Tag: Coronavirus

Ep. 461 – Accounting Gimmicks Delaying The Day of Reckoning?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 461 - Accounting Gimmicks Delaying The Day of Reckoning?
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Another Thursday and another initial claims report. For the week ending 3 October, 840,000 Americans filed an initial claim – higher than market expectations. Despite being several months into this pandemic and a supposed V-shaped recovery, we’re still witnessing massive weekly filings of over 800,000. The prior week’s figure was revised upward by 12,000 to 849,000. Recall that last week, the Department of Labor noted that the state of California will be “pausing” the release of their figures due to their backlog of claims and to implement a fraud prevention system. This delay is not trivial in our estimation and will only serve to further distort the jobs market. Overall, for the week ending 19 September, 25.5 million Americans are still claiming unemployment insurance benefits. This is a week-over-week decrease of around 1 million. This is trending in the right direction, but may reverse sharply due to the California pause and the nearing exhaustion and expiry of various “stimulus” policies. We also know through the official jobs report released last Friday, that permanent job losers now stand at 3.8 million. This is a level not seen since 2012 and this is a structural, long-term issue that is not likely to be remedied in the near-term. We also know through various surveys and announcements that many corporations are soon to layoff employees in significant numbers. The downstream effects this will have on the broader economy will likely create further downward pressure, thus continuing the recessionary spiral.

We also discuss a couple political news events and a recent interview with famed short-seller and hedge fund manager Jim Chanos. Chanos notes the potential severity of a commercial real estate collapse, which he deems quite probable, while also stating that weakness in this area was occurring prior to the pandemic. However, he notes that in the Nobody CARES Act, there is a change in the accounting rules that allows corporations to create different “buckets” that shield them from fully disclosing the true effects associated with the pandemic. If corporations should so choose to use this provision from the Nobody CARES Act, then this will likely serve the purpose of making them appear more financially sound than they really are – thus the day of reckoning has not be thwarted, but rather only delayed. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Jobs #Bailouts #USA #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Debt #Liberty #Revolution #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Recession #Depression #Elections

Ep. 459 – The Circus Continues
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 459 - The Circus Continues
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Presidential tweets caused markets to swing back ‘n forth, ending the day lower. Earlier in the afternoon, stocks rallied off the news that the President was feeling better and not exhibiting any symptoms of COVID-19. This rally was only later to be reversed by yet another tweet, whereby the President ordered his representatives to end the negotiations with the Democrats on another spending bill – stocks sold off massively. This is an interesting turn of events, as earlier the President was praising the economy and stock market – only to tweet out the stoppage of further spending that the stock market has been hoping for over the last several weeks. Also interesting is the fact that only a few days ago, the President was telling Congress to get their act together to pass another spending bill. Furthermore, the President a couple of weeks ago during a press conference at the White House, called out Republicans to go for the, “big one,” with respect to another spending bill – claiming that it (the money), all comes back to the USA anyway. Now while the President has stopped the negotiations, he is claiming that another spending bill will be passed after he wins his re-election. So, is the President holding this money as ransom?

We know through various surveys that nearly 50 percent of US households are broke. And we know that some 30 to 40 percent of small businesses have claimed that if they do not receive further assistance from Congress that they will not be able to last through the end of the year. These figures do not count the number of small businesses that have already closed their doors for good. Now make the logical connection(s), without further governmental assistance, many more small businesses will be forced to file bankruptcy and/or liquidate, which will result in further layoffs, which in turn will lead to lower demand for various goods and services throughout the economy, thus causing further downward pressure. This is in stark contrast to how the President notes that the economy is on a fast track to recovery. Then, coincidentally today, we have Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, making comments that without further spending by Congress, the economy may face tragic outcomes. This is some of the strongest language that the Fed Chair has used to stress the need for further fiscal measures. So – somebody is not telling us the truth. On one hand, the President says everything is fine and further spending can wait and/or isn’t needed; and on the other, we have the Fed Chair claiming that major risks exist to the economy/markets if further fiscal actions are not taken.

