Tag: Debates

Ep. 470 – Debates Done, 12 Days to Go!
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 470 - Debates Done, 12 Days to Go!
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The second and final debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden has concluded. This was a much more civil debate than the first – not a difficult proposition due to the nature of the prior engagement. Nevertheless, both candidates landed jabs and some power punches, but neither landed a knock out blow. With respect to certain issues, each side can declare victory as to how they conveyed their message to their respective political base, yet on some topics, also appealing to the broader electorate. With twelve days left to go until election day, it is still either man’s race. However, there are fewer paths to victory for the Trump campaign as opposed to the Biden campaign. Hitting the campaign trail hard over the next two weeks will likely be the plan for both men, as well as getting out as many surrogates as possible, and more importantly yet, getting as many people to vote early if possible, or on election day.

The current early vote tally stands at 47.7 million, with 34.2 being mail ballots, and about 14.5 million in-person. This is smashing the numbers witnessed in 2016, and current vote totals as a percentage of all votes in 2016 is already at 35 percent! In 2016 there were about 137 million votes. Political analysts are expecting 2020 results to come in the 150 to 160 million range. This is a staggering increase and will be interesting to see where the momentum lies. We know this is at the very least a referendum on President Trump – especially with respect to his character, rhetoric, and divisive tendencies. Still, the President has a highly motivated and enthusiastic base of support – but will it be enough to get him over the finish line for re-election? This is not 2016 and Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. Despite this fact, President Trump and his surrogates are using the 2016 playbook attacks for Hillary Clinton, on Joe Biden. This will likely work for the Trump base of support, but it’s effectiveness on Democrats and Independents is most likely nil. Less than two weeks to go and anything can happen and either man can win. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Election2020 #Debates2020 #USA #Economy #Trump #Biden #Vote #Jobs #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 467 – More Spending – Put Up or Shut Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 467 - More Spending - Put Up or Shut Up
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Wall Street did not like the fact that there was not another round of spending agreed to over the weekend or during the day’s trading session – equities sold off. This is the same song and dance we have witnessed several times before throughout 2018-2019 with the US-China trade talks, and the last several months with talks of more spending. Of course, we don’t have the money – but we guess, who cares?! Nonetheless, these stories are thrown out there to juice and pump stocks higher even though there isn’t really anything agreed to. But as we noted last week, as was the case in previous situations, there will come a day when the markets say enough talk – put up or shut up. Well that appears to have been the case today as noted by the selloff across the major indexes. Now, in overnight futures trading, we have the major indexes trading higher again on hopes that Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, along with the White House, and Republicans will continue talks tomorrow, and believe something can be agreed to prior to election day. These headlines are an insult, pure propaganda, and market manipulation, but we digress. And of course, it’s the country and the American people who suffer the consequences and are caught in the crossfire.

On the election front, some 31.3 million votes have already been cast, representing about 22.5 percent of the 2016 total vote turnout. This is quite astonishing and we may very well witness more than half the 2016 turnout occur before election day. This will likely lead to knowing on election night or the day after, who has won the Presidency – as opposed to having all or the majority of votes on election day. A potential con of all this early voting is voters may miss an, “October Surprise,” but we doubt this would have any major effect – most people know who they want to vote for and not much will sway that in either direction.

The President is campaigning heavily and has even been going to some strong red-states, such as Arizona and Georgia, thus signaling that the Trump campaign is concerned with the polling results coming out of these traditional red-states, which Trump won in 2016. President Obama will also be on the campaign trail this week for his former Vice President, as he makes stops in Pennsylvania. The race is still very much up for grabs, but if Biden is able to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he’s up in the polls for all three, then Joe Biden is likely the next President. This would even assume Trump wins the south as in 2016, Iowa, Nevada (which he lost in 2016), Texas, Arizona, and Ohio. So this paints a very big uphill battle for the President to gain those 270 electoral votes that are needed to cross the finish line. It can happen, but the path is slim. The last debate between the Presidential candidates is also taking place this Thursday. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections2020 #Debates2020 #Inflation #Debt #Gold #Silver #Bailouts #Liberty #Revolution

