It has been over a year, but finally the initial jobless claims figure is below that witnessed during the depths of the GFC. In aggregate, regular state unemployment and PUA claims came in at a combined 599,000 for the week ending 1 May. The peak during the GFC was around 660,000. The prior combined figures for around an entire year stood north of 900,000 on a weekly basis! Regular state claims came in at 498,000 and the prior week was revised upward by 37,000 to stand at 590,000. The Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims came in at 101,000. In aggregate, amongst all forms of unemployment insurance, some 16.2 million Americans continued to file claims. This gives a de facto unemployment rate of 11.6 percent. The official unemployment rate is currently at 6 percent. The jobs report for the month of April will be released tomorrow by the BLS.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet stands at $7.81 trillion, which is a week-over-week increase of $30 billion, and is just shy of a new-all time high. The Fed remains committed to purchasing at least $120 billion of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities per month. This will take the balance sheet to around $8.5 trillion by the end of the year, and The Kapital News expects that number to be closer to $10 trillion. This policy of QE continues onward despite record high equity prices, record high housing prices, sky-rocketing commodity prices, rising food prices, et cetera. If the jobs report provides a strong number, then the Fed is going to find themselves to be trapped even more than what they currently are. How can they continue to justify their policies and interventions if everything is looking healthy? Of course things are not healthy. It is a smoke and mirror show provided to us via trillions in fiscal and monetary policies. But the Fed will never admit to this, so they will continue with some made up narrative to justify their reckless actions. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #Protests #FoodPrices #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Liberty #USA #Leadership #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Debt
More than several countries around the globe were protesting throughout 2019. In comes the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns and the protests are tampered down. However, the reasons for the protests were never truly dealt with and due to the negative fallout from the pandemic, many of these issues have actually gotten worse. So here we are in 2021, and many of these protests are once again taking shape.
Whether it is income inequality, tax hikes or the mention of tax increases, a raise in bus or metro fares, a decrease in governmental benefits, or political abuses of power, one thing is certain, people around the world are sick and tired of being sick and tired. The cost of living is increasing by the day and more and more people are spending larger portions of their incomes on the basic necessities to live. This is why it becomes laughable if not disrespectful for those who argue about a deflationary environment. People around the world are not protesting and rioting because the cost of living is so affordable – they are protesting because they cannot afford to live!
Furthermore, these types of protests and movements can prove contagious as they may inspire other people around the world to take to the streets in their respective countries. Cost of living increases, tax hikes, and political corruption are not unique to only a few countries, but rather most, if not all of them. Depending on the outcomes, some may be resolved peacefully, while others may turn violent. In the latter scenario, the global economy should be watchful of further supply-chain disruptions. A country at war with itself will produce fewer items and thus less to be offered on the global stage. The global economy is continuing to contend with supply-chain issues, and social strife will only add to these pressures and bottlenecks, which ironically will only serve to further increase prices. There is no easy way out of this mess, but it is encouraging to see people stand up for themselves, their families, and their countries. Major changes are needed, and let us pray that they take the form of liberty and free-market capitalism. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Protests #FoodPrices #Inflation #USA #Colombia #Peace #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Jobs #Housing #Fraud #Bubbles #Zombies #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Liberty #Leadership
Only a few months ago the average new home build cost an extra $24,000 due to the price increase of lumber alone. Fast-forward to today and now that increase is $36,000! That is an increase of 50 percent in only a few short months. And of course we are told constantly by our policymakers that there is no inflation. Do not believe your lying eyes is supposedly their message. Further, this is placing upward pressure on rents as well, and according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), monthly rent payments are likely to increase by $120 per month. So understand that Uncle Sam and company have been sending out stimulus checks over the last year. If your rent should increase by $120 per month, then that check simply went to covering this rent increase. However, it will not be able to cover all of the other price hikes that exist from A-Z.
As we continue to see upward pressure on prices, many major corporations have been issuing press releases to their customers indicating that they will be increasing their prices, if they have not done so already. It would also be prudent to not only pay attention to the price hikes, but also the volume of product. Is it the same weight or lesser? Is it the same count or fewer? With these prices increasing there are only a few things that can happen. For example, corporations can assume the price hikes, thus squeezing their margins; they can pass along the entire cost to their customers, thus increasing consumer prices yet also risk losing market share; or a combination of the two. However, whichever option is chosen by what company, one thing is certain and that is margins and savings will be squeezed. The markets are priced to perfection, as the saying goes and thus anything that strays from this narrative can have some serious negative consequences.
