Tag: Joe Biden

Ep. 469 – Election Interference
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 469 - Election Interference
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No one holds a candle to the type of election interference that the US engages in, but nevertheless, we heard from the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and Director of the FBI this evening about interference campaigns being run by Iran and Russia. Apparently, Iran is sending out emails to Americans with threatening statements to vote for a certain candidate. The Kapital News is sure that there are many other attacks and attempts underway, but this is what we are being informed of as of this evening – with only two weeks to go until election day.

We have discussed in previous podcasts the dangers of social media platforms and their effectiveness with respect to spreading misinformation and disinformation. With some deep pockets and/or a very creative mind, individuals, teams, campaigns, political groups, and yes, foreign actors, can shape political opinions, and with it, potentially drive election outcomes. This social media Pandora’s box has been opened, and the contents are not going back in anytime soon – if ever. And don’t forget, this is all going on while President Trump claims that it’s a rigged election if he should lose, but evidently everything is fine if should he win – this is outrageous and only goes to further divide, confuse, and frustrate the American people.

In other news, President Obama was on the campaign trail this evening in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – a battleground state. Attempting to be the “closer” for the Biden-Harris campaign. The Democrats are looking to regain Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the “blue wall.” If this should happen, then odds have it that Joe Biden will become the next President. Current polling would indicate that Biden has a lead in all three states, but so did Clinton in 2016 – this race is far from over. We shall see if President Obama’s message was enough to turn PA blue once again for the Democrats. Early vote counts are currently north of 44 million, representing about 32 percent of 2016 total voter turnout. It’s nearly 3-to-1 in the breakdown between mail ballots and in-person votes at this juncture. With more votes taking place in these early rounds, it increases the likelihood that we’ll know the winner within a day or two of the election. However, should there be some tight races in key battleground states, then it could take weeks or months to determine the winner of the White House. And buckle up – tomorrow evening is the second and final debate between President Trump and VP Joe Biden – anything can happen. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Elections2020 #Debates2020 #Economy #USA #Russia #Iran #China #Vote #Gold #Silver #Inflation #Debt #Bailouts #Jobs #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 468 – Democrats + Republicans Have To Go!
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 468 - Democrats + Republicans Have To Go!
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This country is beyond its tipping point and the economic and political system is to blame – as are the people for allowing this to build up around them. The merger of big business with big government was always going to bring us to this point in time – it was merely a question as to when this would happen. Well, here we are. Taken with the two-party system, which is really just one party, has brought this nation to her knees, and because of the economic and political system, our choices are more of the same. This time with two, seventy-something years-old men, who, as we’ll put it nicely, have lost their fast ball. In such trying and dire times, we get to choose between a bombastic demagogue who takes zero responsibility and someone who has been in government for nearly fifty years who very much is a part of the problem and the system. This is pathetic, embarrassing, and a disgrace. And because these are bad choices, the country is still naturally split on who to vote for. It’s possible that there will be a red or blue wave, but it’s also possible that there’s a divided government – we don’t know which scenario is the worst one!

We are in the midst of the greatest depression. The reason we do not yet realize this is due to the fact that central governments and banks have thrown trillions of dollars into the system. All this has done is to buy the system some time. And in the interim, for these governments and central banks to give the newly printed money to their closest of friends and corporations. Meanwhile, small businesses and individuals are suffering, and unfortunately, this will continue. In fact, this is likely to get even worse. This is because the trillions of dollars have only served the purpose of keeping the system afloat. Once these dollars have been used and thus their effects diminished, then markets are going to have to face reality. This reality consists of, a commercial real estate collapse, millions of evictions, a countless number of insolvencies and bankruptcies, which will bring massive layoffs, residential real estate declines, and if the funny money cannot continue to lift equity prices, then massive selloffs in the equities markets. This podcast highlights the destructive nature of our system and provides an untold amount of data points and evidence affirming our argument. So the question becomes – when will you leave this two-party system and demand real change? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #USA #RNC #GOP #DNC

Ep. 467 – More Spending – Put Up or Shut Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 467 - More Spending - Put Up or Shut Up
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Wall Street did not like the fact that there was not another round of spending agreed to over the weekend or during the day’s trading session – equities sold off. This is the same song and dance we have witnessed several times before throughout 2018-2019 with the US-China trade talks, and the last several months with talks of more spending. Of course, we don’t have the money – but we guess, who cares?! Nonetheless, these stories are thrown out there to juice and pump stocks higher even though there isn’t really anything agreed to. But as we noted last week, as was the case in previous situations, there will come a day when the markets say enough talk – put up or shut up. Well that appears to have been the case today as noted by the selloff across the major indexes. Now, in overnight futures trading, we have the major indexes trading higher again on hopes that Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, along with the White House, and Republicans will continue talks tomorrow, and believe something can be agreed to prior to election day. These headlines are an insult, pure propaganda, and market manipulation, but we digress. And of course, it’s the country and the American people who suffer the consequences and are caught in the crossfire.