The Kapital News believes that this house of cards economy is on the verge of collapse. We have consistently been against both fiscal and monetary efforts to “bolster” the US economy and markets since the very beginning and even before they were enacted. There is no free lunch and the costs associated with these efforts will be felt for at least a generation. Meanwhile, any short-term “positive” effects that these measures may have brought have already run its course. Note that some $9.6 trillion has been spent from Federal/State/Local governments and this is where we are: some 26.5 million Americans still claiming unemployment insurance, permanent job losers at 3.8 million, a level not seen since 2013, median duration of unemployed at levels not seen since 2012, tens of millions of evictions waiting in the wings, a countless number of bankruptcies and insolvencies, and with it massive layoffs. So, no, this is not a strong economic recovery. This is simply an attempt by government and central bank figures to keep this mirage of an economy afloat – and in the interim it is decimating small businesses and middle-America – and the true costs of it all have not even been realized – yet. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Debt #Elections #Inflation #Gold #Silver #USA #Liberty #Revolution #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #Jobs #Recession #Depression #GE #Boeing

Ep. 422 – Unfunded Insanity
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 422 - Unfunded Insanity
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Since the President wanted to sign executive orders to extend unemployment benefits and to suspend the payroll tax cut, among others, which is unconstitutional, we wanted to discuss the unfunded liability situation in the US. The payroll tax is responsible for funding the social security fund as well as that of medicare. Understand that at this juncture, the payroll tax cut is really just a suspension, meaning that the tax will have to be paid at a later date – by the tax deadline in 2021. This could prove to be a big shock to many people who may decide to spend the extra income as oppose to saving it. Of course, many employers will be hesitant to comply with this executive order since it is unconstitutional and because it will likely cause obstacles with respect to their bookkeeping. But hey, it’s an election year, so who cares about the details and the US Constitution?

In other news, we also discuss the decision by the Lebanese government today to resign their post. The weakest link of any chain is the first to break and the dominoes are set as we continue to see countries in economic collapse and others on the brink. The global protests and riots that were occurring prior to COVID-19 were not and are not transitory, but rather history in the making. They will continue and likely escalate as we continue through 2020 and beyond. The world is lacking leadership and direction. Governments are unaccountable and corrupt and central bankers are in a currency war to the bottom where the true costs of these fraudulent acts are borne by the people – and the lower on the income scale, the worse the effects. People around the world are sick and tired of being sick and tired, and thus we are witnessing history in the making with these global protests. Some are violent, some will turn violent, others will demand government resignations, others will overthrow their governments, civil war(s) may ensue, as wars between nations. Let us pray for a peaceful resolution, but if current policies are implemented, then we are sealing our fate to a dim future. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Recession #Debt #Gold #Depression #BananaRepublic #Silver #Bailouts #USA #Lebanon #Protests

Ep. 413 – Jobs Data Musical Chairs
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 413 - Jobs Data Musical Chairs
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Another Thursday is in the books and as such it’s a data dump of initial jobless claims and an update to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Despite being several months into the COVID-19 pandemic and the Greatest Depression, we are still unfortunately witnessing over 1 million Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits for the week ending 18 July, as the number was 1.4 million – an increase from the prior week. This is not in agreement with any kind of V-shaped economic recovery. In fact, as we continue to see several states across the country close, re-close, or slow their re-openings, it is likely that the jobs report for the month of July will paint an ugly picture. While the White House may want to cheer the June jobs report, which they did, it may prove to be a premature victory lap, as the reality of the pandemic and depression starts to set in.

As we have noted in previous podcasts, the actions taken by governments and central banks can aid the liquidity issues (at least for awhile), but they cannot alleviate the coming insolvency crisis. The insolvency crisis is waiting in the wings and with it will be the loss of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of more jobs – many of which will be classified as permanent job losses. This was an inevitable outcome for living off of debt and thinking that it was all real and sustainable. Unfortunately, we’re repeating the mistakes of the past, which will only prove to make any economic recovery slower and more painful than what otherwise could have happened.

In other news, the Fed’s balance sheet increased “minimally” by $6 billion from the previous week. However, with Congress set to pass new legislation to extend unemployment benefits and spending to help states and local governments, amongst others, will send the Fed’s balance sheet north of $7 trillion and beyond in short order. In a tit-for-tat response to yesterday’s order from the US State Department ordering Chinese diplomats to close down their consulate in Houston, Texas, the Chinese have ordered US diplomats to leave a US consulate in China. This is the new cold war and tensions will likely remain high for the foreseeable future and this issue will also become center stage politically here in the US during the 2020 Presidential election. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Gold #Debt #Recession #USA #China #Depression #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Congress #Silver #Protests #Bailouts

Ep. 411 – Gold + Silver Making Moves!
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 411 - Gold + Silver Making Moves!
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While the price of gold has been moving up steadily over the past few years, silver on the other hand, has been more range bound. That is until recently. Today the price of silver moved up by several percentage points taking the metal to a spot price of over $22/oz – this is a level not seen since late 2013. So, the question becomes – is this a temporary spike in price or the beginning of what could prove to be a massive bull market? This of course remains unknown. However, with the current state of affairs from policymakers, politicians, and central bankers around the world, it would suggest that there are a lot of tailwinds behind gold and silver. The printing press is no panacea as the world is soon going to discover and the people are also going to become well aware that “free” money was never so expensive. Add to this the geopolitical uncertainties, the upcoming US Presidential election, more talks of government spending, higher inflation expectations, and a further deterioration in the overall economy, places the precious metals market in a ripe environment for perhaps the next several years as a means of diversifying, protecting, and adding to your wealth. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Recession #BananaRepublic #USA #EndTheFed #Depression #Inflation #Gold #Silver

Ep. 410 – The Blind Leading The Blind
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 410 - The Blind Leading The Blind
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More vaccine headlines because, well, it’s a day that ends in “d-a-y.” More “stimulus” on it’s way because, well, that’s what an out of control Congress and White House do – they beg, borrow, and spend money we do not have. Former Chairs of the Fed, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen testified before Congress last week on how to weather the COVID-19 storm and suggested to do, “whatever it takes” – because, well, that’s what central bankers operating in banana republic do – they print money like it’s going out of style – because it is. And lastly, the weakest links in the global economic chain are beginning to completely collapse.

We highlight the devastating economic and social destruction of Lebanon. Wrought with years of political corruption, fraud, abuse, and nepotism, coupled with flawed economic policies have brought the Middle Eastern state to its knees. Unfortunately, the policies and actions that have caused this collapse are all too familiar to billions of people around the world – whether 3rd world or highly industrialized. This is what ultimately led to the global protests prior to the pandemic, and given the economic, health, and social fallout due to the pandemic, the protests will become even larger and likely violent. Any chain is only as strong as its weakest link and if recent history is any guide, do not be surprised if over the course of the next 1-2 years, we see the collapse of not only smaller countries, such as Lebanon, but of larger economies around the globe. A global economy built upon and maintained by debt cannot stand the test of time nor forever defy the laws of economic gravity. A day of reckoning is upon us and the Greatest Depression is now well underway. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Bailouts #BananaRepublic #USA #EndTheFed #Gold #Silver #Protests #Depression #Recession #Inflation #Peace

Ep. 409 – Jobless Claims + More Spending
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 409 - Jobless Claims + More Spending
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It’s Thursday already and so we have another round of initial jobless claims, continuing claims, and Federal Reserve balance sheet data. Initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 1.3 million for the week ending 11 July. This is history in the making as we are several months into the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the economic collapse that will turn into the Greatest Depression, and we’re still witnessing over 1 million Americans filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased by over $30 billion ending a four-week string of declines. The balance is still hovering near that $7 trillion figure. With more spending set to be passed by Congress in the coming weeks, from anywhere between another $1-3 trillion in new spending, we imagine the Fed’s balance sheet to once again increase significantly. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Debt #Bailouts #Depression #Recession #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #USA #Gold #Liberty #Revolution #Protests

Ep. 408 – America In Decline
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 408 - America In Decline
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Where to even begin? The excessive and abusive taxation across federal, state, and local jurisdictions. The theft of our savings and purchasing power through the effects of inflation. The two-tiered justice system.The endless wars and interference and meddling in other countries’ affairs. The trillions of dollars spent on social and corporate welfare programs. The poor state of our infrastructure and education systems. How much further must we go? Oh, yes, and how can we forget the protests and riots from coast to coast.

This has been years in the making and this country along with several others are taking to the streets to demand change. To hold their respective governments and officials accountable for years, if not generations’, worth of failed, flawed, fraudulent, and corrupt policies. The end game is near and unfortunately, millions, if not billions of people around the world are going to experience the severe consequences of these policies. And most don’t even know they’re coming. The sad thing is, at least here in the United States is that we have the answer, but choose to ignore it. The answer is a return to our constitutional republic and to free-market capitalism. If we restore ourselves to these principles and adhere to them, then we can turn this decline around and our best days may very well be ahead of us. But if we do not and continue with the same policy prescriptions, then our decline and demise is just around the corner. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Depression #Debt #Bailouts #EndTheFed #BananaRepublic #USA #Revolution #Liberty #Gold #Deficits #Protests #War #Peace #Truth #Recession #Jobs

Ep. 405 – Final Notice: Evictions
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 405 - Final Notice: Evictions
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With nearly 33 million Americans receiving some sort of unemployment assistance as of last week, there is now a serious concern pertaining to the amount of people facing evictions over the coming months. During the pandemic response, federal and state authorities have issued various moratoriums with respect to renters and home-owners with mortgages. These temporary stays are coming to an end over the next month. If Congress and/or state legislatures do not act, some 20 to 28 million Americans may face eviction over the coming months. For comparison, during the GFC, which at the center was a real estate collapse, some 10 million Americans over the course of a few years were evicted. So even if half of this new estimate should come true, then we’ll match the GFC or worse. And even if “something” is done by government authorities – how much will it cost and will it simply just delay the inevitable?

Many landlords are a part of the “middle-class,” and use real estate as a means to generate extra income and cash flow. Many of these landlords are not outright owners of their properties and as such, also have mortgages and other loans to pay. Well, if their tenants are not paying, then how can the landlord afford to pay their mortgage(s) among other maintenance costs? This is a vicious cycle, because even if there are additional moratoriums, then how will the banks be paid? And as such, would banks then not move to increase their lending standards? Yes, they’re already doing so. This would then mean, if someone wanted a loan, there are going to be higher thresholds that need to be met in order to receive the loan(s), thus translating into a smaller group of people and corporations that will receive the loans. And all of this is on top of trillions of dollars being printed out of thin air. This is a tale of two cities where the largest corporations are being bailed out and even having the corporate debt purchased by the Federal Reserve and on the other side of the city – 33 million Americans unemployed (even more), food bank lines like the Great Depression, and millions about to be evicted. We told you we’re in a banana republic and it’s just getting started. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Bailouts #Depression #Recession #BananaRepublic #EndTheFed #Debt #Gold #Silver #Liberty

Ep. 404 – Deep State Winning
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 404 - Deep State Winning
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Don’t you find it rather amusing that the President “attacks” and calls out the “deep state” for allegedly committing crimes and espionage against himself, his campaign, and his administration, yet at the same time, the President is also a huge cheerleader for the stock market and massive amounts of fiscal and monetary “stimulus?” One of these things is not like the other. Especially when one considers that the largest corporations and biggest components of the markets, especially the Nasdaq, are the likes of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft. You know, those same corporations who were revealed by Edward Snowden to be collecting an endless amount of data on Americans and turning over such information to the government with virtually no questions asked. Also the same companies that pay little to no federal taxes, are awarded sizable government contracts, and now have their corporate debt being purchased by the Federal Reserve. You could not make this stuff up if you tried! And at the end of all of this, the President will still try to have you believe that he is against the deep state and is “draining the swamp.” Give us a break – the swamp is alive and well and those closest to it are taking all the funny banana republic money they can get their hands on. So much for free-market capitalism. And to add insult to injury, the Congress and the White House are getting ready to spend another $2 trillion that we do not have – turn on those printing presses – again…

We also discuss the newly released initial jobless claims figures, the Fed’s balance sheet, and the Supreme Court’s decision with respect to two cases pertaining to President Trump and his tax and financial records. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #BananaRepublic #Economy #Depression #Bailouts #EndTheFed #USA #Gold #Liberty #Recession #Debt