Some such negativity right now with the current state of housing is the likelihood of pricing out a generation of homebuyers. The demographic most negatively impacted right now is the Millennial generation. This cohort has to contend with purchasing record-high housing prices, equity prices, car prices, rents, student debt payments, and the lack of current and future opportunities. All while likely to be left with the responsibility of cleaning up this mess from a budgetary and governmental standpoint. This is the intersection of economics, politics, and social issues. The dam is about to burst globally because of these issues, and when it does, it will be epic! Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Housing #Lumber #Jobs #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Liberty #USA #Leadership #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Commodities
Evidently one does not need a job in order to receive a paycheck in the new America. As stated by President Biden yesterday evening, Americans should not have to choose between a job or a paycheck. So presumably, one can go to work and earn a paycheck, or one can simply decide that they would prefer to just receive a paycheck by doing nothing. It would have to be assumed that the government will be sending out the checks. This is beyond ridiculous, but this is what was said. As The Kapital News has been stating for the last couple of years and especially last year, with all of the stimulus checks that were sent out, was how the American people were being conditioned to accept money from the government. This is a trial run at universal basic income or UBI, which is part of modern monetary theory, or MMT. The overall belief is that money grows on trees, deficits and debts do not matter, and if inflation should ever be of concern, just raise taxes. A terribly flawed idea and it should not even be considered an idea – that is how bad it is. Nonetheless, many Americans have grown accustomed to and fond of these checks from the government, not realizing the true cost that awaits them on the other side. This will take the form of much higher prices, higher taxes, lower living standards, and the loss of opportunities.
Initial jobless claims came in at 553,000 for the week ending 24 April. The prior week was revised upward by 19,000 to now stand at 566,000. While the regular state unemployment number is now below the figures we saw during the depths of the GFC, when taken together with the federal program of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or PUA, which came in at 122k, in aggregate still keeps us above those GFC figures for over a year. While trending lower, there is still along way to go as prior to the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, claims were between 200-300k. In aggregate, some 16.6 million Americans continue to claim some form of unemployment insurance. This gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 11.9 percent, which is still about 2x as high as the official rate at 6.0 percent. Next Friday will be the release of the official jobs report for the month of April.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet retreated by $40 billion from last week’s all-time high and now stands at $7.78 trillion. The Fed remains committed to their QE policy of purchasing at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgaged-backed securities. This will take their balance sheet to around $8.5 trillion by the end of the year and The Kapital News is projecting it may be closer to $10 trillion. For perspective, the balance sheet was just shy of $900 billion prior to the GFC. Monetary measures of M1 and M2 were also released. These figures used to be updated weekly, but are now refreshed on a monthly basis. M1 and M2 both hit new all-time highs, at $18.68 trillion and $19.89 trillion, respectively. These were month-over-month increases of $280 billion and $250 billion, respectively. The ultimate narrative that matters is this one that pertains to central bank actions and the injections of liquidity into the system. Should markets continue to buy into it, then markets likely continue grinding higher. But should they cease to buy into it, or the system hits exhaustion, or an endogenous or exogenous event occurs, they it is likely game, set, and match for this decade plus long bull market.
Lastly, several active military officials in France are warning of a civil war breaking out in the country. The rush of immigrants into the country over recent years is one such reason cited by the officials, along with other government policies that they believe are leading to the downfall of the country. The French government will be dealing with these individuals via military council, but their message has already been heard. With all of the actions and policies that have been implemented by governments and central banks around the world, the global system has been materially weakened. This type of rhetoric, along with the global protests, riots, revolutions, civil wars, conflicts, and coups will only pick up steam from here. The true costs of all of these policies have yet to be fully felt and once they are, global flare ups will be the norm in countries large and small, weak and powerful. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #FoodPrices #Debt #Spending #bananarepublic #EndTheFed #FireCongress #Liberty #USA #Leadership #Bailouts #Protests
Low interest rates are fueling much more than just housing and zombie corporations, but earlier today housing data came across the wires. The Case-Shiller 20-city composite home price index saw an 11.9 percent year-over-year increase in the month of February. This reading is the highest since 2014. With respect to the national home price index, the year-over-year increase was also at 12 percent. This is the highest reading since 2006. It is interesting to note that the time period of reference is just prior to the GFC when the housing market peaked.
The Kapital News has been mentioning how the current environment is likely going to have to contend with a triple whammy or trifecta of serious economic and financial issues. For one, the trade wars, supply disruptions, and fiscal policy measures are highly reminiscent of the causes of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Secondly, there is a fascination and outright obsession with big tech names, SPACS, and cryptocurrencies, where the crowd claims that these assets can only experience price appreciation. Thus mirroring the Dot-com era. And lastly, with residential real estate prices moving as they have been over the prior year and likely to continue in this manner for at least the remainder of this year, will generate data points not seen since the peak of the housing bubble in 2006, which led to the GFC. So, it should be highly evident that risks abound and that such price appreciation across the spectrum of asset classes is due in large part because of low interest rates, fiscal policies, and monetary policies. All of which cannot last forever, so it begs the question, when will it let up, and when it does, what will the fallout look like?