On the election front, some 31.3 million votes have already been cast, representing about 22.5 percent of the 2016 total vote turnout. This is quite astonishing and we may very well witness more than half the 2016 turnout occur before election day. This will likely lead to knowing on election night or the day after, who has won the Presidency – as opposed to having all or the majority of votes on election day. A potential con of all this early voting is voters may miss an, “October Surprise,” but we doubt this would have any major effect – most people know who they want to vote for and not much will sway that in either direction.

The President is campaigning heavily and has even been going to some strong red-states, such as Arizona and Georgia, thus signaling that the Trump campaign is concerned with the polling results coming out of these traditional red-states, which Trump won in 2016. President Obama will also be on the campaign trail this week for his former Vice President, as he makes stops in Pennsylvania. The race is still very much up for grabs, but if Biden is able to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he’s up in the polls for all three, then Joe Biden is likely the next President. This would even assume Trump wins the south as in 2016, Iowa, Nevada (which he lost in 2016), Texas, Arizona, and Ohio. So this paints a very big uphill battle for the President to gain those 270 electoral votes that are needed to cross the finish line. It can happen, but the path is slim. The last debate between the Presidential candidates is also taking place this Thursday. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Debates2020 #Inflation #Debt #Gold #Silver #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 466 – Weekly Wrap Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 466 - Weekly Wrap Up
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A recap of this week’s events pertaining to initial jobless claims, Presidential debates, market performance, negative rates, the broader election landscape with down ticket races, and debt and deficit figures. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Elections #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #Debates #Bailouts #USA

Ep. 465 – Townhalls + Jobs
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 465 - Townhalls + Jobs
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Two separate townhalls took place this evening in lieu of what should have been the second debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden. Nonetheless, the American people had a chance to watch these townhall events and for the public to ask questions of these two men running for the Presidency. As has been the case in prior townhalls, neither man derailed his campaign. Although there were clear differences in style and temperament, which of course should be no surprise. President Trump tends to be more aggressive, combative, and loud, while Biden tends to be more laid back, reserved, and civil. It is very likely that these differences in style and personality will drive the election results. People either want another four years of President Trump and his behavior and antics or they do not. Nearly 20 million people have already cast their votes, and come election day, it’s possible that half the country may have already voted.

On the initial jobless claims front, another 898,000 Americans filed an initial claim. This runs counter to the argument that this is a super V-shaped recovery. This was well above market expectations, which were around 820,000-825,000 – which is still a high figure. The previous week’s number was also revised upward by 5,000. In total, for persons claiming unemployment benefits, 25.3 million Americans are still receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 26 September and represents a decrease from the prior week of some 215,000 Americans. This is still a staggering and stubbornly high number. Further, we are still contending with the figures coming from the state of California being on pause as they make their way through their backlog of claims and implement a fraud prevention system. This is surely distortionary when attempting to gain a fuller picture of the jobs market – but we have been contending with distortions for months due to fiscal and monetary actions.

The increase in claims, however, is indicative of continuing stress in the economy and would be in agreement with what The Kapital News has been warning about for months. Mainly that fiscal and monetary policy will only get you so far, and that a printing press cannot print jobs. So when taking into consideration the insolvencies and bankruptcies, evictions, weakness in commercial and residential real estate markets, and subsequent layoffs that are waiting in the wings – it’s unfortunately not surprising that we continue to witness such job loss and future uncertainty. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debates #Jobs #Elections #USA #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Bailouts

Ep. 464 – Election October Surprises?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 464 - Election October Surprises?
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With only a few weeks to go until election day, it’s anybody’s guess if there will be an October surprise or two. A couple of stories out recently pertain to the unmasking of US citizens who also happened to be members of the Trump campaign in 2016 – this story has been peddled by President Trump for years, where he has gone so far to say President Obama has committed treason and should be prosecuted. Well, a prosecutor assigned to this case at the Justice Department has concluded that the Obama Administration did not break the law. This of course upset the President, and when asked if he would keep Attorney General Bill Barr as AG should he win re-election, the President replied, “no comment.” This is just another example of the boy who cries wolf, where the President has been making several claims about several reports over the last few years, only to turn out to be nothing – no arrests, no prosecutions, no fines, etc…

Another story comes from the New York Post pertaining to Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Allegedly there are emails and photos that suggest Joe Biden was aware of Hunter’s business dealings with Ukraine and perhaps other foreign countries. The timing of all of this is highly suspect being so close to election day. So the reasonable question to ask is, is this the truth or just a political hit being used to sway an election? The Biden campaign continues to deny any allegations that Joe Biden was aware of his son’s business dealings and played a role in such affairs.

