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Ep. 575 – Initial Claims Below GFC, Gov’t Fuels Retail
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 575 - Initial Claims Below GFC, Gov't Fuels Retail
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Initial jobless claims for regular state unemployment benefits finally came in below the levels seen during the depths of the GFC, with a number of 576,000 for the week ending 10 April. The prior week was revised upward by 25,000 to now stand at 769,000. However, it must also be understood that since the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, the Congress passed the Nobody CARES Act, which created the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program that allows people who would normally not qualify for regular state aid to file a claim. This number came in at 132,000, which in aggregate takes us north of 700,000 initial jobless claims. So still not entirely below the GFC levels, but trending that way and hopefully that continues. However, The Kapital News remains highly skeptical as printing, borrowing, and spending this money is not real economic growth or productivity. This means we have be living off of a temporary “high” from such fiscal and monetary measures that could lead to further economic deterioration.

Other economic news released today pertained to US retail sales, which came in well above market expectations with a print of 9.8 percent month-over-month. The prior month was revised downward to -2.7 percent. This data has been tracking very closely with the money handed out by the government. January saw a nice increase due to stimulus checks, February saw the drawdown referenced above, and March saw the big jump, most likely due to a combination of stimulus checks and tax refunds. Should this trend continue, then absent some further government money, retail sales will likely cool off. However, it should be noted that government money will be sent out to people with children. And it should be stressed that by government money, we mean US taxpayer money.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has hit a new all-time high to now stand at $7.79 trillion! A week-over-week increase of some $80 billion. The Fed remains committed to their QE policy of purchasing a minimum of $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed continues with such a policy with respect to MBS, despite housing prices at all-time highs. At a minimum, the balance sheet will likely hit $8.5 trillion by the end of the year, and could be closer to $10 trillion, should fiscal and monetary authorities take further action in the markets. For context, prior to the GFC, their balance sheet was around $900 billion.

Lastly, Chinese economic data coming across the wires shows GDP for Q1 year-over-year grew by 18.3 percent. Despite such a large increase, this was below market expectations that were closer to 19 percent. Further, Chinese residential real estate prices grew by 4.6 percent year-over-year. Earlier this year, Chinese regulators noted that their real estate market was likely in a bubble. This recent data appears to indicate that this continues to be the case. The regulators were also pointing fingers at the US and European economies, and stating that these economies were also in bubbles. Essentially setting the stage to blame the US and European nations should there be any weakness in the economy and/or financial system. With all of the fiscal and monetary actions that have been conducted throughout 2020 and continuing to today and beyond has placed the global economy on even shakier ground, thus making the global system that much more fragile and susceptible to shocks. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #USA #China #Liberty #Gold #Silver #Debt #Spending #Bailouts #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Fraud

Ep. 571 – Another 750,000 Jobs Bite The Dust
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 571 - Another 750,000 Jobs Bite The Dust
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Were we not just informed last Friday with the release of a “stellar” jobs report that the economy and namely the jobs market recovery was well underway? Well then how can we have another 744,000 Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week ending 3 April? Furthermore, you have to understand that this figure only represents regular state unemployment benefits. However, due to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns and restrictions, federal government programs were established to assist those who would not traditionally qualify for state benefits. So, taking into consideration such a program, known as Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or PUA, we see that nearly 152,000 Americans filed an initial claim for the week ending 3 April. This means in aggregate that nearly 900,000 Americans filed an initial claim last week! Talk about recovery, as this is now over one full year since such draconian measures have been implemented. Last week’s figure of 719,000 was revised upward to now stand at 728,000 for the week ending 27 March. In aggregate, across all unemployment programs, some 18.2 million Americans continue to file claims. This is little changed from the prior week, and gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 12.7 percent. This is more than double the official unemployment rate, which now rests at 6.0 percent.

In other news, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet sits at $7.708 trillion, which is a week-over-week increase of $20 billion and is just shy of hitting a new all-time high. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. They continue to purchase MBS despite the fact that housing prices are at all-time highs and continue to climb, even as lumber and other construction materials prices continue their ascent.

