Tag: Elections

Ep. 473 – More Polls Coming In
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 473 - More Polls Coming In
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It’s a dash to the finish line and pollsters across the country are looking to salvage their reputations and livelihoods, as 2016 went out with a surprise. While not as big a surprise as the President and his surrogates would have you believe, but nonetheless, it was clear that most pollsters had Hillary Clinton winning the White House (although she did win the popular vote). This year, with most polls being relatively stable, both nationally and at the state level, they have consistently been showing Joe Biden with the lead. Some of these states may be within a polling error, but others have Biden pulling away. This is not what the Trump campaign wants to see, as their avenue to winning re-election in getting narrower. Conversely, Biden has several lanes that can get him to 270 electoral college votes.

In today’s podcast, we highlight some of these newer polls, (many more will be coming in throughout the week), we also update the early vote count, and briefly touch upon the market sell-off, and the European lockdowns. Early vote totals are now 76.5 million, with 50.7 million being mail ballots, and 25.8 million in-person. This represents nearly 56 percent of the total turnout in 2016, and also likely represents as least 50 percent of the 2020 total turnout. With such high numbers for early voting, it becomes more of a probability that the election results will either be on election night, or within a couple of days – which of course would be best for the country – as opposed to some long drawn out court battle. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #Vote #USA #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #Leadership

Ep. 472 – Closing Arguments – Election 2020
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 472 - Closing Arguments - Election 2020
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With only one week to go until 3 November, early voting continues to shatter through 2016 figures. Current early votes stand at 70.5 million with 47.2 million being mail ballots, and 23.3 million being in-person. This is now over 50 percent of the total turnout in 2016. It is estimated that this year will see anywhere between 150-160 million votes. Should the trajectory of early voting continue through this week, then it is highly possible that this will represent 50-70 percent of the total vote turnout of 2020. If this proves true, then it increases the likelihood that a winner will be announced on election night or within a day or two. However, if the race is shown to be close, especially in key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania and Florida, then we can expect a legal battle up to the US Supreme Court, and this could takes weeks, if not months to resolve. Despite the probability that the Biden/Harris ticket will prove victorious, it is still very much either man’s race. This is 2020 and a lot can happen in a week to put it mildly. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #Economy #Liberty #Revolution #USA #Trump #Biden #Vote

Ep. 471 – Home Stretch: Election 2020
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 471 - Home Stretch: Election 2020
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With one week to go until election day, it is still very much either man’s race. However, with the consistency in the polling, both nationally and across the states, the probability is that Joe Biden will win this election. When analyzing the electoral college map, there are several avenues to victory for the Biden ticket, as opposed to a few for the President. But recall, in 2016, there were only a few avenues for then candidate Trump – and he won – so it can happen again.

Early voting is simply on a roll as we are now standing at 64.2 million votes being cast! Mail ballots represent the largest block with 43.2 million votes, while in-person accounts for 21 million. This is shattering the numbers for early voting in 2016 and some analysts project as high as 100 million votes may be in prior to election day, 3 November. If this is the case, or even close to it, then it is likely that we will know the winner on election night or within a day or two. Of course, if it’s a close race, then this may drag on for weeks, if not months, as it makes its way through the courts. Another indicator of an early election night, would be if Joe Biden should win the state of Florida. Should this happen, Biden is nearly guaranteed a victory. However, should Trump win Florida, as he did in 2016, then it’ll likely be a long night, unless Biden sweeps across the board in other battleground states.

Election 2020 and Joe Biden are much different than election 2016 and Hillary Clinton. An outsider versus an insider, straight talk against political correctness, no political track record versus a lifetime in politics, and a few others. Now, in the midst of a global pandemic and the greatest depression, coupled with the President having a political record on the books, changes the dynamic. Lots of Democrats “crossed the line” to vote for Trump in 2016 as did many Independents. There was also a large contingency that didn’t vote due to the unpopularity of the two candidates. Also, many Democrats who wanted Bernie Sanders to be the nominee, did not like how the DNC treated Sanders, and so they either didn’t vote, or voted third party. A lot of this drama that helped Trump in 2016 appears to be non-existent or at least much smaller than before. Will those same Democrats be comfortable giving Trump another four years, now that they know how he governs? Same question for Independents and even Republicans who were hesitant last time, but are they now not going to vote for Trump in 2020?