Not only are low interest rates fueling asset prices higher, they are also creating new zombie corporations, as well as continuing to prop up existing zombies. If market forces were allowed to prevail, as opposed to distortionary interventions via the government and central bank, then these firms would have gone out of business and/or restructured. This would have been a net-positive for the long-term health of the economy. Yet due to such monetary and fiscal policies, these poorly managed companies were given a life-line, and it came in the form of easy money and cheap credit via low interest rates. The existence of these firms will stunt future growth and prosperity because these firms will have to allocate a disproportionate amount of their cash flows to servicing debt as opposed to capital expenditures, investments, and hiring. This is at complete odds with one of the dual mandates of the Federal Reserve and that is achieving full employment. Well how can full employment be achieved if a significant portion of US firms are classified as zombies? This figure is now nearing 25 percent! This is a question that needs to be asked and answered.
Lastly, because the worlds of economics, politics, and social issues are always intertwined, there exists risks and opportunities within any environment. However, given the current climate, it is reasonable to assume, and recent geopolitical events would indicate that there are more risks than there are opportunities. It is simply not logical to believe that a global debt crisis can be managed or solved by increasing the amount of debt into the system. This faulty logic along with the subsequent policies that are implemented, give rise to a lot of social movements, and increase the likelihood of global conflict. This conflict can be internal to countries or it can be between and amongst nations that can turn into war. Revolutions are fought on empty stomachs. And when one accounts for increasing food prices, commodities, and security threats, coupled with pandemic lockdowns, lack of future opportunities, and many people being priced out of various markets, then it is rather easy to connect the dots. The global system is extremely fragile right now on many fronts, and thus it will only take the slightest of internal or external shock(s) to bring it all down. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #FoodPrices #Protests #Revolution #USA #Liberty #EndTheFed #Leadership #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Peace
A discussion about the events that unfolded this week and a very busy week it was. The conclusion of the Derek Chauvin trial, the economic data that came across the wires, and the geopolitical tensions that are rising in all corners of the globe fill our time for today. The intersection of economics, politics, and social issues are coming to a boil globally and the end result is not likely going to be a pretty picture. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Justice #Truth #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Jobs #War #Peace #Liberty #Leadership #USA #bananarepublic #EndTheFed #FireCongress
For the second consecutive week, initial jobless claims came in under 600k to stand at 547,000 for the week ending 17 April. While this figure is below that which was witnessed during the depths of GFC, we cannot forget the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program that was created by the Federal government. This figure came in at 133,319, which means in aggregate, weekly claims were 680,000 – still higher than the GFC, yet trending lower, and that is good news. The prior week was revised higher by 10k to now stand at 586,000. In aggregate, across all forms of unemployment insurance, some 17.4 million Americans continue to claim benefits. This gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 12.5 percent, which is more than double the official unemployment rate of 6.0 percent.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet hit another all-time high and now stands at $7.82 trillion, which was a week-over-week increase of $27 billion. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities per month. This will take their balance sheet to at least $8.5 trillion by the end of the year, and The Kapital News is projecting that it will be closer to $10 trillion! For context, their balance sheet was just shy of $900 billion during the GFC. This is nearly a 10x increase in just a little over a decade! And do recall that when QE was announced that it was going to be temporary. This program is a couple of years away from applying for a driver’s license – so much for short-lived. It is important to note this because current Fed members are stating that inflation will only be transitory. The same people who said QE would be temporary are saying the same about inflation – see where we are going with this?
As The Kapital News has been mentioning since we have been online starting in 2019, is to get ready for tax hikes. We were running trillion dollar deficits prior to the pandemic, the subsequent lockdowns, and massive spending programs. It is basic math at the end of the day. We are all for cutting taxes, in fact, we want to see the income tax abolished, along with the Federal Reserve. However, if policymakers are going to cut taxes, then they need to cut spending as well. Only solving for half of the equation is asking for trouble – i.e. large deficits. These deficits bring about the hidden tax of inflation, and now because of the size of our deficits, tax increases are coming. It was only a matter of time, but now the Biden Administration is discussing raising taxes. Their first target is capital gains taxes in a show to target the rich, but make no mistake that they will also be broad-based when the dust settles. We are dealing with a $28.2 trillion national debt. We are on the path to spend nearly $8 trillion this year alone, which gives us a deficit of over $4 trillion! Our deficit alone is higher than all of the tax revenue that is brought in annually, which is currently around $3.5 trillion! How sustainable do you think this is? And unfortunately, there is not much to show for it. So it is another double whammy as usual as we have to contend with the inflation tax and an increase to direct taxation. It should also be stressed that confiscating the entire net worth of the country’s wealthiest individuals would only cover expenses for several months. Point being, we are in a lot of trouble and attempting to tax and spend our way out of it, is not the solution. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #Taxes #Debt #Spending #Gold #Silver #USA #Bailouts #Liberty #Leadership #Justice #Truth #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress
Initial jobless claims for regular state unemployment benefits finally came in below the levels seen during the depths of the GFC, with a number of 576,000 for the week ending 10 April. The prior week was revised upward by 25,000 to now stand at 769,000. However, it must also be understood that since the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, the Congress passed the Nobody CARES Act, which created the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program that allows people who would normally not qualify for regular state aid to file a claim. This number came in at 132,000, which in aggregate takes us north of 700,000 initial jobless claims. So still not entirely below the GFC levels, but trending that way and hopefully that continues. However, The Kapital News remains highly skeptical as printing, borrowing, and spending this money is not real economic growth or productivity. This means we have be living off of a temporary “high” from such fiscal and monetary measures that could lead to further economic deterioration.
Other economic news released today pertained to US retail sales, which came in well above market expectations with a print of 9.8 percent month-over-month. The prior month was revised downward to -2.7 percent. This data has been tracking very closely with the money handed out by the government. January saw a nice increase due to stimulus checks, February saw the drawdown referenced above, and March saw the big jump, most likely due to a combination of stimulus checks and tax refunds. Should this trend continue, then absent some further government money, retail sales will likely cool off. However, it should be noted that government money will be sent out to people with children. And it should be stressed that by government money, we mean US taxpayer money.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has hit a new all-time high to now stand at $7.79 trillion! A week-over-week increase of some $80 billion. The Fed remains committed to their QE policy of purchasing a minimum of $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed continues with such a policy with respect to MBS, despite housing prices at all-time highs. At a minimum, the balance sheet will likely hit $8.5 trillion by the end of the year, and could be closer to $10 trillion, should fiscal and monetary authorities take further action in the markets. For context, prior to the GFC, their balance sheet was around $900 billion.
Lastly, Chinese economic data coming across the wires shows GDP for Q1 year-over-year grew by 18.3 percent. Despite such a large increase, this was below market expectations that were closer to 19 percent. Further, Chinese residential real estate prices grew by 4.6 percent year-over-year. Earlier this year, Chinese regulators noted that their real estate market was likely in a bubble. This recent data appears to indicate that this continues to be the case. The regulators were also pointing fingers at the US and European economies, and stating that these economies were also in bubbles. Essentially setting the stage to blame the US and European nations should there be any weakness in the economy and/or financial system. With all of the fiscal and monetary actions that have been conducted throughout 2020 and continuing to today and beyond has placed the global economy on even shakier ground, thus making the global system that much more fragile and susceptible to shocks. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #USA #China #Liberty #Gold #Silver #Debt #Spending #Bailouts #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Fraud
Were we not just informed last Friday with the release of a “stellar” jobs report that the economy and namely the jobs market recovery was well underway? Well then how can we have another 744,000 Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week ending 3 April? Furthermore, you have to understand that this figure only represents regular state unemployment benefits. However, due to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns and restrictions, federal government programs were established to assist those who would not traditionally qualify for state benefits. So, taking into consideration such a program, known as Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or PUA, we see that nearly 152,000 Americans filed an initial claim for the week ending 3 April. This means in aggregate that nearly 900,000 Americans filed an initial claim last week! Talk about recovery, as this is now over one full year since such draconian measures have been implemented. Last week’s figure of 719,000 was revised upward to now stand at 728,000 for the week ending 27 March. In aggregate, across all unemployment programs, some 18.2 million Americans continue to file claims. This is little changed from the prior week, and gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 12.7 percent. This is more than double the official unemployment rate, which now rests at 6.0 percent.
In other news, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet sits at $7.708 trillion, which is a week-over-week increase of $20 billion and is just shy of hitting a new all-time high. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. They continue to purchase MBS despite the fact that housing prices are at all-time highs and continue to climb, even as lumber and other construction materials prices continue their ascent.
And lastly, major geopolitical risks are taking shape around the globe. Whether it is increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, Northern Ireland rioting against Brexit, how the US is involved in all of these areas, or leaders in Italy and Turkey doing some name-calling, one thing is certain, the globe is on very unstable ground. With so much taking place, it increases the likelihood of mistakes being made or it creates the perfect environment for a false-flag attack, which will then be used as justification for conflict or even war. And oh yes, the Middle East and Africa remain hot spots for conflict as well. And if enough people in poorer and middle-income nations does not constitute enough financial strife, add Canada to the mix. A new survey released indicates that 53 percent of Canadians are on the verge of insolvency as they are only $200 away from not being able to pay their monthly bills and debt obligations. This figure includes the 30 percent of Canadians who are already insolvent. And despite all of this or perhaps because of it, real estate prices in Canada continue to skyrocket, with many homes selling well above their asking price, site unseen! But remember, our fearless leaders inform us that there is NO inflation. What a joke. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #Geopolitics #Protests #Peace #USA #Liberty #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #China #Russia #Germany #Ukraine #Taiwan #Philippines #Italy #Turkey #Canada
Whether it is the trillions upon trillions of dollars that are being spent by Uncle Sam and printed by the Federal Reserve, or the $650 billion that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, just gave to the IMF, one thing is certain, and that is the American taxpayer is paying the bill. Now the US taxpayer is not the only group that will be feeling the consequences of such reckless policy. Instead it will be millions, if not billions of people the world over. They will feel the effects via inflation. Many poorer and middle-income nations are already contending with the destructive nature of inflation. Most notably for these countries is the price of food, energy, medicines, and other living necessities. Such cost increases are in turn leading to political and social unrest. This trend is likely to continue. However, The Kapital News would like to note that there may be a delay as to when some of these protests and riots gather more steam and traction. This is potentially due to the $650 billion that was given to the IMF to assist such countries with their ailing and failing economies. They are on the verge of defaulting on their debts, which in turn would have caused further problems, thus creating a vicious-cycle for these countries, which would likely manifest itself with people protesting and rioting. The $650 billion, buys some time. Furthermore, with our reckless spending, is leading to record trade deficits. That is to say we are importing more than we are exporting at record levels. This signifies that our spending is leading to increasing production levels in other countries. If we were producing such goods, then we would not need to import them to such a degree. So understand simply, the US produces dollars, and the world is producing goods. How long will this continue?
The Kapital News has also been informing our audience of further fiscal policy measures amounting to trillions of dollars before 2021 even got started and prior to the election of now President, Joe Biden. It would not have made much of a difference as to whom is the President, as further spending was coming regardless. Nonetheless, the new infrastructure bill has gained some parliamentarian clearance to be passed, at least in part, via budget reconciliation. This is where a simple majority in the Senate, 51 votes, is enough to pass the legislation. In this instance, as was the case for the Nobody CARES Act 3.0 worth $1.9 trillion, VP Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote, assuming this falls on party lines. This determination by the Senate parliamentarian does not mean that this bill will pass quickly. There are a few Senate Democrats who are not huge fans of the current bill, and they also come from more conservative states. Therefore, it is very likely that these Senators will leverage this to gain extra funds to their states in order to look the other way with their objections and then ultimately pass the bill. When it is all said and done, trillions more in spending will be appropriated throughout the remainder of 2021 and perhaps beyond.
A recent report released by Fitch Ratings, one of the major corporate credit rating agencies within the United States, is issuing a warning with respect to bankruptcies. The agency rightly claims that the level of bankruptcies that occurred throughout 2020 was well below what would have been expected and historically experienced in past recessions. They also correctly note that this anomaly occurred due to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy actions that were implemented. However, Fitch remarks that once these fiscal and monetary supports are removed, forbearances and moratoriums lifted or scaled back, that “bankruptcies will rise, potentially significantly.” Their projections are for both 2021 and 2022. This is a very damning report and rebuke of said monetary and fiscal policies. What this in effect means, is exactly what The Kapital News has been saying since last year, and that is all of the trillions in spending, borrowing, and printing will have been only to kick the can down the road. In other words, nothing structural has been resolved. You may be able to print dollars, but you cannot print solvency. Most of the damage is believed to be experienced by small and medium sized firms, which will further the consolidation process by larger corporations. One of the direct results of extraordinary and reckless fiscal and monetary decisions, has been the “zombification” of the economy. At recent count, nearly 25 percent or 1-in-4 businesses in the US are classified as zombies. This is the economy of the living dead, and if Fitch Ratings is correct, then some of these zombies may be going out of business for good. There are still a ton of risks and headwinds staring us in the face and coming down the pike. Money printers and stimulus checks will not solve these problems. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Inflation #Debt #USA #Liberty #Leadership #FoodPrices #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Protests #Bubbles #Fraud