There is desperation in the air as we get closer to 3 November and the Trump campaign has a big hill to climb to regain the Presidency – but it can happen – there are a couple of avenues to winning. However, relitigating the Clinton email scandal, the unmasking situation, hyping up other reports and investigations, and now the Biden email story, may not be the best way to unite a country that is in need of unification. But this is politics, and it’s going to be nasty – especially when the White House is the prize. Buckle up, it’s 2020, an election year, and a few more weeks to go – anything can happen. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Trump #Biden #Debt #Recession #Depression #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #USA

Ep. 463 – What’s The Market Pricing In?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 463 - What's The Market Pricing In?
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It would appear that the US stock market is priced to perfection. Meaning any false moves and events that run counter to what the market is expected could cause a cascading decline and increase in volatility. Even though the volatility index, (VIX), that monitors the S&P 500 has remained somewhat elevated trading in the 20 for quite awhile, and the MOVE Index, the VIX of the bond market, has hit all-time lows – the stock market is shrugging all of this off. This in effect saying that there are no major risk events on the horizon, traders/investors are complacent, that volatility is under control due to global central bank policies, and thus there is nothing to worry about. Furthermore, even if something “negative” should occur, there’s no need to worry because central governments and central banks will continue to have the “backs” of the market(s), and will flood the system with further fiscal spending and monetary liquidity injections.

This is no longer a market as they are completely decoupled from reality and the real economy. Yes, printing and spending trillions of dollars around the globe will make things appear ok – but only for a while and with a huge price tag associated with such policies. In addition, US markets seem to be pricing in a clear victory for the Biden/Harris ticket and with it, the prospects of a “blue wave,” meaning the Democrats take control of the House and Senate as well. This means that Trump will not contest the election and take it to the courts – where if this did happen, would go to the US Supreme Court. This kind of “certainty” and complacency that is permeating throughout the markets gives The Kapital News both pause and concern – markets love to surprise. Further, with respect to the MOVE index, might this be the calm before the storm? And if it is, increased and sizable volatility in the bond market will cause volatility to increase amongst many other markets, thus throwing this perfectly priced market into a possible tailspin. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Markets #Debt #Bailouts #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #USA

Ep. 461 – Accounting Gimmicks Delaying The Day of Reckoning?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 461 - Accounting Gimmicks Delaying The Day of Reckoning?
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Another Thursday and another initial claims report. For the week ending 3 October, 840,000 Americans filed an initial claim – higher than market expectations. Despite being several months into this pandemic and a supposed V-shaped recovery, we’re still witnessing massive weekly filings of over 800,000. The prior week’s figure was revised upward by 12,000 to 849,000. Recall that last week, the Department of Labor noted that the state of California will be “pausing” the release of their figures due to their backlog of claims and to implement a fraud prevention system. This delay is not trivial in our estimation and will only serve to further distort the jobs market. Overall, for the week ending 19 September, 25.5 million Americans are still claiming unemployment insurance benefits. This is a week-over-week decrease of around 1 million. This is trending in the right direction, but may reverse sharply due to the California pause and the nearing exhaustion and expiry of various “stimulus” policies. We also know through the official jobs report released last Friday, that permanent job losers now stand at 3.8 million. This is a level not seen since 2012 and this is a structural, long-term issue that is not likely to be remedied in the near-term. We also know through various surveys and announcements that many corporations are soon to layoff employees in significant numbers. The downstream effects this will have on the broader economy will likely create further downward pressure, thus continuing the recessionary spiral.

We also discuss a couple political news events and a recent interview with famed short-seller and hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. Chanos notes the potential severity of a commercial real estate collapse, which he deems quite probable, while also stating that weakness in this area was occurring prior to the pandemic. However, he notes that in the Nobody CARES Act, there is a change in the accounting rules that allows corporations to create different “buckets” that shield them from fully disclosing the true effects associated with the pandemic. If corporations should so choose to use this provision from the Nobody CARES Act, then this will likely serve the purpose of making them appear more financially sound than they really are – thus the day of reckoning has not be thwarted, but rather only delayed. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #USA #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Debt #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Recession #Depression #Elections

Ep. 460 – Pence v. Harris Debate
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 460 - Pence v. Harris Debate
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The first and only Vice Presidential debate took place tonight between VP Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris. Both sides did what they had to do in our opinion. Pence had to defend the Trump Administration’s record as best he could and attempt to do so with a more serious and civil tone – he succeeded. Harris on the other hand had to simply keep the pace, as the Biden/Harris ticket is well ahead in the polls – even in key swing states and among key demographics – she succeeded. The main event is always the Presidential race and thus the Presidential candidates, and this race is no different. There are only a few short weeks to go until 3 November, and despite that, it must be stressed that anything can happen between now and then. It still is anybody’s race, but given the recent events surrounding the debates thus far, among other concerns, The Kapital News is now forecasting a likely victory for the Biden/Harris ticket. Again, this could change, but if the course remains steady then it will be an extreme uphill battle for the Trump/Pence ticket to win re-election.

In other news, the President reversed course with respect to stopping the negotiations surrounding another round of spending and is once again claiming that he wants to sign a deal. This is borderline insanity and shows the immense power of the words and actions of the President. Yesterday following his tweet to stop the talks, the markets sold off massively. Today, due to the reversal – stocks rallied nearly 2 percent. The President knows of his power and what he’s doing – this is market manipulation and needs to be investigated. These actions have been taking place in the face of the American people since 2017 – it needs to end. The President is also increasing the amount he’d like to give to the airline industry from $20 billion to $25 billion. The previous amount worked out to $625,000 per job “saved.” Now, with the increase, it’ll amount to $781,250 per job “saved.” This is beyond ridiculous. These are publicly traded companies – let them issue shares, go to the corporate debt markets, seek loans from banks, sale their assets, etc. The last place they should be coming for assistance is to the American taxpayer. This should tell you all you need to know as to who our elected officials are really working for. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Bailouts #Jobs #Inflation #RNC #DNC #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Liberty #Revolution #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #USA

Ep. 459 – The Circus Continues
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 459 - The Circus Continues
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Presidential tweets caused markets to swing back ‘n forth, ending the day lower. Earlier in the afternoon, stocks rallied off the news that the President was feeling better and not exhibiting any symptoms of COVID-19. This rally was only later to be reversed by yet another tweet, whereby the President ordered his representatives to end the negotiations with the Democrats on another spending bill – stocks sold off massively. This is an interesting turn of events, as earlier the President was praising the economy and stock market – only to tweet out the stoppage of further spending that the stock market has been hoping for over the last several weeks. Also interesting is the fact that only a few days ago, the President was telling Congress to get their act together to pass another spending bill. Furthermore, the President a couple of weeks ago during a press conference at the White House, called out Republicans to go for the, “big one,” with respect to another spending bill – claiming that it (the money), all comes back to the USA anyway. Now while the President has stopped the negotiations, he is claiming that another spending bill will be passed after he wins his re-election. So, is the President holding this money as ransom?

We know through various surveys that nearly 50 percent of US households are broke. And we know that some 30 to 40 percent of small businesses have claimed that if they do not receive further assistance from Congress that they will not be able to last through the end of the year. These figures do not count the number of small businesses that have already closed their doors for good. Now make the logical connection(s), without further governmental assistance, many more small businesses will be forced to file bankruptcy and/or liquidate, which will result in further layoffs, which in turn will lead to lower demand for various goods and services throughout the economy, thus causing further downward pressure. This is in stark contrast to how the President notes that the economy is on a fast track to recovery. Then, coincidentally today, we have Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, making comments that without further spending by Congress, the economy may face tragic outcomes. This is some of the strongest language that the Fed Chair has used to stress the need for further fiscal measures. So – somebody is not telling us the truth. On one hand, the President says everything is fine and further spending can wait and/or isn’t needed; and on the other, we have the Fed Chair claiming that major risks exist to the economy/markets if further fiscal actions are not taken.

The Kapital News believes that this house of cards economy is on the verge of collapse. We have consistently been against both fiscal and monetary efforts to “bolster” the US economy and markets since the very beginning and even before they were enacted. There is no free lunch and the costs associated with these efforts will be felt for at least a generation. Meanwhile, any short-term “positive” effects that these measures may have brought have already run its course. Note that some $9.6 trillion has been spent from Federal/State/Local governments and this is where we are: some 26.5 million Americans still claiming unemployment insurance, permanent job losers at 3.8 million, a level not seen since 2013, median duration of unemployed at levels not seen since 2012, tens of millions of evictions waiting in the wings, a countless number of bankruptcies and insolvencies, and with it massive layoffs. So, no, this is not a strong economic recovery. This is simply an attempt by government and central bank figures to keep this mirage of an economy afloat – and in the interim it is decimating small businesses and middle-America – and the true costs of it all have not even been realized – yet. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Debt #Elections #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #Liberty #Revolution #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Jobs #Recession #Depression #GE #Boeing