Tag: Money

Ep. 555 – Global Food Prices Rising

The Kapital News

Ep. 555 - Global Food Prices Rising

00:00 / 00:30:36

Revolutions are fought on empty stomachs and with global food prices hitting a six-year high, only serves to increase the likelihood of further protests, riots, wars, and revolutions. This is especially true for the poorest of nations as food is so crucially important, scarce, and insecure to begin with. From supply-chain disruptions due to the pandemic, to volatile weather that has harmed production, to inflationary policies from governments and central bankers, a triple-whammy has been released and spares no one in its path.

The Kapital News has been discussing the interconnectedness of economics, politics, and society since we have been online – in fact, this is the purpose and mission of The Kapital News – to educate our audience on these connections by using the news of the day as real-world case studies. It is the weakest link of the chain that breaks first and such is the case with countries. We have unfortunately been seeing these poorer nations crumble one after the next due to external and internal pressures. However, there are common traits amongst them, such as, high levels of debt, political corruption, and high levels of inflation. All of these forces combined, in addition to several others, is a recipe for instability at best, and disaster at worst.

Some countries may be able to withstand some of these pressures and find solutions – we hope this happens. However, if history is any guide, chances are that the majority of nations will resort to protests, riots, wars, and revolutions. If such actions do occur, then we can hope that things are made better once the dust settles. But hope is not a strategy and time is of the essence. The globe was awash in protests and riots prior to the pandemic and it already appears in early 2021 that they are reigniting and gaining momentum. A political sea change is underway and the months and years ahead will try our institutions, constitutions, and humanity like never before. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #FoodPrices #Inflation #Protests #Riots #USA #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #Debt #Yields #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Liberty

Ep. 553 – Markets Rally, $1.9T Signed, & Jobless Up

The Kapital News

Ep. 553 - Markets Rally, $1.9T Signed, & Jobless Up

00:00 / 00:26:08

The $1.9 trillion spending bill was signed today by President Biden, even though it was expected to be signed on Friday. The White House claims that checks/direct deposits may begin to go out as early as this weekend. Meanwhile on Wall Street, the major indexes made all-time highs, apparently happy to see another $2 trillion that we do not have being borrowed, printed, and thrown into the system. However, this sort rally of calls into question the recent narrative of investors and traders rotating out of tech names and growth stocks and into value plays, because tech stocks rallied big during the trading session. Again, we note how this is one of the shortest rotations ever. Of course we also argue that this is and was a bogus narrative to begin with. The real narrative is all about liquidity. So long as this relationship remains positive, meaning more liquidity equals higher equity prices, then this will continue. However, nothing lasts forever and once this relationship breaks, and it will, it will be utterly devastating.

In other news, the initial jobless claims report was released today, and another 712,000 Americans filed an initial claim for the week ending 6 March. The prior week’s figure was revised higher by 9,000 to now stand at 754,000. These numbers still remain well above the numbers seen during the GFC, which saw 650,000 for a couple of weeks. As we are now in the second week of March, this means we have been experiencing initial jobless claims worse than the depths of the GFC for one full year! All persons claiming some form of unemployment insurance for the week ending 20 February, stands at 20.1 million. This represents a week-over-week increase of nearly 2.1 million and gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 14 percent. This is more than double the official unemployment rate at 6.2 percent and 40 percent higher than what the Federal Reserve claims is the real unemployment rate, which is closer to 10 percent. Any way you want to look at it, this is not a good picture. All of this structural unemployment and underemployment is occurring while the country spends and has spent several trillions of dollars. So it begs the question, where is all the money going? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Debt #Spending #USA #Liberty #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress

Ep. 552 – Inflation for February

The Kapital News

Ep. 552 - Inflation for February

00:00 / 00:22:49

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, released their consumer price index summary for the month of February this morning. In today’s podcast we take the time to read through some of the material. It is not so much the official numbers that were reported that we are focused on, but rather using this report as a benchmark. The month of February takes us to around the one year anniversary of lockdowns and restrictions. This also means that this is near the one year anniversary of the Nobody CARES Act, and several months into other spending measures that were passed last year. It also designates the last full month prior to the passage of the $1.9 trillion spending bill that made its way through Congress earlier this afternoon. The bill is expected to be signed by President Biden on Friday. However, the President is supposed to give remarks tomorrow on the next phase of the pandemic recovery. The Kapital News has been saying for months that these spending measures are just getting started. Nonetheless, the February inflation report is discussed today so we can use this report to perhaps provide us with some context and perspective as we make our way through 2021 and into 2022. All of this spending, borrowing, and printing is inflationary by definition. The follow through questions to ask is where will these inflationary pressures be experienced, do what degree, and its duration. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Debt #USA #Liberty #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #Protests #Leadership