With one week left to go, it’s anybody’s guess, but what is not a guess, is the fact that the structural issues are not being addressed, nor will they likely be regardless who wins. What’s also a near 100 percent certainty is the continuation of the political, social, and economic decline and decay – again, because the structural issues are not being dealt with and because of the lack of leadership. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #Economy #Liberty #Revolution #Trump #Biden #USA

Ep. 470 – Debates Done, 12 Days to Go!
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 470 - Debates Done, 12 Days to Go!
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The second and final debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden has concluded. This was a much more civil debate than the first – not a difficult proposition due to the nature of the prior engagement. Nevertheless, both candidates landed jabs and some power punches, but neither landed a knock out blow. With respect to certain issues, each side can declare victory as to how they conveyed their message to their respective political base, yet on some topics, also appealing to the broader electorate. With twelve days left to go until election day, it is still either man’s race. However, there are fewer paths to victory for the Trump campaign as opposed to the Biden campaign. Hitting the campaign trail hard over the next two weeks will likely be the plan for both men, as well as getting out as many surrogates as possible, and more importantly yet, getting as many people to vote early if possible, or on election day.

The current early vote tally stands at 47.7 million, with 34.2 being mail ballots, and about 14.5 million in-person. This is smashing the numbers witnessed in 2016, and current vote totals as a percentage of all votes in 2016 is already at 35 percent! In 2016 there were about 137 million votes. Political analysts are expecting 2020 results to come in the 150 to 160 million range. This is a staggering increase and will be interesting to see where the momentum lies. We know this is at the very least a referendum on President Trump – especially with respect to his character, rhetoric, and divisive tendencies. Still, the President has a highly motivated and enthusiastic base of support – but will it be enough to get him over the finish line for re-election? This is not 2016 and Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. Despite this fact, President Trump and his surrogates are using the 2016 playbook attacks for Hillary Clinton, on Joe Biden. This will likely work for the Trump base of support, but it’s effectiveness on Democrats and Independents is most likely nil. Less than two weeks to go and anything can happen and either man can win. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #USA #Economy #Trump #Biden #Vote #Jobs #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 468 – Democrats + Republicans Have To Go!
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 468 - Democrats + Republicans Have To Go!
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This country is beyond its tipping point and the economic and political system is to blame – as are the people for allowing this to build up around them. The merger of big business with big government was always going to bring us to this point in time – it was merely a question as to when this would happen. Well, here we are. Taken with the two-party system, which is really just one party, has brought this nation to her knees, and because of the economic and political system, our choices are more of the same. This time with two, seventy-something years-old men, who, as we’ll put it nicely, have lost their fast ball. In such trying and dire times, we get to choose between a bombastic demagogue who takes zero responsibility and someone who has been in government for nearly fifty years who very much is a part of the problem and the system. This is pathetic, embarrassing, and a disgrace. And because these are bad choices, the country is still naturally split on who to vote for. It’s possible that there will be a red or blue wave, but it’s also possible that there’s a divided government – we don’t know which scenario is the worst one!

We are in the midst of the greatest depression. The reason we do not yet realize this is due to the fact that central governments and banks have thrown trillions of dollars into the system. All this has done is to buy the system some time. And in the interim, for these governments and central banks to give the newly printed money to their closest of friends and corporations. Meanwhile, small businesses and individuals are suffering, and unfortunately, this will continue. In fact, this is likely to get even worse. This is because the trillions of dollars have only served the purpose of keeping the system afloat. Once these dollars have been used and thus their effects diminished, then markets are going to have to face reality. This reality consists of, a commercial real estate collapse, millions of evictions, a countless number of insolvencies and bankruptcies, which will bring massive layoffs, residential real estate declines, and if the funny money cannot continue to lift equity prices, then massive selloffs in the equities markets. This podcast highlights the destructive nature of our system and provides an untold amount of data points and evidence affirming our argument. So the question becomes – when will you leave this two-party system and demand real change? Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #USA #RNC #GOP #DNC

Ep. 467 – More Spending – Put Up or Shut Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 467 - More Spending - Put Up or Shut Up
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Wall Street did not like the fact that there was not another round of spending agreed to over the weekend or during the day’s trading session – equities sold off. This is the same song and dance we have witnessed several times before throughout 2018-2019 with the US-China trade talks, and the last several months with talks of more spending. Of course, we don’t have the money – but we guess, who cares?! Nonetheless, these stories are thrown out there to juice and pump stocks higher even though there isn’t really anything agreed to. But as we noted last week, as was the case in previous situations, there will come a day when the markets say enough talk – put up or shut up. Well that appears to have been the case today as noted by the selloff across the major indexes. Now, in overnight futures trading, we have the major indexes trading higher again on hopes that Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, along with the White House, and Republicans will continue talks tomorrow, and believe something can be agreed to prior to election day. These headlines are an insult, pure propaganda, and market manipulation, but we digress. And of course, it’s the country and the American people who suffer the consequences and are caught in the crossfire.