Ep. 466 – Weekly Wrap Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 466 - Weekly Wrap Up
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A recap of this week’s events pertaining to initial jobless claims, Presidential debates, market performance, negative rates, the broader election landscape with down ticket races, and debt and deficit figures. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Elections #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #Debates #Bailouts #USA

Ep. 465 – Townhalls + Jobs
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 465 - Townhalls + Jobs
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Two separate townhalls took place this evening in lieu of what should have been the second debate between President Trump and former VP Joe Biden. Nonetheless, the American people had a chance to watch these townhall events and for the public to ask questions of these two men running for the Presidency. As has been the case in prior townhalls, neither man derailed his campaign. Although there were clear differences in style and temperament, which of course should be no surprise. President Trump tends to be more aggressive, combative, and loud, while Biden tends to be more laid back, reserved, and civil. It is very likely that these differences in style and personality will drive the election results. People either want another four years of President Trump and his behavior and antics or they do not. Nearly 20 million people have already cast their votes, and come election day, it’s possible that half the country may have already voted.

On the initial jobless claims front, another 898,000 Americans filed an initial claim. This runs counter to the argument that this is a super V-shaped recovery. This was well above market expectations, which were around 820,000-825,000 – which is still a high figure. The previous week’s number was also revised upward by 5,000. In total, for persons claiming unemployment benefits, 25.3 million Americans are still receiving some form of benefit. This is for the week ending 26 September and represents a decrease from the prior week of some 215,000 Americans. This is still a staggering and stubbornly high number. Further, we are still contending with the figures coming from the state of California being on pause as they make their way through their backlog of claims and implement a fraud prevention system. This is surely distortionary when attempting to gain a fuller picture of the jobs market – but we have been contending with distortions for months due to fiscal and monetary actions.

The increase in claims, however, is indicative of continuing stress in the economy and would be in agreement with what The Kapital News has been warning about for months. Mainly that fiscal and monetary policy will only get you so far, and that a printing press cannot print jobs. So when taking into consideration the insolvencies and bankruptcies, evictions, weakness in commercial and residential real estate markets, and subsequent layoffs that are waiting in the wings – it’s unfortunately not surprising that we continue to witness such job loss and future uncertainty. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debates #Jobs #Elections #USA #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Bailouts

Ep. 464 – Election October Surprises?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 464 - Election October Surprises?
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With only a few weeks to go until election day, it’s anybody’s guess if there will be an October surprise or two. A couple of stories out recently pertain to the unmasking of US citizens who also happened to be members of the Trump campaign in 2016 – this story has been peddled by President Trump for years, where he has gone so far to say President Obama has committed treason and should be prosecuted. Well, a prosecutor assigned to this case at the Justice Department has concluded that the Obama Administration did not break the law. This of course upset the President, and when asked if he would keep Attorney General Bill Barr as AG should he win re-election, the President replied, “no comment.” This is just another example of the boy who cries wolf, where the President has been making several claims about several reports over the last few years, only to turn out to be nothing – no arrests, no prosecutions, no fines, etc…

Another story comes from the New York Post pertaining to Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Allegedly there are emails and photos that suggest Joe Biden was aware of Hunter’s business dealings with Ukraine and perhaps other foreign countries. The timing of all of this is highly suspect being so close to election day. So the reasonable question to ask is, is this the truth or just a political hit being used to sway an election? The Biden campaign continues to deny any allegations that Joe Biden was aware of his son’s business dealings and played a role in such affairs.