Ep. 548 – February Jobs Report

The Kapital News

Ep. 548 - February Jobs Report

00:00 / 00:33:38

For the month of February, employment rose by 379,000 well higher than market expectations. The official unemployment rate now stands at 6.2 percent, little changed from January. Most of these gains were in the leisure and hospitality sectors. In fact, nearly 3/4 of the gains came from restaurant and bar workers. Of course it is tough to classify these jobs as “gains,” as they are more realistically just call backs from being laid off due to the pandemic restrictions. Such gains are likely unsustainable in this area because so many small businesses have closed for good. Therefore, the places of employment are no longer available to readily employ the millions that remain out of work. Furthermore, those bars and restaurants that remain open will gain some market share. However, they will likely remain hesitant to expand their operations due to the uncertainties that exist, as well as limited access to capital to finance such expansions. Also, as commodity prices continue to rise, it is likely that dining out will become more expensive as well. There is no free lunch, even with all of the money printing. Especially because of the money printing. Revisions for the months of December and January combined, result in an additional 38,000 jobs than was previously reported.

In some other news, Q4 2020 data for productivity shows a decline of 4.2 percent, and unit labor costs increased by 6 percent (annual rates). This is the exact opposite of what we want to witness. However, with people not working, then how is productivity to truly increase? This becomes a double whammy of lower productivity and higher costs. If we had higher levels of productivity, then this would likely result in costs dropping. The US trade deficit widened in January. And net exports of goods and services hit a near record low of -$804 billion. The only reading worse than this was prior to the GFC, which stood at -$805 billion. The US has to contend with a very serious problem with respect to its dual deficits of fiscal and trade. Both measures are further evidence of a weakening economy, not a strengthening one. This need not be the case, but when such policies are enacted, this is the result. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. Happy Birthday YiaYia! #Economy #Debt #Jobs #Inflation #Markets #Bonds #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #EndTheFed #Liberty #USA #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Bailouts #Protests #Leadership

Ep. 547 – Jobless Up + Yields Up

The Kapital News

Ep. 547 - Jobless Up + Yields Up

00:00 / 00:26:26

Initial jobless claims continue to remain stubbornly high, as 745,000 initial claims were filed for the week ending 27 February. Last week’s figure saw an upward revision of 6,000 filers, to now stand at 736,000. Since restrictions have been in place, claims have been well above those witnessed during the depths of the GFC, which were around 650,000 for a couple of weeks. We are now at the one year anniversary of lockdowns and this is the type of economic carnage that still exists. For all Americans that continue to claim some form of unemployment insurance, now rests at 18 million. Giving us a de facto unemployment rate of around 12.7 percent. This is double the official rate that stands at 6.3 percent. The official jobs report for February will be released tomorrow morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Other items discussed today were the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and M1 and M2 money stock. All monetary measures are at or near all-time highs. This is expected to remain the trend on a weekly basis as the Fed remains committed to purchasing $120 billion worth of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities on a monthly basis. This alone should elevate their balance sheet to north of $8.5 trillion, which is 10x higher than where it was prior to the GFC! The Kapital News projects that the balance sheet will be closer to, if not above, $10 trillion by the end of the year, as Congress continues to pass large-scale spending measures.