On the election front, some 31.3 million votes have already been cast, representing about 22.5 percent of the 2016 total vote turnout. This is quite astonishing and we may very well witness more than half the 2016 turnout occur before election day. This will likely lead to knowing on election night or the day after, who has won the Presidency – as opposed to having all or the majority of votes on election day. A potential con of all this early voting is voters may miss an, “October Surprise,” but we doubt this would have any major effect – most people know who they want to vote for and not much will sway that in either direction.

The President is campaigning heavily and has even been going to some strong red-states, such as Arizona and Georgia, thus signaling that the Trump campaign is concerned with the polling results coming out of these traditional red-states, which Trump won in 2016. President Obama will also be on the campaign trail this week for his former Vice President, as he makes stops in Pennsylvania. The race is still very much up for grabs, but if Biden is able to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he’s up in the polls for all three, then Joe Biden is likely the next President. This would even assume Trump wins the south as in 2016, Iowa, Nevada (which he lost in 2016), Texas, Arizona, and Ohio. So this paints a very big uphill battle for the President to gain those 270 electoral votes that are needed to cross the finish line. It can happen, but the path is slim. The last debate between the Presidential candidates is also taking place this Thursday. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Debates2020 #Inflation #Debt #Gold #Silver #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 465 – Townhalls + Jobs
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 465 - Townhalls + Jobs
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Two separate townhalls took place this evening in lieu of what should have been the second debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden. Nonetheless, the American people had a chance to watch these townhall events and for the public to ask questions of these two men running for the Presidency. As has been the case in prior townhalls, neither man derailed his campaign. Although there were clear differences in style and temperament, which of course should be no surprise. President Trump tends to be more aggressive, combative, and loud, while Biden tends to be more laid back, reserved, and civil. It is very likely that these differences in style and personality will drive the election results. People either want another four years of President Trump and his behavior and antics or they do not. Nearly 20 million people have already cast their votes, and come election day, it’s possible that half the country may have already voted.

On the initial jobless claims front, another 898,000 Americans filed an initial claim. This runs counter to the argument that this is a super V-shaped recovery. This was well above market expectations, which were around 820,000-825,000 – which is still a high figure. The previous week’s number was also revised upward by 5,000. In total, for persons claiming unemployment benefits, 25.3 million Americans are still receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 26 September and represents a decrease from the prior week of some 215,000 Americans. This is still a staggering and stubbornly high number. Further, we are still contending with the figures coming from the state of California being on pause as they make their way through their backlog of claims and implement a fraud prevention system. This is surely distortionary when attempting to gain a fuller picture of the jobs market – but we have been contending with distortions for months due to fiscal and monetary actions.

The increase in claims, however, is indicative of continuing stress in the economy and would be in agreement with what The Kapital News has been warning about for months. Mainly that fiscal and monetary policy will only get you so far, and that a printing press cannot print jobs. So when taking into consideration the insolvencies and bankruptcies, evictions, weakness in commercial and residential real estate markets, and subsequent layoffs that are waiting in the wings – it’s unfortunately not surprising that we continue to witness such job loss and future uncertainty. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debates #Jobs #Elections #USA #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Bailouts

Ep. 464 – Election October Surprises?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 464 - Election October Surprises?
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With only a few weeks to go until election day, it’s anybody’s guess if there will be an October surprise or two. A couple of stories out recently pertain to the unmasking of US citizens who also happened to be members of the Trump campaign in 2016 – this story has been peddled by President Trump for years, where he has gone so far to say President Obama has committed treason and should be prosecuted. Well, a prosecutor assigned to this case at the Justice Department has concluded that the Obama Administration did not break the law. This of course upset the President, and when asked if he would keep Attorney General Bill Barr as AG should he win re-election, the President replied, “no comment.” This is just another example of the boy who cries wolf, where the President has been making several claims about several reports over the last few years, only to turn out to be nothing – no arrests, no prosecutions, no fines, etc…

Another story comes from the New York Post pertaining to Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Allegedly there are emails and photos that suggest Joe Biden was aware of Hunter’s business dealings with Ukraine and perhaps other foreign countries. The timing of all of this is highly suspect being so close to election day. So the reasonable question to ask is, is this the truth or just a political hit being used to sway an election? The Biden campaign continues to deny any allegations that Joe Biden was aware of his son’s business dealings and played a role in such affairs.

There is desperation in the air as we get closer to 3 November and the Trump campaign has a big hill to climb to regain the Presidency – but it can happen – there are a couple of avenues to winning. However, relitigating the Clinton email scandal, the unmasking situation, hyping up other reports and investigations, and now the Biden email story, may not be the best way to unite a country that is in need of unification. But this is politics, and it’s going to be nasty – especially when the White House is the prize. Buckle up, it’s 2020, an election year, and a few more weeks to go – anything can happen. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Trump #Biden #Debt #Recession #Depression #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #USA

Ep. 463 – What’s The Market Pricing In?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 463 - What's The Market Pricing In?
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It would appear that the US stock market is priced to perfection. Meaning any false moves and events that run counter to what the market is expected could cause a cascading decline and increase in volatility. Even though the volatility index, (VIX), that monitors the S&P 500 has remained somewhat elevated trading in the 20 for quite awhile, and the MOVE Index, the VIX of the bond market, has hit all-time lows – the stock market is shrugging all of this off. This in effect saying that there are no major risk events on the horizon, traders/investors are complacent, that volatility is under control due to global central bank policies, and thus there is nothing to worry about. Furthermore, even if something “negative” should occur, there’s no need to worry because central governments and central banks will continue to have the “backs” of the market(s), and will flood the system with further fiscal spending and monetary liquidity injections.

This is no longer a market as they are completely decoupled from reality and the real economy. Yes, printing and spending trillions of dollars around the globe will make things appear ok – but only for a while and with a huge price tag associated with such policies. In addition, US markets seem to be pricing in a clear victory for the Biden/Harris ticket and with it, the prospects of a “blue wave,” meaning the Democrats take control of the House and Senate as well. This means that Trump will not contest the election and take it to the courts – where if this did happen, would go to the US Supreme Court. This kind of “certainty” and complacency that is permeating throughout the markets gives The Kapital News both pause and concern – markets love to surprise. Further, with respect to the MOVE index, might this be the calm before the storm? And if it is, increased and sizable volatility in the bond market will cause volatility to increase amongst many other markets, thus throwing this perfectly priced market into a possible tailspin. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Markets #Debt #Bailouts #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #USA

Ep. 461 – Accounting Gimmicks Delaying The Day of Reckoning?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 461 - Accounting Gimmicks Delaying The Day of Reckoning?
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Another Thursday and another initial claims report. For the week ending 3 October, 840,000 Americans filed an initial claim – higher than market expectations. Despite being several months into this pandemic and a supposed V-shaped recovery, we’re still witnessing massive weekly filings of over 800,000. The prior week’s figure was revised upward by 12,000 to 849,000. Recall that last week, the Department of Labor noted that the state of California will be “pausing” the release of their figures due to their backlog of claims and to implement a fraud prevention system. This delay is not trivial in our estimation and will only serve to further distort the jobs market. Overall, for the week ending 19 September, 25.5 million Americans are still claiming unemployment insurance benefits. This is a week-over-week decrease of around 1 million. This is trending in the right direction, but may reverse sharply due to the California pause and the nearing exhaustion and expiry of various “stimulus” policies. We also know through the official jobs report released last Friday, that permanent job losers now stand at 3.8 million. This is a level not seen since 2012 and this is a structural, long-term issue that is not likely to be remedied in the near-term. We also know through various surveys and announcements that many corporations are soon to layoff employees in significant numbers. The downstream effects this will have on the broader economy will likely create further downward pressure, thus continuing the recessionary spiral.

We also discuss a couple political news events and a recent interview with famed short-seller and hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. Chanos notes the potential severity of a commercial real estate collapse, which he deems quite probable, while also stating that weakness in this area was occurring prior to the pandemic. However, he notes that in the Nobody CARES Act, there is a change in the accounting rules that allows corporations to create different “buckets” that shield them from fully disclosing the true effects associated with the pandemic. If corporations should so choose to use this provision from the Nobody CARES Act, then this will likely serve the purpose of making them appear more financially sound than they really are – thus the day of reckoning has not be thwarted, but rather only delayed. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #USA #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Debt #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Recession #Depression #Elections