There is desperation in the air as we get closer to 3 November and the Trump campaign has a big hill to climb to regain the Presidency – but it can happen – there are a couple of avenues to winning. However, relitigating the Clinton email scandal, the unmasking situation, hyping up other reports and investigations, and now the Biden email story, may not be the best way to unite a country that is in need of unification. But this is politics, and it’s going to be nasty – especially when the White House is the prize. Buckle up, it’s 2020, an election year, and a few more weeks to go – anything can happen. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Trump #Biden #Debt #Recession #Depression #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #Revolution #USA

Ep. 461 – Accounting Gimmicks Delaying The Day of Reckoning?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 461 - Accounting Gimmicks Delaying The Day of Reckoning?
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Another Thursday and another initial claims report. For the week ending 3 October, 840,000 Americans filed an initial claim – higher than market expectations. Despite being several months into this pandemic and a supposed V-shaped recovery, we’re still witnessing massive weekly filings of over 800,000. The prior week’s figure was revised upward by 12,000 to 849,000. Recall that last week, the Department of Labor noted that the state of California will be “pausing” the release of their figures due to their backlog of claims and to implement a fraud prevention system. This delay is not trivial in our estimation and will only serve to further distort the jobs market. Overall, for the week ending 19 September, 25.5 million Americans are still claiming unemployment insurance benefits. This is a week-over-week decrease of around 1 million. This is trending in the right direction, but may reverse sharply due to the California pause and the nearing exhaustion and expiry of various “stimulus” policies. We also know through the official jobs report released last Friday, that permanent job losers now stand at 3.8 million. This is a level not seen since 2012 and this is a structural, long-term issue that is not likely to be remedied in the near-term. We also know through various surveys and announcements that many corporations are soon to layoff employees in significant numbers. The downstream effects this will have on the broader economy will likely create further downward pressure, thus continuing the recessionary spiral.

We also discuss a couple political news events and a recent interview with famed short-seller and hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. Chanos notes the potential severity of a commercial real estate collapse, which he deems quite probable, while also stating that weakness in this area was occurring prior to the pandemic. However, he notes that in the Nobody CARES Act, there is a change in the accounting rules that allows corporations to create different “buckets” that shield them from fully disclosing the true effects associated with the pandemic. If corporations should so choose to use this provision from the Nobody CARES Act, then this will likely serve the purpose of making them appear more financially sound than they really are – thus the day of reckoning has not be thwarted, but rather only delayed. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #USA #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Debt #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Recession #Depression #Elections

Ep. 460 – Pence v. Harris Debate
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 460 - Pence v. Harris Debate
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The first and only Vice Presidential debate took place tonight between VP Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris. Both sides did what they had to do in our opinion. Pence had to defend the Trump Administration’s record as best he could and attempt to do so with a more serious and civil tone – he succeeded. Harris on the other hand had to simply keep the pace, as the Biden/Harris ticket is well ahead in the polls – even in key swing states and among key demographics – she succeeded. The main event is always the Presidential race and thus the Presidential candidates, and this race is no different. There are only a few short weeks to go until 3 November, and despite that, it must be stressed that anything can happen between now and then. It still is anybody’s race, but given the recent events surrounding the debates thus far, among other concerns, The Kapital News is now forecasting a likely victory for the Biden/Harris ticket. Again, this could change, but if the course remains steady then it will be an extreme uphill battle for the Trump/Pence ticket to win re-election.

In other news, the President reversed course with respect to stopping the negotiations surrounding another round of spending and is once again claiming that he wants to sign a deal. This is borderline insanity and shows the immense power of the words and actions of the President. Yesterday following his tweet to stop the talks, the markets sold off massively. Today, due to the reversal – stocks rallied nearly 2 percent. The President knows of his power and what he’s doing – this is market manipulation and needs to be investigated. These actions have been taking place in the face of the American people since 2017 – it needs to end. The President is also increasing the amount he’d like to give to the airline industry from $20 billion to $25 billion. The previous amount worked out to $625,000 per job “saved.” Now, with the increase, it’ll amount to $781,250 per job “saved.” This is beyond ridiculous. These are publicly traded companies – let them issue shares, go to the corporate debt markets, seek loans from banks, sale their assets, etc. The last place they should be coming for assistance is to the American taxpayer. This should tell you all you need to know as to who our elected officials are really working for. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Debates #Bailouts #Jobs #Inflation #RNC #DNC #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Liberty #Revolution #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #USA

Ep. 458 – The Trump Show + Biden Townhall
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 458 - The Trump Show + Biden Townhall
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The President has left Walter Reed Medical Center and has returned to the White House, despite his physician claiming that the President is still, “not out of the woods.” The Kapital News believes that this is a mistake and that the President should spend another day or two at least, in the hospital. He has the ability to work from this location if he so desires and he’s surrounded by the necessary personnel and equipment, should his condition deteriorate. There is still much to know as to the true state of the President’s health, as the White House and the President’s physician refuse to answer even the most basic of questions. This is a scenario where the American people have the right to know the true status of the President’s health. However, this is consistent and fitting with a White House that delays, dithers, and distorts the truth constantly. It is also an unfortunate event that several other members of the White House have tested positive for COVID-19. This is very much the Trump show – as he used today’s travel from the hospital to the White House as a photo opportunity. We hope the President recovers, but this type of theater is simply not needed.

This evening, former VP Joe Biden, was at a townhall event in Miami, Florida – a battleground state in the upcoming election. This was nothing special from Biden, nor were the questions from the audience. Missing constantly are the structural issues that are tearing this country apart, and everybody seems to simply ask the same questions over and over that have already been answered (for the most part). Still nowhere to be seen or heard are the issues related to the debt and deficits, the actions undertaken by the Congress, White House, and Federal Reserve to bailout one industry after the next – and more spending is on its way. No discussion about the market manipulation amongst the banks and the massive fines that they are paying – yet no one is held accountable. These and so many more questions like these have and will continue to be missing from the conversation – so do not be surprised that nothing changes for the better when you continually decided to vote for the same two-party system time and time again, and await a different result. This is the definition of insanity – and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Elections #Bailouts #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Liberty #Revolution #Jobs #Protests #Trump #Biden #Debates #RNC #DNC #Recession

Ep. 457 – Last Jobs Report Before Election
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 457 - Last Jobs Report Before Election
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The official jobs report was released last Friday and this will be the last jobs report prior to the elections of 3 November. Gaining 661,000 jobs in the month of September was well below market expectations. However, the unemployment level still declined to 7.9 percent. Looking deeper into the report, we witness an increase of 345,000 permanent job losers, taking this to a total of 3.8 million. This now represents an increase of around 2.5 million since February. Another figure that helps to point out that this is a structural issue, is the increase in the number of long-term unemployed (over 27 weeks), up 781,000 to 2.4 million. While it is welcomed news of people being rehired (mainly), or finding new jobs, it must be stressed that the fiscal and monetary policies that have been enacted are temporary in nature as to their potency. Yet, their costs will be long-lasting. These longer-term negative effects is what gives The Kapital News concern. This is witnessed by two factors, 1) there are still 26.5 million Americans claiming some form of unemployment benefit, and 2) Congress, the White House, and the Fed are all discussing another $1.5-2 trillion spending bill. If everything was great, and a V-shaped recovery is well underway, then why the need for more spending? And recall, we don’t have the money – so we’ll print it – this is inflationary. This inflation is very much a part of the devastating costs associated with these fiscal and monetary policies. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #Unemployment #Debt #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed

Ep. 448 – Weekly Wrap Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 448 - Weekly Wrap Up
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News this evening is the passing of Associate Supreme Court Justice, Ruth Bader Ginsburg. She was 87 years old and passed away in the presence of her family. Ginsburg was nominated by President Bill Clinton and served nearly thirty years on the bench of the Supreme Court. She was a tireless advocate for equal rights, especially among women – and her work alone in this area as a lawyer, would have made her an historic American figure even if she was not a Justice on the Supreme Court. May American history always remember her, and her dedication to equal rights, and may she rest in peace.

Other topics discussed today were those that were covered throughout this week. A recap of the town halls of President Trump and VP Joe Biden; further commentary on the 29.8 million Americans still receiving some form of unemployment assistance; and the likelihood of some type of additional spending/bailout coming down the pike. Enjoy your weekend! Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Unemployment #Recession #USA #SupremeCourt #Gold #Silver #Inflation #Depression #Trump #Biden #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed