Tag: Italy

Ep. 571 – Another 750,000 Jobs Bite The Dust

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 571 - Another 750,000 Jobs Bite The Dust
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Were we not just informed last Friday with the release of a “stellar” jobs report that the economy and namely the jobs market recovery was well underway? Well then how can we have another 744,000 Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week ending 3 April? Furthermore, you have to understand that this figure only represents regular state unemployment benefits. However, due to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns and restrictions, federal government programs were established to assist those who would not traditionally qualify for state benefits. So, taking into consideration such a program, known as Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, or PUA, we see that nearly 152,000 Americans filed an initial claim for the week ending 3 April. This means in aggregate that nearly 900,000 Americans filed an initial claim last week! Talk about recovery, as this is now over one full year since such draconian measures have been implemented. Last week’s figure of 719,000 was revised upward to now stand at 728,000 for the week ending 27 March. In aggregate, across all unemployment programs, some 18.2 million Americans continue to file claims. This is little changed from the prior week, and gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 12.7 percent. This is more than double the official unemployment rate, which now rests at 6.0 percent.

In other news, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet sits at $7.708 trillion, which is a week-over-week increase of $20 billion and is just shy of hitting a new all-time high. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. They continue to purchase MBS despite the fact that housing prices are at all-time highs and continue to climb, even as lumber and other construction materials prices continue their ascent.

And lastly, major geopolitical risks are taking shape around the globe. Whether it is increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, Northern Ireland rioting against Brexit, how the US is involved in all of these areas, or leaders in Italy and Turkey doing some name-calling, one thing is certain, the globe is on very unstable ground. With so much taking place, it increases the likelihood of mistakes being made or it creates the perfect environment for a false-flag attack, which will then be used as justification for conflict or even war. And oh yes, the Middle East and Africa remain hot spots for conflict as well. And if enough people in poorer and middle-income nations does not constitute enough financial strife, add Canada to the mix. A new survey released indicates that 53 percent of Canadians are on the verge of insolvency as they are only $200 away from not being able to pay their monthly bills and debt obligations. This figure includes the 30 percent of Canadians who are already insolvent. And despite all of this or perhaps because of it, real estate prices in Canada continue to skyrocket, with many homes selling well above their asking price, site unseen! But remember, our fearless leaders inform us that there is NO inflation. What a joke. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Inflation #Geopolitics #Protests #Peace #USA #Liberty #Leadership #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #China #Russia #Germany #Ukraine #Taiwan #Philippines #Italy #Turkey #Canada

Ep. 336 – Central Banks Panic!

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 336 - Central Banks Panic!
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In a second emergency meeting in as little as two weeks, the Federal Reserve has met, and decided to cut interest rates by 100bps. This now takes the Federal Funds Rate down to a range of 0.0 – 0.25%. The last time rates were this low was during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. Recall, it was just a couple of weeks ago that the Fed cut rates by 50bps during that emergency meeting. So in very short order, the Fed has cut rates by 150bps! The next leg down, by definition would take us into negative territory on a nominal basis. On a real basis, the US has been in negative territory for quite awhile.

On the back of this information, we believed their were only two outcomes for how markets would respond. First, this decision could be seen as a panic move because the FOMC was scheduled to meet this week and announce their decision on Wednesday. However, they instead held this meeting this weekend and announced their decision this afternoon. So, the question becomes, why couldn’t the Fed wait another 48-72 hours to announce their decision – panic perhaps? Or option two would be, the crack addicts got their fix from their dealer a few days earlier, thus setting the stage for stocks to rally. Well, it appears the former. At least for now as the US futures market has hit limit down once again – the 5th time in the last six sessions, which means the circuit breakers have kicked in because stock futures have fallen by 5% and thus trading has been halted. Despite the massive rally on Friday – should the futures market hold, then half of Friday’s gains will be eliminated if not more. But not much surprises us anymore.

On the COVID19 front as well as economic front, country after country is making the decision to close their borders and/or make stricter guidelines surrounding travel in and out of their respective countries. This is in effect a global quarantine. The economic shock from both the supply side and demand side cannot be remedied by monetary or fiscal stimulus. These efforts to be undertaken by monetary and governmental authorities will serve only as mere attempts at looking like they are in charge – as if there is some kind of leadership. After a decade of deranged and fraudulent monetary policies, coupled with asinine fiscal measures, out of control corporate debt, and over levered consumers, the debt and credit chickens are coming home to roost. What COVID19 did was that is served as the pin that pricked the out of control global debt bubble. On top of this, don’t forget about the oil price war and all of the other economic data that has been pointing to a global slowdown prior to both COVID19 and the oil price wars.

We are only witnessing the tip of the iceberg, which is why central authorities are panicking. We have yet to see any cascading effect with respect to bankruptcies, let alone any bankruptcy of a major corporation. This outcome is unfortunately likely because of the size and duration of this supply and demand shock, coupled with the massive amounts of debt. This is a double, triple, maybe even a quadruple whammy across various sectors the world over. This massive unraveling will not end well nor will it end quickly. People must understand the root cause of this if we are ever to put into place a solid foundation on which to build a lasting economy and society. Otherwise, we’ll continue with the same old antics, on the same old foundation of sand. We can and must do better. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #COVID19 #EndTheFed #Truth #Justice #Peace #Politics #USA #Coronavirus

Ep. 109A – A Fracturing Europe: Italeave?

The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 109A - A Fracturing Europe: Italeave?
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Italian PM Giuseppe Conte resigned today as tensions between the coalition government came to a boil. The coalition of the far-left Five Star Movement and the far-right Lega Part is no more. Lega Party leader, Matteo Salvini, is seeking to become the country’s next PM. His rise to power over the last couple of years has been consistent with the growth is nationalist and populist movements the world over. Emboldened by recent EU Parliament elections, Salvini has the PM post in his cross-hairs. It is not certain that he will win, but should he, this will cause many more headaches for the top brass within the EU. As the Brexit saga continues to unfold, will the EU next have to deal with an Italeave? If they do, this is all but the kiss of death for the “European Experiment.” In other news, global markets continue their whip-saw movements, yet still find themselves range-bound. This consolidation will not be long-lived and they will break-out either strongly to the upside or to the downside. So be sure to stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Italeave #Brexit #EU #WakeUpAmerica #Economics #Politics #Peace