And lastly, major geopolitical risks are taking shape around the globe. Whether it is increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, Northern Ireland rioting against Brexit, how the US is involved in all of these areas, or leaders in Italy and Turkey doing some name-calling, one thing is certain, the globe is on very unstable ground. With so much taking place, it increases the likelihood of mistakes being made or it creates the perfect environment for a false-flag attack, which will then be used as justification for conflict or even war. And oh yes, the Middle East and Africa remain hot spots for conflict as well. And if enough people in poorer and middle-income nations does not constitute enough financial strife, add Canada to the mix. A new survey released indicates that 53 percent of Canadians are on the verge of insolvency as they are only $200 away from not being able to pay their monthly bills and debt obligations. This figure includes the 30 percent of Canadians who are already insolvent. And despite all of this or perhaps because of it, real estate prices in Canada continue to skyrocket, with many homes selling well above their asking price, site unseen! But remember, our fearless leaders inform us that there is NO inflation. What a joke. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #Geopolitics #Protests #Peace #USA #Liberty #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #China #Russia #Germany #Ukraine #Taiwan #Philippines #Italy #Turkey #Canada

Ep. 569 – US Taxpayers Bailout The World
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 569 - US Taxpayers Bailout The World
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Whether it is the trillions upon trillions of dollars that are being spent by Uncle Sam and printed by the Federal Reserve, or the $650 billion that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, just gave to the IMF, one thing is certain, and that is the American taxpayer is paying the bill. Now the US taxpayer is not the only group that will be feeling the consequences of such reckless policy. Instead it will be millions, if not billions of people the world over. They will feel the effects via inflation. Many poorer and middle-income nations are already contending with the destructive nature of inflation. Most notably for these countries is the price of food, energy, medicines, and other living necessities. Such cost increases are in turn leading to political and social unrest. This trend is likely to continue. However, The Kapital News would like to note that there may be a delay as to when some of these protests and riots gather more steam and traction. This is potentially due to the $650 billion that was given to the IMF to assist such countries with their ailing and failing economies. They are on the verge of defaulting on their debts, which in turn would have caused further problems, thus creating a vicious-cycle for these countries, which would likely manifest itself with people protesting and rioting. The $650 billion, buys some time. Furthermore, with our reckless spending, is leading to record trade deficits. That is to say we are importing more than we are exporting at record levels. This signifies that our spending is leading to increasing production levels in other countries. If we were producing such goods, then we would not need to import them to such a degree. So understand simply, the US produces dollars, and the world is producing goods. How long will this continue?

The Kapital News has also been informing our audience of further fiscal policy measures amounting to trillions of dollars before 2021 even got started and prior to the election of now President, Joe Biden. It would not have made much of a difference as to whom is the President, as further spending was coming regardless. Nonetheless, the new infrastructure bill has gained some parliamentarian clearance to be passed, at least in part, via budget reconciliation. This is where a simple majority in the Senate, 51 votes, is enough to pass the legislation. In this instance, as was the case for the Nobody CARES Act 3.0 worth $1.9 trillion, VP Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaking vote, assuming this falls on party lines. This determination by the Senate parliamentarian does not mean that this bill will pass quickly. There are a few Senate Democrats who are not huge fans of the current bill, and they also come from more conservative states. Therefore, it is very likely that these Senators will leverage this to gain extra funds to their states in order to look the other way with their objections and then ultimately pass the bill. When it is all said and done, trillions more in spending will be appropriated throughout the remainder of 2021 and perhaps beyond.

A recent report released by Fitch Ratings, one of the major corporate credit rating agencies within the United States, is issuing a warning with respect to bankruptcies. The agency rightly claims that the level of bankruptcies that occurred throughout 2020 was well below what would have been expected and historically experienced in past recessions. They also correctly note that this anomaly occurred due to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy actions that were implemented. However, Fitch remarks that once these fiscal and monetary supports are removed, forbearances and moratoriums lifted or scaled back, that “bankruptcies will rise, potentially significantly.” Their projections are for both 2021 and 2022. This is a very damning report and rebuke of said monetary and fiscal policies. What this in effect means, is exactly what The Kapital News has been saying since last year, and that is all of the trillions in spending, borrowing, and printing will have been only to kick the can down the road. In other words, nothing structural has been resolved. You may be able to print dollars, but you cannot print solvency. Most of the damage is believed to be experienced by small and medium sized firms, which will further the consolidation process by larger corporations. One of the direct results of extraordinary and reckless fiscal and monetary decisions, has been the “zombification” of the economy. At recent count, nearly 25 percent or 1-in-4 businesses in the US are classified as zombies. This is the economy of the living dead, and if Fitch Ratings is correct, then some of these zombies may be going out of business for good. There are still a ton of risks and headwinds staring us in the face and coming down the pike. Money printers and stimulus checks will not solve these problems. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Inflation #Debt #USA #Liberty #Leadership #FoodPrices #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Protests #Bubbles #Fraud

Ep. 568 – March Jobs Report
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 568 - March Jobs Report
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The official unemployment rate now stands at 6.0 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The jobs reports was released last Friday, which is the standard schedule being that it was the first Friday of the month. Employment rose by some 916,000 jobs. The bulk no doubt is more of a reflection of lockdowns and restrictions being lifted as opposed to new economic and business growth. In short, it is people being called back to work. This is still a good thing generally speaking, however, The Kapital News has some serious concerns as it relates to the true economic damage that has been done, much of which is still hanging in the balance, and the fiscal and monetary policies that have solved nothing, but have filled a void for the time being. Economic growth is not generated via the printing press, but rather through savings, capital formation, investment, and productivity gains. Printed money is not a substitute for real economic growth and activity. These policies are extremely expensive, reckless, and dangerous.

Nonetheless, some of the biggest gains came from the leisure and hospitality sector, which put on a gain of 280,000. This sector was one of the hardest hit due to the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns and restrictions. It is fair to reason that such gains were witnessed last month since such restrictions have been lifted in part or in their entirety. Most other sectors also saw job gains. It is important to note that many of the macro data points with respect to the employment picture, were little changed from the previous month. This signals that structural unemployment and underemployment remains throughout the economy. This can of course reverse course to the positive, but until we see these numbers improve significantly, then it is a hard sell to say that this is a solid jobs report. There is a long way to go and their exists major headwinds. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #FoodPrices #Gold #Silver #Housing #Liberty #USA #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Protests

Ep. 566 – Central Banks Taunt The Markets
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 566 - Central Banks Taunt The Markets
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If the incompetence of central bankers was not enough to deal with, now we have to contend with their arrogance. European Central Bank, ECB, President Christine Lagarde, remarked in a recent interview that central banks remain steadfast in achieving their goals and dared the markets to test their resolve. What is she talking about? Is the ECB President openly admitting that central bank policy and natural market forces are at odds with each other? If this is the case, which The Kapital News believes to be true, then Lagarde has just declared that equity and bond prices would be quite lower compared to current levels.

Of course this is the open secret about global monetary policy, yet no one dares to say it, especially not a central banker. Quite the contrary, as central bankers attempt to attribute equity and bond price gains to fiscal support or a more resilient global economy. Rarely, if ever, do central bankers want to stand in the center of the stage and take all the credit nor do they ever openly taunt the markets. Global equity prices are at their outrageous valuations, especially in the United States, because of the monetary measures that were undertaken since the pandemic and even prior. So it is a simple thought experiment to ask oneself the following, if such measures and liquidity were removed from the system, would equity and bond prices be at their current levels? The answers is a resounding, NO! Prices would be much lower and interest rates much higher. This is what needs to occur in order for markets to find fair value, for zombie corporations to be liquidated or restructured, and for all other malinvestments to be liquidated or restructured as well.

This will be a lengthy and painful process, but it is one that is needed and required in order to establish a solid foundation on which to build a sustainable future economy and society. But we will never hear this from central bankers or politicians. Instead they give us their lethal combination of incompetence and arrogance. And while the top 1 and 10 percent of the population see trillions of dollars added to their net worth in the midst of a pandemic, these same central bankers inform of us a growing wealth inequality problem. Yet they never seem willing or capable of placing the blame at their own feet for such inequality. This type of rhetoric from Lagarde and other central bankers is concerning to say the least. This is now open warfare between free-market capitalism and central planning. Let us hope for the sake of freedom, sound economics, individualism, and posterity that free-markets win the day. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #CentralBanks #Inflation #Markets #Debt #Protests #Riots #Liberty #USA #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Pandemic #Gold #Silver #Commodities

Ep. 560 – Nature, Trillions, & Social Unrest
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 560 - Nature, Trillions, & Social Unrest
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Volcanoes, floods, and printing presses, oh my! Just when you thought it was a relief to put 2020 in the rearview mirror, we now start to see that 2021 may end up in a similar fashion. Whether it is once in a millennia volcanic eruption (Iceland), or the worst flooding in 60 years (Australia), one thing is certain, nature is unpredictable and very powerful. It will not be a surprise to The Kapital News if nature should continue to throw us several curveballs throughout this year.

Onto the trillions! So you thought the Nobody CARES Act 3.0 that just passed with a price tag of $1.9 trillion was going to be the cherry on top, well guess again. The ink is barely dry on that spending bill and President Biden is allegedly about to propose further measures amounting to nearly $3 trillion. How many times have we said that they are just getting started? We know that we have lost count. It would be one thing to say that while it is reckless and irresponsible to spend like this, we could at least point to several major accomplishments that resulted from this spending – like infrastructure, better education results, improved health, less financial systemic risk, etc…However, we unfortunately cannot even do that. This continues to be one major bailout after the next with the taxpayer paying the bill. And the worst is yet to come in the form of higher inflation, lower living standards, and loss of opportunities. These trillions also have an impact on the housing market. The median US existing home price increased by 15.8 percent year-over-year and now stands at $313,000. People are simply being priced out of the market. The ensuing correction, just like its increase, will be epic.

Social unrest is unfortunately a near daily theme, but it is the reality of our time. The country of Turkey has been on our radar for months and has been discussed on occasion. Turkey is back in the news due to the recent firing of their central bank head. The nation is dealing with runaway inflation and recent actions undertaken by the central bank were attempting to contain it by increasing their benchmark interest rates. Apparently, President Erdogan was not too fond of this monetary maneuver and decided to oust the top banker. Markets did not like this action as Turkish stocks suffered their worst one day decline in eight years, as equities fell by nearly 10 percent. Furthermore, the Turkish Lira declined by over 9 percent. What makes Turkey an interesting situation is that they are a larger economy than say Lebanon or Venezuela, but that Turkey is also an important geopolitical player. Turkey is being wooed by both western and eastern nations, due to the size of their economy and geographical location. This is something to most definitely pay close attention to. As the economy weakens and is at the hands of a “strong man,” in President Erdogan, the environment is ripe for social unrest to occur. The weakest links of the global economy are breaking down and now those ripple effects are grabbing larger economies. This story and trend is likely to continue throughout this year and into 2022. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Protests #FoodPrices #USA #Turkey #China #Brazil #Liberty #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Revolution #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress

Ep. 558 – Market Losses + Job Losses
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 558 - Market Losses + Job Losses
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One day after the Federal Reserve gave the markets a pot of gold, it appears that it was just as quickly taken away. The major US indexes all closed in the red, with the tech heavy Nasdaq leading the way. This is also on the continuation of rising yields, with a focus on the US 10 year note, which hit levels above 1.7 percent during the trading session. With equity prices at or near all-time high valuations, rising yields and interest rates could pull the rug out from under this massive bubble. Recent history suggests that it can happen, as we witnessed such an episode in Q4 of 2018. This is why so much attention is being paid to rising global bond yields, and the rhetoric and actions of central bankers are being closely monitored. This in and of itself indicates how centrally planned the financial markets and economy have been – as the world, and trillions of dollars of financial assets await the words of only a handful of people. This is dangerous and will end in destruction.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending 13 March were 770,000, which remains over 100k higher than the figures we witnessed during the depths of the GFC. And this has been the case for one full year! The numbers from the prior week were revised upward by 13k and now stand at 725,000. In aggregate, there still remains 18.2 million Americans collecting some form of unemployment insurance. This gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 13 percent as opposed to the official rate at 6.2 per cent. And lastly, the Fed’s balance sheet has hit a new all-time high and now stands at $7.69 trillion. New highs are to be expected on a near weekly basis as the Fed remains committed to purchasing $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Inflation #FoodPrices #Protests #USA #Liberty #Leadership #Gold #Silver #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress

Ep. 556 – Stagflation + Social Unrest
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 556 - Stagflation + Social Unrest
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As we discussed global food prices hitting a six-year high during yesterday’s podcast, it proved good timing as a couple news articles were published today highlighting this situation in Nigeria and Lebanon. Both of these countries have been discussed at length for a while on the podcast, and these articles serve as further evidence as to what we have been monitoring.

It is a part of the larger narrative that The Kapital News is attempting to weave. One that links together economics, politics, and society. In this instance, we are analyzing how past and current policies are leading to social unrest, political instability, and economic weakness. Highlighting the protests and riots that were sweeping the globe during 2019, The Kapital News stressed the importance of paying attention to these events, analyzing their causes, and warning that such events would likely take place in developed markets, and even the United States. In time, we were proven correct. Now, with the pandemic seemingly making its way to the rear-view mirror, and no sound solutions being implemented during 2020, has caused many people around the world to once again take to the streets against their governments. This will be a common theme throughout 2021 and beyond until there are true structural changes.

Some countries may be able to traverse these rough waters without much chaos or violence. However, such countries will likely prove the exception and not the rule. This means that a lot of geopolitical risks have not been fully discounted into the markets, which are trading at or near all-time record high valuations. The pandemic has already caused severe supply chain disruptions that will likely continue throughout this year and into the next. However, should more countries take to the streets, then this will put further pressure on global supply chains and result in higher prices for major commodities, which will further strain the economic situation. This will be a vicious cycle until the system has been exhausted, which will leave millions if not billions of people negatively impacted. The globe is awash in trillions of dollars of new debt and with little to show for it. As inflationary effects start to make their way into real goods, these problems will no longer be able to be avoided. The monetary cat-and-mouse game will be over and market forces will take charge and lead the correction. There is no easy solution to what plagues us and these market forces will be brutal – even though they are what is needed.

Other items discussed today were economic data releases for US retail sales and industrial production. Also, the daily market performance wrap-up and a brief mention of the Federal Reserve concluding their FOMC policy meeting tomorrow. Global markets will be anxiously awaiting to hear what Chairman Jay Powell has to say – because we are a centrally controlled global economy. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Stagflation #Debt #Markets #Jobs #Protests #USA #Liberty #Gold #Silver #Revolution #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Bonds #FoodPrices

Ep. 555 – Global Food Prices Rising
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 555 - Global Food Prices Rising
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Revolutions are fought on empty stomachs and with global food prices hitting a six-year high, only serves to increase the likelihood of further protests, riots, wars, and revolutions. This is especially true for the poorest of nations as food is so crucially important, scarce, and insecure to begin with. From supply-chain disruptions due to the pandemic, to volatile weather that has harmed production, to inflationary policies from governments and central bankers, a triple-whammy has been released and spares no one in its path.

The Kapital News has been discussing the interconnectedness of economics, politics, and society since we have been online – in fact, this is the purpose and mission of The Kapital News – to educate our audience on these connections by using the news of the day as real-world case studies. It is the weakest link of the chain that breaks first and such is the case with countries. We have unfortunately been seeing these poorer nations crumble one after the next due to external and internal pressures. However, there are common traits amongst them, such as, high levels of debt, political corruption, and high levels of inflation. All of these forces combined, in addition to several others, is a recipe for instability at best, and disaster at worst.

Some countries may be able to withstand some of these pressures and find solutions – we hope this happens. However, if history is any guide, chances are that the majority of nations will resort to protests, riots, wars, and revolutions. If such actions do occur, then we can hope that things are made better once the dust settles. But hope is not a strategy and time is of the essence. The globe was awash in protests and riots prior to the pandemic and it already appears in early 2021 that they are reigniting and gaining momentum. A political sea change is underway and the months and years ahead will try our institutions, constitutions, and humanity like never before. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #FoodPrices #Inflation #Protests #Riots #USA #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #Debt #Yields #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Liberty

Ep. 550 – $1.9 Trillion Mayhem
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 550 - $1.9 Trillion Mayhem
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With the $1.9 trillion spending bill all but certain to pass through Congress this week and make it to President Biden’s desk, we wanted to take a moment to provide some context. It was only a little over a decade ago when we were in the midst of the Great Financial Crisis or GFC. It was here that Congress decided to pass the Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP. It had a price tag of $700 billion. According to those who drafted the legislation and came up with the number, apparently this was large enough to save the US financial system, and thus the US economy. Fast-forward to where we are today, and just looking at a handful of spending measures that Congress has passed in one year’s time – it takes us to roughly $6.4 trillion! This is nearly 10x the amount of the TARP funds during the GFC, which was the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression.

The $6.4 trillion figure comes from the Nobody CARES Act 1.0, which was around $2.2 trillion. The Nobody CARES Act 2.0, which was passed last December as the spending from 1.0 was coming to an end, cost another $900 billion. This was accompanied by a $1.4 trillion spending measure just to “keep the lights on,” as this was for ordinary government expenditures. And now finally, at least for now, we have the $1.9 trillion monstrosity. This gives us a total of $6.4 trillion. This is nearly two full years of federal government revenues! It is thus easy to understand why the country is running multi-trillion dollar deficits. And to place this into further perspective, any one of those aforementioned spending measures would be one of the top 20 economies in the world by GDP. The total of $6.4 trillion would be the third largest behind the US and China. And more than $1 trillion above the GDP of Japan!

To add insult to injury, the $1.4 trillion spending bill was only good for through Q1 2021, which means another round will have to be passed or the government may have to shut down. This also does not take into consideration any further spending with respect to infrastructure, which is needed, healthcare policies, environmental policies, or the like, which are likely to be brought up with Democrats in control of the White House and Congress. So one of the saddest things about all of this is that all of this money is being borrowed and printed into existence and then spent, but with very little to show for it. All of this spending could have rebuilt this country’s infrastructure 2x or 3x over. And you can use your imagination on all the other items that may have been improved with that kind of money…Of course none of this is free. The inflation that has thus been created and unleashed is now underway and the costs will be historic and devastating. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Debt #Markets #Spending #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Jobs #Bailouts #Liberty #USA #Gold #Silver