017 – it needs to end. The President is also increasing the amount he’d like to give to the airline industry from $20 billion to $25 billion. The previous amount worked out to $625,000 per job “saved.” Now, with the increase, it’ll amount to $781,250 per job “saved.” This is beyond ridiculous. These are publicly traded companies – let them issue shares, go to the corporate debt markets, seek loans from banks, sale their assets, etc. The last place they should be coming for assistance is to the American taxpayer. This should tell you all you need to know as to who our elected officials are really working for. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Bailouts #Jobs #Inflation #RNC #DNC #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Liberty #Revolution #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #USA

Ep. 459 – The Circus Continues
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 459 - The Circus Continues
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Presidential tweets caused markets to swing back ‘n forth, ending the day lower. Earlier in the afternoon, stocks rallied off the news that the President was feeling better and not exhibiting any symptoms of COVID-19. This rally was only later to be reversed by yet another tweet, whereby the President ordered his representatives to end the negotiations with the Democrats on another spending bill – stocks sold off massively. This is an interesting turn of events, as earlier the President was praising the economy and stock market – only to tweet out the stoppage of further spending that the stock market has been hoping for over the last several weeks. Also interesting is the fact that only a few days ago, the President was telling Congress to get their act together to pass another spending bill. Furthermore, the President a couple of weeks ago during a press conference at the White House, called out Republicans to go for the, “big one,” with respect to another spending bill – claiming that it (the money), all comes back to the USA anyway. Now while the President has stopped the negotiations, he is claiming that another spending bill will be passed after he wins his re-election. So, is the President holding this money as ransom?

We know through various surveys that nearly 50 percent of US households are broke. And we know that some 30 to 40 percent of small businesses have claimed that if they do not receive further assistance from Congress that they will not be able to last through the end of the year. These figures do not count the number of small businesses that have already closed their doors for good. Now make the logical connection(s), without further governmental assistance, many more small businesses will be forced to file bankruptcy and/or liquidate, which will result in further layoffs, which in turn will lead to lower demand for various goods and services throughout the economy, thus causing further downward pressure. This is in stark contrast to how the President notes that the economy is on a fast track to recovery. Then, coincidentally today, we have Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, making comments that without further spending by Congress, the economy may face tragic outcomes. This is some of the strongest language that the Fed Chair has used to stress the need for further fiscal measures. So – somebody is not telling us the truth. On one hand, the President says everything is fine and further spending can wait and/or isn’t needed; and on the other, we have the Fed Chair claiming that major risks exist to the economy/markets if further fiscal actions are not taken.

The Kapital News believes that this house of cards economy is on the verge of collapse. We have consistently been against both fiscal and monetary efforts to “bolster” the US economy and markets since the very beginning and even before they were enacted. There is no free lunch and the costs associated with these efforts will be felt for at least a generation. Meanwhile, any short-term “positive” effects that these measures may have brought have already run its course. Note that some $9.6 trillion has been spent from Federal/State/Local governments and this is where we are: some 26.5 million Americans still claiming unemployment insurance, permanent job losers at 3.8 million, a level not seen since 2013, median duration of unemployed at levels not seen since 2012, tens of millions of evictions waiting in the wings, a countless number of bankruptcies and insolvencies, and with it massive layoffs. So, no, this is not a strong economic recovery. This is simply an attempt by government and central bank figures to keep this mirage of an economy afloat – and in the interim it is decimating small businesses and middle-America – and the true costs of it all have not even been realized – yet. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Debt #Elections #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #Liberty #Revolution #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Jobs #Recession #Depression #GE #Boeing

Ep. 458 – The Trump Show + Biden Townhall
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 458 - The Trump Show + Biden Townhall
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The President has left Walter Reed Medical Center and has returned to the White House, despite his physician claiming that the President is still, “not out of the woods.” The Kapital News believes that this is a mistake and that the President should spend another day or two at least, in the hospital. He has the ability to work from this location if he so desires and he’s surrounded by the necessary personnel and equipment, should his condition deteriorate. There is still much to know as to the true state of the President’s health, as the White House and the President’s physician refuse to answer even the most basic of questions. This is a scenario where the American people have the right to know the true status of the President’s health. However, this is consistent and fitting with a White House that delays, dithers, and distorts the truth constantly. It is also an unfortunate event that several other members of the White House have tested positive for COVID-19. This is very much the Trump show – as he used today’s travel from the hospital to the White House as a photo opportunity. We hope the President recovers, but this type of theater is simply not needed.

This evening, former VP Joe Biden, was at a townhall event in Miami, Florida – a battleground state in the upcoming election. This was nothing special from Biden, nor were the questions from the audience. Missing constantly are the structural issues that are tearing this country apart, and everybody seems to simply ask the same questions over and over that have already been answered (for the most part). Still nowhere to be seen or heard are the issues related to the debt and deficits, the actions undertaken by the Congress, White House, and Federal Reserve to bailout one industry after the next – and more spending is on its way. No discussion about the market manipulation amongst the banks and the massive fines that they are paying – yet no one is held accountable. These and so many more questions like these have and will continue to be missing from the conversation – so do not be surprised that nothing changes for the better when you continually decided to vote for the same two-party system time and time again, and await a different result. This is the definition of insanity – and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #Jobs #Protests #Trump #Biden #Debates #RNC #DNC #Recession

Ep. 457 – Last Jobs Report Before Election
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 457 - Last Jobs Report Before Election
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The official jobs report was released last Friday and this will be the last jobs report prior to the elections of 3 November. Gaining 661,000 jobs in the month of September was well below market expectations. However, the unemployment level still declined to 7.9 percent. Looking deeper into the report, we witness an increase of 345,000 permanent job losers, taking this to a total of 3.8 million. This now represents an increase of around 2.5 million since February. Another figure that helps to point out that this is a structural issue, is the increase in the number of long-term unemployed (over 27 weeks), up 781,000 to 2.4 million. While it is welcomed news of people being rehired (mainly), or finding new jobs, it must be stressed that the fiscal and monetary policies that have been enacted are temporary in nature as to their potency. Yet, their costs will be long-lasting. These longer-term negative effects is what gives The Kapital News concern. This is witnessed by two factors, 1) there are still 26.5 million Americans claiming some form of unemployment benefit, and 2) Congress, the White House, and the Fed are all discussing another $1.5-2 trillion spending bill. If everything was great, and a V-shaped recovery is well underway, then why the need for more spending? And recall, we don’t have the money – so we’ll print it – this is inflationary. This inflation is very much a part of the devastating costs associated with these fiscal and monetary policies. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #Unemployment #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed

Ep. 456 – To Bailout Or Not To Bailout?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 456 - To Bailout Or Not To Bailout?
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In the banana republic of the United States that is the question. Evidently, spending over $7 trillion so far this year just isn’t enough, and the Nobody CARES Act could only take us so far. This leaves the Democrats and the White House negotiating for another massive spending bill. The Democrats are at $2.2 trillion, while the White House is closer to $1.6 trillion. In discussion is another round of bailouts for the airline industry – around $20 billion. Recall earlier in the year, the airline industry received $25 billion. During the first round, an arbitrary date of 30 September was established as the deadline, whereby the airlines would be set free to “fly” on their own. This was clearly in anticipation that the industry and broader economy would have been in recovery by now, and much closer to where things were prior to the pandemic. This is, unfortunately, not the case. The airlines have been making some noise over the last several weeks highlighting this fact, and dangling tens of thousands of further layoffs over the heads of Congress and the White House – seeking further bailouts. Well it appears that they may be getting their wish. As it stands now, another 32,000 jobs would be lost without further governmental assistance. So, let’s do the math: $20 billion divided by 32,000 jobs equates to $625,000 per job – not too shabby. We knew pilots were paid well, but $625,000?! No wonder the airlines wanted another bailout. Let us not forget that these are publicly traded companies that have access to financial markets – corporate debt and equity. There is ZERO reasoning behind why they should be coming to the US taxpayer to bail them out – let alone for the second time within one year.

It is Thursday, so the bulk of today’s discussion was focused on the initial jobless claims data. For the week ending 26 September, another 837,000 Americans filed for initial claims. This was slightly below market expectations around 850,000, but still another heartbreaking number nonetheless. The prior week’s figures were also adjusted higher by 3,000 to 873,000. In total for all persons claiming an unemployment benefit, for the week ending 12 September, 26.5 million is the number – an increase of some 485,000 from the week prior. An important technical note was added to the Department of Labor’s release, describing how the state of California will be pausing the release of their data due to the backlog of claims and to implement an anti-fraud system. The pause will be for two weeks. California is one of the largest economies on the planet in and of itself and is the most populous state in the country. This will further blur the true picture of the jobs market. What is also worth questioning, is what happens if the economy doesn’t quickly rebound and the backlog of claims continues to get larger – will the state “pause” further data releases? And finally, the last official jobs report prior to the 3 November elections will be released tomorrow. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #Unemployment #Elections #USA #Gold #Silver #Debt #Congress #Recession #Depression #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 455 – Electoral College Map Math
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 455 - Electoral College Map Math
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It’s a race to 270 electoral college votes and the heat is on. After last night’s national disgrace of a debate, we think it’s safe to assume that the election at this juncture is leaning towards the Biden/Harris ticket. Upon reviewing the electoral college map, it’s already an uphill battle for the President to win re-election. When he won in 2016 he pulled an inside-straight, and even in doing so, it was by razor thin margins accounting for some 70-80,000 votes across a few states. What is interesting, however, is that there is a real possibility of a 269-269 outcome. And in the year of 2020, all things are possible. There are of course other maps that would have razor thin margins of victory as well. However, the point we want to make with these closer contests is the very real likelihood that the Presidency will be contested in the courts. Such a legal battle could take weeks and even months to sort itself out. Recall in 2000 the contested votes in the state of Florida. This time around, should it be a close election that is contested, it will involve several states. Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, there is going to be some major steam and pressure released throughout the country – and let us all remember that we are all Americans. Pray for peace. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Elections #Trump #Biden #USA #Economy #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 453 – Presidential Showdown – Trump v. Biden
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 453 - Presidential Showdown - Trump v. Biden
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Tomorrow will be the first Presidential debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden – taking place in Cleveland, Ohio and hosted by Fox News anchor, Chris Wallace. During today’s podcast we discuss the potential outcomes and various scenarios of tomorrow evening’s event. However, what we stress the most during our conversation today are the structural issues facing the country, and if any of these topics will be addressed. We imagine that a couple will be noted, but we’re not holding our breath that brilliant policies will be mentioned either. In fact, we believe that some of the biggest issues will not even me mentioned – such as the Federal Reserve and their policies; the bankruptcies and insolvencies that are waiting in the wings; the national debt – but more specifically, the question of, “do debts and deficits matter, and if yes, why, and if not, why not?” Are the candidates concerned about inflation, stagflation, or hyperinflation? Are they concerned with a stock market at record levels, with respect to valuations? Are they concerned with the solvency of the US Treasury? Or what about the millions of evictions that are likely coming down the pike once the moratoriums are lifted? These are some basic questions and concepts that need to be addressed and taken seriously, but something tells us that they’re barely going to receive a mention and even if they are – the candidates will not likely address them head-on. This is a failure of leadership – but with all this said, The Kapital News hopes to be proven wrong – that these questions will be asked and that they will be thoughtfully and thoroughly answered. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #RNC #DNC #Trump #Biden #Election #USA #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed