Tag: Yields

Ep. 584 – Job Or Just A Paycheck?

The Kapital News

Ep. 584 - Job Or Just A Paycheck?

00:00 / 00:33:34

Evidently one does not need a job in order to receive a paycheck in the new America. As stated by President Biden yesterday evening, Americans should not have to choose between a job or a paycheck. So presumably, one can go to work and earn a paycheck, or one can simply decide that they would prefer to just receive a paycheck by doing nothing. It would have to be assumed that the government will be sending out the checks. This is beyond ridiculous, but this is what was said. As The Kapital News has been stating for the last couple of years and especially last year, with all of the stimulus checks that were sent out, was how the American people were being conditioned to accept money from the government. This is a trial run at universal basic income or UBI, which is part of modern monetary theory, or MMT. The overall belief is that money grows on trees, deficits and debts do not matter, and if inflation should ever be of concern, just raise taxes. A terribly flawed idea and it should not even be considered an idea – that is how bad it is. Nonetheless, many Americans have grown accustomed to and fond of these checks from the government, not realizing the true cost that awaits them on the other side. This will take the form of much higher prices, higher taxes, lower living standards, and the loss of opportunities.

Initial jobless claims came in at 553,000 for the week ending 24 April. The prior week was revised upward by 19,000 to now stand at 566,000. While the regular state unemployment number is now below the figures we saw during the depths of the GFC, when taken together with the federal program of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or PUA, which came in at 122k, in aggregate still keeps us above those GFC figures for over a year. While trending lower, there is still along way to go as prior to the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, claims were between 200-300k. In aggregate, some 16.6 million Americans continue to claim some form of unemployment insurance. This gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 11.9 percent, which is still about 2x as high as the official rate at 6.0 percent. Next Friday will be the release of the official jobs report for the month of April.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet retreated by $40 billion from last week’s all-time high and now stands at $7.78 trillion. The Fed remains committed to their QE policy of purchasing at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgaged-backed securities. This will take their balance sheet to around $8.5 trillion by the end of the year and The Kapital News is projecting it may be closer to $10 trillion. For perspective, the balance sheet was just shy of $900 billion prior to the GFC. Monetary measures of M1 and M2 were also released. These figures used to be updated weekly, but are now refreshed on a monthly basis. M1 and M2 both hit new all-time highs, at $18.68 trillion and $19.89 trillion, respectively. These were month-over-month increases of $280 billion and $250 billion, respectively. The ultimate narrative that matters is this one that pertains to central bank actions and the injections of liquidity into the system. Should markets continue to buy into it, then markets likely continue grinding higher. But should they cease to buy into it, or the system hits exhaustion, or an endogenous or exogenous event occurs, they it is likely game, set, and match for this decade plus long bull market.

Lastly, several active military officials in France are warning of a civil war breaking out in the country. The rush of immigrants into the country over recent years is one such reason cited by the officials, along with other government policies that they believe are leading to the downfall of the country. The French government will be dealing with these individuals via military council, but their message has already been heard. With all of the actions and policies that have been implemented by governments and central banks around the world, the global system has been materially weakened. This type of rhetoric, along with the global protests, riots, revolutions, civil wars, conflicts, and coups will only pick up steam from here. The true costs of all of these policies have yet to be fully felt and once they are, global flare ups will be the norm in countries large and small, weak and powerful. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #FoodPrices #Debt #Spending #bananarepublic #EndTheFed #FireCongress #Liberty #USA #Leadership #Bailouts #Protests

Ep. 583 – Powell + Biden Speak, Trillion Dollar Giveaways

The Kapital News

Ep. 583 - Powell + Biden Speak, Trillion Dollar Giveaways

00:00 / 00:34:16

Just when you thought multi-trillion dollar deficits for the past couple of years was bad enough, wait…there is more! The one-two punch from monetary and fiscal authorities keeps coming with no end in sight. The government, especially the Democrat party wants to continue with the massive spending spree and the Federal Reserve is more than happy to continue to finance such profligacy. Of course nothing is free and the results will be higher direct taxes at every level, federal, state, and local, higher inflation, lower living standards, and fewer opportunities. One cannot fix a global debt crisis with even more debt. Yet no policy maker regardless of political party or monetary institution wants to take responsibility or accountability for their years of reckless and criminal behavior. We do not have the right to steal from future generations, yet that is exactly what it means when we run these types of annual deficits and accumulate a national debt of over $28 trillion and growing!

Today was the conclusion of the FOMC meeting and as expected the Fed left the Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 0.00-0.25 percent. They also maintained their stance with respect to their QE program whereby they will continue to purchase at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Last week their balance sheet hit a record high of over $7.8 trillion. Fed Chair, Jay Powell, continues to reiterate that inflation expectations will be transitory and will be a result of base effects, due to the low levels seen last year due to the lockdowns. In effect, he is stating that the Fed is just going to wait and see what happens next year, because the base effects will be in play through the remainder of this year. So a large print on inflation may very well occur and the Fed will just presumably shrug it off and say it is only due to base effects. We wonder if the people who have to pay higher prices will be so nonchalant about their currency being devalued?

Finally some tougher questions were asked of Jay Powell, but most likely simply due to the obvious absurdity of their policies and rhetoric. For instance, questions were asked with respect to the real estate market, which is currently hitting all-time highs with prices and other metrics. It was then asked with this as a backdrop, why then does the Fed continue to purchase $40 billion per month of MBS? It may be understood and even accepted that during the GFC, housing prices were collapsing and MBS were toxic assets and the Fed was attempting to inject liquidity into the system via these purchases. That was then and this is now. The GFC was an emergency and thus they justified their actions because of the falling house prices. Now, we have prices at all-time highs and the Fed also states that the economy is recovering – so where is the emergency to justify these purchases? A fair and basic question that received a terrible answer or better yet a non-answer, but at least the question was asked. On the other side, however, giving credit where credit is due, Jay Powell did admit that rising housing prices are pricing people out of the market, especially younger people, and that this is problematic. This is true. Yet does he not understand that much of this is a direct result of monetary policies that he is responsible for and fiscal policies of which his institution finances? This summarizes who and what we are dealing with.

This evening President Joe Biden gave an address to a joint-session of Congress. In his hour long speech he promised trillions of dollars in new spending on top of the trillions of dollars already passed to be spent during his short-time in office. There is completely no understanding of basic mathematics that exists within Congress, especially within the Democrat party. For instance, the Biden administration wants to increase taxes on the wealthiest of individuals and corporations. And presumably, with this extra tax revenue all of these new and old programs will be funded. Well not so fast. We are on track to spend nearly $8 trillion this year alone! This will give us an annual budget deficit of over $4 trillion. Our deficit will be larger than the entire amount of tax revenue that is brought in, which is around $3.5 trillion. Further, if you take $8 trillion and divide by 52 weeks in the year, you get around $154 billion of spending per week! And this is just the federal government. So, you can confiscate 100 percent of Jeff Bezos’ net worth, not just income, but everything the man owns, and it will only finance the US federal government for one full week! Yeah it does not add up and look who is in control of the education system – yep the government. These programs are outrageous, un-American, and unconstitutional. Yet none of that is going to stop them from trying to pass more legislation and spend trillions of dollars that we do not have – thus stealing it from future generations and robbing them of their prosperity and opportunities. This is all only going to get worse. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Fraud #Inflation #Spending #Debt #Gold #Silver #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Liberty #USA #Leadership #Revolution #Protests #Peace

Ep. 581 – Youth Revolts Coming

The Kapital News

Ep. 581 - Youth Revolts Coming

00:00 / 00:33:17

Global protests and riots were occurring throughout 2019, which must not be forgotten. These movements were emblematic of a weakening world economy prior to the pandemic. The subsequent lockdowns and restrictions only made things worse. Yet due to the restrictions, these protests were muted. However, given the responses by federal governments and central banks, The Kapital News believes that the setting is ripe once again for such protests to take shape.

The country of Chile was on the list of countries protesting in 2019 and given the current environment, copper miners in the country are on strike. The people want the ability to tap into their pensions to act as a bridge to help support themselves and their families financially until conditions improve. They have done this twice before already and were looking for the opportunity to do so for a third time. However, the President of the country declined – thus the strikes. Chile is a major copper producing country and world markets have already been contending with higher commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. This action will only serve to aggravate current conditions, which was witnessed earlier today with the price of copper reaching near $4.50 per pound. And despite one large price increase after the next in one commodity after the next, we are routinely told that there is no inflation. What a joke! And this is one of the many reasons as to why protests will gain momentum.

Another source for youth frustration is in the real estate market. Take South Korea for example where young people in their 20s and 30s are all but priced out of the market and rents keep climbing higher as well. In the capital city of Seoul, apartment prices have risen nearly 58 percent since President Moon has been in office. The young people have recently shown their frustration in political elections, which led to the government implementing a program to cap rent increases at 5 percent. The Kapital News is against rent controls as they tend to backfire, as the caps are usually below where market forces would naturally clear, thus generating shortages, which in turn leads to higher prices. Nonetheless, several politicians are suspected to have front-run the legislation with respect to their investment properties. Meaning that before the 5 percent cap increase went into effect, these politicians increased their rents by as much as 14 percent! So much for looking out for their constituents. It appears that politicians are politicians whichever country you may find yourself.

Such actions undertaken prior to the pandemic, currently, and what will likely transpire in the future, will all serve as fuel to the growing fire that is youth revolts. Young people know all too well that it is they who will be paying the bulk of the bill for all of these asinine and criminal policies. The price will be paid in a number of ways of such as, increased direct taxation, higher rates of inflation, lower living standards than previous generations, fewer opportunities, and less prosperity. All of the actions undertaken today are simply to give the false façade of economic strength and vitality. Printing and spending trillions of dollars will buy you time, and make things look good for a short period of time, but when the bill comes due as it always does, it will be extremely expensive. Younger generations will nearly be forced to demand major structural changes if they are to have a future for themselves and their families. This is just getting underway and will likely be a decades long phenomena before the dust settles. Let us pray that these movements are as peaceful as possible and that equal justice under law and free-market capitalism are adopted. If so, the best days may be ahead of us, if not, then more of the same under a different name. Youth revolts are coming. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Protests #Peace #Inflation #FoodPrices #Commodities #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Revolution #USA

Ep. 579 – Job Market Distortions + Higher Taxes

The Kapital News

Ep. 579 - Job Market Distortions + Higher Taxes

00:00 / 00:28:31

For the second consecutive week, initial jobless claims came in under 600k to stand at 547,000 for the week ending 17 April. While this figure is below that which was witnessed during the depths of GFC, we cannot forget the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program that was created by the Federal government. This figure came in at 133,319, which means in aggregate, weekly claims were 680,000 – still higher than the GFC, yet trending lower, and that is good news. The prior week was revised higher by 10k to now stand at 586,000. In aggregate, across all forms of unemployment insurance, some 17.4 million Americans continue to claim benefits. This gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 12.5 percent, which is more than double the official unemployment rate of 6.0 percent.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet hit another all-time high and now stands at $7.82 trillion, which was a week-over-week increase of $27 billion. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities per month. This will take their balance sheet to at least $8.5 trillion by the end of the year, and The Kapital News is projecting that it will be closer to $10 trillion! For context, their balance sheet was just shy of $900 billion during the GFC. This is nearly a 10x increase in just a little over a decade! And do recall that when QE was announced that it was going to be temporary. This program is a couple of years away from applying for a driver’s license – so much for short-lived. It is important to note this because current Fed members are stating that inflation will only be transitory. The same people who said QE would be temporary are saying the same about inflation – see where we are going with this?

As The Kapital News has been mentioning since we have been online starting in 2019, is to get ready for tax hikes. We were running trillion dollar deficits prior to the pandemic, the subsequent lockdowns, and massive spending programs. It is basic math at the end of the day. We are all for cutting taxes, in fact, we want to see the income tax abolished, along with the Federal Reserve. However, if policymakers are going to cut taxes, then they need to cut spending as well. Only solving for half of the equation is asking for trouble – i.e. large deficits. These deficits bring about the hidden tax of inflation, and now because of the size of our deficits, tax increases are coming. It was only a matter of time, but now the Biden Administration is discussing raising taxes. Their first target is capital gains taxes in a show to target the rich, but make no mistake that they will also be broad-based when the dust settles. We are dealing with a $28.2 trillion national debt. We are on the path to spend nearly $8 trillion this year alone, which gives us a deficit of over $4 trillion! Our deficit alone is higher than all of the tax revenue that is brought in annually, which is currently around $3.5 trillion! How sustainable do you think this is? And unfortunately, there is not much to show for it. So it is another double whammy as usual as we have to contend with the inflation tax and an increase to direct taxation. It should also be stressed that confiscating the entire net worth of the country’s wealthiest individuals would only cover expenses for several months. Point being, we are in a lot of trouble and attempting to tax and spend our way out of it, is not the solution. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #Taxes #Debt #Spending #Gold #Silver #USA #Bailouts #Liberty #Leadership #Justice #Truth #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress

Ep. 575 – Initial Claims Below GFC, Gov’t Fuels Retail

The Kapital News

Ep. 575 - Initial Claims Below GFC, Gov't Fuels Retail

00:00 / 00:32:28

Initial jobless claims for regular state unemployment benefits finally came in below the levels seen during the depths of the GFC, with a number of 576,000 for the week ending 10 April. The prior week was revised upward by 25,000 to now stand at 769,000. However, it must also be understood that since the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, the Congress passed the Nobody CARES Act, which created the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program that allows people who would normally not qualify for regular state aid to file a claim. This number came in at 132,000, which in aggregate takes us north of 700,000 initial jobless claims. So still not entirely below the GFC levels, but trending that way and hopefully that continues. However, The Kapital News remains highly skeptical as printing, borrowing, and spending this money is not real economic growth or productivity. This means we have be living off of a temporary “high” from such fiscal and monetary measures that could lead to further economic deterioration.

Other economic news released today pertained to US retail sales, which came in well above market expectations with a print of 9.8 percent month-over-month. The prior month was revised downward to -2.7 percent. This data has been tracking very closely with the money handed out by the government. January saw a nice increase due to stimulus checks, February saw the drawdown referenced above, and March saw the big jump, most likely due to a combination of stimulus checks and tax refunds. Should this trend continue, then absent some further government money, retail sales will likely cool off. However, it should be noted that government money will be sent out to people with children. And it should be stressed that by government money, we mean US taxpayer money.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has hit a new all-time high to now stand at $7.79 trillion! A week-over-week increase of some $80 billion. The Fed remains committed to their QE policy of purchasing a minimum of $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed continues with such a policy with respect to MBS, despite housing prices at all-time highs. At a minimum, the balance sheet will likely hit $8.5 trillion by the end of the year, and could be closer to $10 trillion, should fiscal and monetary authorities take further action in the markets. For context, prior to the GFC, their balance sheet was around $900 billion.

Lastly, Chinese economic data coming across the wires shows GDP for Q1 year-over-year grew by 18.3 percent. Despite such a large increase, this was below market expectations that were closer to 19 percent. Further, Chinese residential real estate prices grew by 4.6 percent year-over-year. Earlier this year, Chinese regulators noted that their real estate market was likely in a bubble. This recent data appears to indicate that this continues to be the case. The regulators were also pointing fingers at the US and European economies, and stating that these economies were also in bubbles. Essentially setting the stage to blame the US and European nations should there be any weakness in the economy and/or financial system. With all of the fiscal and monetary actions that have been conducted throughout 2020 and continuing to today and beyond has placed the global economy on even shakier ground, thus making the global system that much more fragile and susceptible to shocks. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #USA #China #Liberty #Gold #Silver #Debt #Spending #Bailouts #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Fraud

Ep. 572 – Markets Overnight, Jay Powell Speaks

The Kapital News

Ep. 572 - Markets Overnight, Jay Powell Speaks

00:00 / 00:23:26

Another softball interview conducted by 60 Minutes, where they once again interviewed the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell. A lot has transpired since they last spoke with the Fed Chair nearly one year ago, and one would think that there would be some hard-hitting questions. This was unfortunately not the case. There are some very common sensical questions that could have and should have been asked. These questions would have been respectful and reasonable to ask, but they were non-existent. Instead, it was a platform given to the Federal Reserve to continue to spew their propaganda and ever-changing narrative to fit their purpose. The American people deserve better than this from their media. A healthy and successful Republic requires an informed electorate and the media is to serve as the 4th branch of government to achieve this end. Instead, the media is more of a lapdog for our government and major institutions as opposed to the constant skeptic they are supposed to be. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflaion #Debt #FederalReserve #EndTheFed #USA #Liberty #Leadership #bananarepublic #FireCongress

Ep. 571 – Another 750,000 Jobs Bite The Dust

The Kapital News

Ep. 571 - Another 750,000 Jobs Bite The Dust

00:00 / 00:30:27

Were we not just informed last Friday with the release of a “stellar” jobs report that the economy and namely the jobs market recovery was well underway? Well then how can we have another 744,000 Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week ending 3 April? Furthermore, you have to understand that this figure only represents regular state unemployment benefits. However, due to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns and restrictions, federal government programs were established to assist those who would not traditionally qualify for state benefits. So, taking into consideration such a program, known as Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or PUA, we see that nearly 152,000 Americans filed an initial claim for the week ending 3 April. This means in aggregate that nearly 900,000 Americans filed an initial claim last week! Talk about recovery, as this is now over one full year since such draconian measures have been implemented. Last week’s figure of 719,000 was revised upward to now stand at 728,000 for the week ending 27 March. In aggregate, across all unemployment programs, some 18.2 million Americans continue to file claims. This is little changed from the prior week, and gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 12.7 percent. This is more than double the official unemployment rate, which now rests at 6.0 percent.

In other news, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet sits at $7.708 trillion, which is a week-over-week increase of $20 billion and is just shy of hitting a new all-time high. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. They continue to purchase MBS despite the fact that housing prices are at all-time highs and continue to climb, even as lumber and other construction materials prices continue their ascent.

And lastly, major geopolitical risks are taking shape around the globe. Whether it is increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, Northern Ireland rioting against Brexit, how the US is involved in all of these areas, or leaders in Italy and Turkey doing some name-calling, one thing is certain, the globe is on very unstable ground. With so much taking place, it increases the likelihood of mistakes being made or it creates the perfect environment for a false-flag attack, which will then be used as justification for conflict or even war. And oh yes, the Middle East and Africa remain hot spots for conflict as well. And if enough people in poorer and middle-income nations does not constitute enough financial strife, add Canada to the mix. A new survey released indicates that 53 percent of Canadians are on the verge of insolvency as they are only $200 away from not being able to pay their monthly bills and debt obligations. This figure includes the 30 percent of Canadians who are already insolvent. And despite all of this or perhaps because of it, real estate prices in Canada continue to skyrocket, with many homes selling well above their asking price, site unseen! But remember, our fearless leaders inform us that there is NO inflation. What a joke. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #Geopolitics #Protests #Peace #USA #Liberty #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #China #Russia #Germany #Ukraine #Taiwan #Philippines #Italy #Turkey #Canada

Ep. 570 – Uncle Sam’s Debt Is Junk

The Kapital News

Ep. 570 - Uncle Sam's Debt Is Junk

00:00 / 00:38:37

We say it on a near daily basis when covering market performance, and that is calling out Uncle Sam’s debt as junk. It is not said to be facetious or to act as a wise-guy, but rather to admit reality. Currently, junk bond or high yielding debt is trading near all-time lows and is trending lower. Meanwhile, the US 10 year note and 30 year bond, are trending higher. There has never been a time when these yields have converged and rightly so. US debt is supposed to be risk-free, whereas junk bonds are called junk because there are several inherent and obvious risks. The higher the yield, the higher the chance of default. During the GFC, high yield hit nearly 23 percent! This was an example of markets functioning in attempts to accurately price risk. Well not this time. While it is true that yields spiked during the onset of the pandemic, rising to over 11 percent, they quickly came back down. The reason was because of fiscal and monetary measures. Emphasis given to monetary measures, because the Federal Reserve created various emergency facilities to purchase corporate debt and they did. Not only did the Fed purchase corporate debt on the secondary market, they also purchased it directly from the companies themselves in the primary market. Many of these companies were far from being junk rated as some were the largest firms in the world. So not only did the Fed purchase US corporate debt, but also foreign corporate debt!

By undertaking such measures, the Fed also sent the signal to the markets that they will be there to cushion and even perhaps prevent, any sort of further sell-off in the corporate debt market. What this then translates into is comfort and confidence of investors to get back into the game because they believe they have an insurance policy from the Fed. That is to say that should corporate bonds sell-off again, the Fed will purchase them and make the investors whole or at least lessen their losses. This goes completely against the Fed’s charter and any semblance of free-market functioning. This also goes against logic, because it can be argued that this economic lockdown was worse than the GFC and many economic variables conclude as much. Thus junk bond yields should be much higher. However, they are not due to the centrally planned actions undertaken by the Federal Reserve.

All of this has thus led to junk bond yields being at record lows. Should this downward trend continue in concert with rising US government debt yields, they may very well converge, although not likely. At this juncture there will be no denying that Uncle Sam’s debt is junk. It is important to stress that the Treasury market and corporate debt markets, along with others, are being greatly manipulated due to these policies. This in turn creates great distortionary effects and one of the biggest and most problematic is the mispricing of risk. In essence, without such policy interference, yields on Treasuries and corporate debt would likely be much higher. Furthermore, the spread in yields is tightening even as we have Fitch Ratings issuing a note forecasting a wave of bankruptcies across 2021 and 2022 as fiscal and monetary measures are scaled back. So understand that we have added trillions of dollars to our national debt, our trade deficits are at record highs, and we are still going to have to contend with a countless number of bankruptcies and insolvencies. Then what was the purpose of all of this money spending, borrowing, and printing if we still have such economic devastation on the horizon? These actions, coupled with these yield spreads tightening, and several other data points are indicative of a system that is nearing exhaustion. Policymakers understand the extent of their Ponzi scheme better than anyone and thus we are witnessing one extreme policy after the next to keep it all afloat for as long as they can. But remember, they cannot keep it going forever, and the longer they do, the bigger the fall and negative consequences. Abuses of power and billions and trillions of dollars are stolen right in front of our faces, and nothing is done about it to stop this madness. We need to wake up and we need to wake up now! Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #USA #FoodPrices #Liberty #Protests #Revolution #EndTheFed #Leadership #bananarepublic #FireCongress #JunkBonds

Ep. 569 – US Taxpayers Bailout The World

The Kapital News

Ep. 569 - US Taxpayers Bailout The World

00:00 / 00:33:29

Whether it is the trillions upon trillions of dollars that are being spent by Uncle Sam and printed by the Federal Reserve, or the $650 billion that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, just gave to the IMF, one thing is certain, and that is the American taxpayer is paying the bill. Now the US taxpayer is not the only group that will be feeling the consequences of such reckless policy. Instead it will be millions, if not billions of people the world over. They will feel the effects via inflation. Many poorer and middle-income nations are already contending with the destructive nature of inflation. Most notably for these countries is the price of food, energy, medicines, and other living necessities. Such cost increases are in turn leading to political and social unrest. This trend is likely to continue. However, The Kapital News would like to note that there may be a delay as to when some of these protests and riots gather more steam and traction. This is potentially due to the $650 billion that was given to the IMF to assist such countries with their ailing and failing economies. They are on the verge of defaulting on their debts, which in turn would have caused further problems, thus creating a vicious-cycle for these countries, which would likely manifest itself with people protesting and rioting. The $650 billion, buys some time. Furthermore, with our reckless spending, is leading to record trade deficits. That is to say we are importing more than we are exporting at record levels. This signifies that our spending is leading to increasing production levels in other countries. If we were producing such goods, then we would not need to import them to such a degree. So understand simply, the US produces dollars, and the world is producing goods. How long will this continue?