Earlier today the Chairman of the Fed, Jay Powell, made some remarks that apparently spooked the markets and caused a sell-off on the major indexes. The Chairman apparently believes that inflation will run hot for a short period of time, but will only be transitory, and that the Fed is monitoring closely, and has the tools to contain inflation. This led to yields on Treasuries moving higher, which was cause for concern last week and earlier this week, and has been placing downward pressure on global equities. The same upward effect was seen in the dollar index, as it now trades near levels not seen since last Nov/Dec. Commodities, however, is more of a mixed bag for the time being, with oil prices climbing higher, while precious metals continued their downward trend. In short, the markets are broken and heavily manipulated. All that is left are the narratives that central bankers can tell. The major question is, will markets continue to buy it? If yes, then equity and bond prices may continue higher. If no, then this may be the beginning of the end of central bank control over markets. If this is the case, then it could be a scenario of, look out below. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #Debt #Spending #Gold #Silver #USA #Liberty #Commodities #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Markets #Leadership

Ep. 545 – Market Bubble Blame Game

The Kapital News

Ep. 545 - Market Bubble Blame Game

00:00 / 00:31:22

Top Chinese financial regulators are sounding the alarm bells with financial bubbles that exist globally. The focus of the statement was on the disconnect between the underlying economies in the USA and throughout Europe and their respective financial markets. This is of course true, as we are observing equity prices at or near all-time highs on a price basis and across virtually all valuation metrics. The only comparable points would take us to 1929, 1937, 2000, and 2007/8 – and things did not end well. The Chinese regulators nonetheless did look internally to their real estate markets and mentioned the frothiness is of concern. Noting how many people are buying real estate and homes not for the purpose of living, but rather as a form of speculation. Has the global economy not learned anything from the housing crisis that is only a decade old?

What further makes these statements interesting, is how the regulators warned of potential spillover effects from the US and European bubbles impacting the Chinese economy. The Kapital News believes this is the first shot across the bow and the start of a narrative that the Chinese want to begin building so that they can blame others for their own missteps and failures, if and when their economy and financial markets turn downward. There is no question that many financial markets are greatly disconnected from their respective economies, and China is guilty of this as well. Now, it will be interesting to see how other regulators and central bankers in the US and Europe respond to these statements. True to form, no policymaker wants to be held responsible for their actions and policies, and it is always easier to play the blame game and say it is the irresponsibility of another country.

These policymakers know that time is running out and they are low on ammunition. And there is no question that due to the interconnectedness of the global economy that there will be spillover effects from one country to the next. This is already being experienced in weaker economies around the world. It is always the weakest links that break first. And a couple or few countries experiencing difficulty may not be of significant concern for the rest of the world, but as these weaknesses persist and travel to other countries, then momentum starts to build. It is this momentum and its size and scope that can begin to negatively impact larger economies. When this takes root, coupled with market forces moving global debt yields higher, is when we will know that we are in the final chapters of this massive central bank economic money printing experiment. We are there. And it will not end well. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #USA #China #Debt #Liberty #EndTheFed #Infrstaructure #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Bonds #Markets #bananarepublic #Leadership

Ep. 544 – Insanity x A Trillion

The Kapital News

Ep. 544 - Insanity x A Trillion

00:00 / 00:34:05

With the $1.9 trillion monstrosity set to be passed by Congress, just in time as the benefits are about to expire from the Nobody CARES Act 2.0 passed last December, we continue to witness the insanity of our politicians and the weakness of our economy. With several hundred thousand Americans continuing to file weekly initial jobless claims to the rising prices across commodities, one thing is certain – we are far from a real economic recovery. So in order to mask this reality, politicians are attempting to do what politicians do best, and that is spend money that we do not have and to kick the can down the road. These policies have proven and will continue to prove destructive. We are in the land of trillions and there is no end in sight as to how much more spending will be coming down the pike. This measure continues to pertain to the pandemic (or so we are told). What is next on the block is likely infrastructure spending, and measures dealing with the environment and healthcare. We are just getting started. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Jobs #Bailouts #USA #Liberty #Spending #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #Markets #Leadership

Ep. 542 – Game Stop The System

The Kapital News

Ep. 542 - Game Stop The System

00:00 / 00:31:27

Just when you thought the GameStop stock frenzy was over, the markets today give us a gain of nearly 104 percent in shares of the company. After hours trading is up another 83 percent to trade at $168/share. The concern of course is that this will most certainly lead to more retail and speculative traders coming into the stock in order to chase the price action. Have people not learned their lessons from last time? It was only a month ago. Many novice traders thought the stock price could only go up and wanted their hands on the shares at any price, even as the stock traded in the 300s, then 400s, per share. Then in short order, the price collapsed back to $40/share. A year ago, shares of the company were trading in the single digits.

These markets are broken and this type of action should serve as solid evidence that something is very much amiss. These types of events lend themselves for some people to attempt to take advantage of the situation by preying on the ignorance and lack of experience of others. Markets in their best and true form are supposed to be a win-win. Markets are here to provide people and businesses with the goods and services they need and want, thus benefiting the end-users that consume them, and the businesses that produce such goods or offer such services. But now, due to the asinine and reckless fiscal and monetary policies that have been implemented, people believe that money grows on trees and that stocks can only go up. This is extremely dangerous and the day of reckoning will be devastating when prices reflect the true underlying economy. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #GameStop #Bubbles #Markets #Liberty #USA #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Fraud

Ep. 541 – These Markets Are A Joke

The Kapital News

Ep. 541 - These Markets Are A Joke

00:00 / 00:33:17

Large intraday trading swings may likely become the new normal as we continue through this asinine economic experiment. Or perhaps these are the foreshocks to something much larger awaiting us over the horizon. Such volatility of course is not new, as this is something that has been witnessed from time to time over the last few years. But today was clearly a case in point. The Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 4 percent earlier in the day’s trading session, only to close down 0.5 percent. Much of the bounce-back came off of the statements made this morning by Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, as he was giving testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

Continuing with the same narrative of remaining accommodative for as long as it takes, evidently is what the markets wanted to hear to cause a frenzy of late-day buying. The question is of course, how much longer can this go on before the system reaches exhaustion? If bond yields are any indicator, then we may not be too far from that point. Powell remains committed to the Fed’s policy of purchasing $120 billion per month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities through the remainder of the year. This will take their balance sheet to levels around $8.5 trillion. Questions and comments were made about inflation as well, and the Fed Chair nonchalantly swept them under the rug as not of major concern and that if inflation does occur that there will be plenty of time to contend with it and that the Fed has the requisite tools to manage it properly. Talk about a bunch of hogwash. Inflation is here, it has been here, and it is only going to get worse as we make our way through this decade. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #USA #EndTheFed #Revolution #Liberty #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Recession #Depression #Fraud #Leadership

Ep. 540 – Yield Curve Control Coming?

The Kapital News

Ep. 540 - Yield Curve Control Coming?

00:00 / 00:30:22

With yields moving noticeably higher on the US 10 year note and 30 year bond, we can be certain that this is gaining the attention of central bankers, the Treasury Department, and investors. While some will and do argue that this increase in yields is a sign of future growth expectations, The Kapital News believes that the bulk of the increase is due to inflationary expectations. Utilizing the printing press as the cure for everything will only get an economy so far. You can print money, but you cannot print jobs, and you cannot print production. Given these yield increases and the volume of speeches, interviews, and conferences of Federal Reserve and Treasury Department officials, signals to us that they know they are running out of ammunition and runway. This is why we continue to hear the aggressive lobbying to pass the $1.9 trillion in additional spending. Such fiscal policy, financed via monetary policy will buy some more time – at least that is the hope. If yields continue their ascent, this may very well be the point of no-return and where the markets are saying enough is enough. All systems have a breaking point. There is only so much a person can drink and eat, or how far he can run before exhaustion. The same holds true for an economy or any system – there are limits. The global economic experiment of QE has been going on for over a decade and is likely nearing its limits, if it has not already hit such constraints. And understand that it will likely take a smaller yield to prick the markets’ bubble due to the fragility of the system.

What is left, is for policymakers to continue onward with their narrative. And this story can and will change with the wind if that is what is needed to calm the markets. So as yields continue their climb, it would not be surprising to hear a lot more Fed officials and others discussing the possibility of yield curve control. The yield curve is simply the graphical plot of Treasuries of differing maturities and connecting those dots, thus drawing a curve. The attempt to control it, is already something that the Fed and other central banks do. However, they do not openly say that is what they are doing. So if they come out and announce such a policy, then this allows for their narrative to stay alive for a little longer until it is on to something else. Despite how powerful central banks and governments are, they are not bigger nor more powerful than the markets. When the markets no longer buy these narratives, then it is look out below because there will be no policy measure to combat the coming correction. Policymakers are running out of time and they know it. It is now all about the narrative and keeping hope alive and hope is not a good strategy. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Fraud #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Commodities #USA #Liberty #Recession #Depression #Bailouts #FireCongress #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #Leadership

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