The Kapital News has also been informing our audience of further fiscal policy measures amounting to trillions of dollars before 2021 even got started and prior to the election of now President, Joe Biden. It would not have made much of a difference as to whom is the President, as further spending was coming regardless. Nonetheless, the new infrastructure bill has gained some parliamentarian clearance to be passed, at least in part, via budget reconciliation. This is where a simple majority in the Senate, 51 votes, is enough to pass the legislation. In this instance, as was the case for the Nobody CARES Act 3.0 worth $1.9 trillion, VP Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote, assuming this falls on party lines. This determination by the Senate parliamentarian does not mean that this bill will pass quickly. There are a few Senate Democrats who are not huge fans of the current bill, and they also come from more conservative states. Therefore, it is very likely that these Senators will leverage this to gain extra funds to their states in order to look the other way with their objections and then ultimately pass the bill. When it is all said and done, trillions more in spending will be appropriated throughout the remainder of 2021 and perhaps beyond.

A recent report released by Fitch Ratings, one of the major corporate credit rating agencies within the United States, is issuing a warning with respect to bankruptcies. The agency rightly claims that the level of bankruptcies that occurred throughout 2020 was well below what would have been expected and historically experienced in past recessions. They also correctly note that this anomaly occurred due to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy actions that were implemented. However, Fitch remarks that once these fiscal and monetary supports are removed, forbearances and moratoriums lifted or scaled back, that “bankruptcies will rise, potentially significantly.” Their projections are for both 2021 and 2022. This is a very damning report and rebuke of said monetary and fiscal policies. What this in effect means, is exactly what The Kapital News has been saying since last year, and that is all of the trillions in spending, borrowing, and printing will have been only to kick the can down the road. In other words, nothing structural has been resolved. You may be able to print dollars, but you cannot print solvency. Most of the damage is believed to be experienced by small and medium sized firms, which will further the consolidation process by larger corporations. One of the direct results of extraordinary and reckless fiscal and monetary decisions, has been the “zombification” of the economy. At recent count, nearly 25 percent or 1-in-4 businesses in the US are classified as zombies. This is the economy of the living dead, and if Fitch Ratings is correct, then some of these zombies may be going out of business for good. There are still a ton of risks and headwinds staring us in the face and coming down the pike. Money printers and stimulus checks will not solve these problems. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Inflation #Debt #USA #Liberty #Leadership #FoodPrices #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Protests #Bubbles #Fraud

Ep. 568 – March Jobs Report

The Kapital News

Ep. 568 - March Jobs Report

00:00 / 00:37:13

The official unemployment rate now stands at 6.0 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The jobs reports was released last Friday, which is the standard schedule being that it was the first Friday of the month. Employment rose by some 916,000 jobs. The bulk no doubt is more of a reflection of lockdowns and restrictions being lifted as opposed to new economic and business growth. In short, it is people being called back to work. This is still a good thing generally speaking, however, The Kapital News has some serious concerns as it relates to the true economic damage that has been done, much of which is still hanging in the balance, and the fiscal and monetary policies that have solved nothing, but have filled a void for the time being. Economic growth is not generated via the printing press, but rather through savings, capital formation, investment, and productivity gains. Printed money is not a substitute for real economic growth and activity. These policies are extremely expensive, reckless, and dangerous.

Nonetheless, some of the biggest gains came from the leisure and hospitality sector, which put on a gain of 280,000. This sector was one of the hardest hit due to the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns and restrictions. It is fair to reason that such gains were witnessed last month since such restrictions have been lifted in part or in their entirety. Most other sectors also saw job gains. It is important to note that many of the macro data points with respect to the employment picture, were little changed from the previous month. This signals that structural unemployment and underemployment remains throughout the economy. This can of course reverse course to the positive, but until we see these numbers improve significantly, then it is a hard sell to say that this is a solid jobs report. There is a long way to go and their exists major headwinds. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #FoodPrices #Gold #Silver #Housing #Liberty #USA #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Protests

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