Tag: Commodities

Ep. 600 – A Financial Storm A Brewin’?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 600 - A Financial Storm A Brewin'?
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Global markets have been distorted for a long time, but never before have we witnessed such obvious market manipulation alongside the implementation of distortionary policies. What this ultimately translates into is a system that is over-indebted, over-leveraged, and extremely fragile. It can take the slightest of pin-pricks to burst one bubble after the next. The causes of the bursting of the bubbles are near limitless. They can arise from within the financial and economic systems or they can take the form of an exogenous shock to the system. In any event, one bursting bubble will trigger the bursting of others. The economic, financial, political, and societal fallout will be enormous. In such an event, the blame game and finger pointing will ensue almost immediately.

The reason for today’s discussion is due to the ever-changing and shifting narrative that we hear from the mainstream media and policymakers alike. The Kapital News believes this to be a somewhat coordinated effort to distract the people from the bigger picture. Best to keep the people occupied with circuses than the actual truth of what is actually happening around the globe. In this vein, it is quite evident that the narrative around COVID-19, the Chinese, and their Wuhan laboratory are making headlines. Last year, such connections and questions were not allowed to be asked, otherwise you were labeled a conspiracy theorist. Today, it is front page news. So what shifted? What has changed? While The Kapital News does not specifically know the reasoning or the cause behind the sudden change in narrative, we do question why now and may this be used as part of an excuse as to why markets may breakdown? This is a serious question and it needs to be pondered. Because it may provide the perfect cover for policymakers to put the blame on China, thus deflecting any scrutiny of themselves and the asinine and criminal policies that they have been implementing. There will be more to come on this situation. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Gold #FoodPrices #Housing #Silver #Debt #Spending #Protests #Liberty #Riots #Leadership #Revolution #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Bubbles

Ep. 599 – Higher Housing Prices + Lower Sales
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 599 - Higher Housing Prices + Lower Sales
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The S&P/Case-Shiller US national and 20-city home price indexes, saw year-over-year increases of 13.2 percent each. These types of increases have not been since either 2013 or prior to the GFC in 2005. Now while mortgage rates have also ticked up with housing prices, they are still near all-time lows. However, due to such rapidity in housing price increases, buyers are stepping away from the market. They simply cannot afford to purchase these homes. Furthermore, builders are reluctant to sign offers from buyers because they are concerned with the rapid rise of construction material costs. Should they sign a deal and then costs continue higher, their margins will take a hit and it could be significant. This in turn reduces sales.

Yet despite all of this, we are constantly told that there is no inflation and that the Federal Reserve continues to purchase $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities. These monthly purchases are a part of the Fed’s QE program which came about during the GFC. So let us understand this, the purchasing of MBS during and after the GFC was done because it was an “emergency” due to housing prices falling. Now we have prices at all-time highs and they continue with QE and the purchasing of MBS. How does this make sense? They buy when prices are falling and they buy when prices keep going up. Something does not make sense and it is likely that a massive correction in housing and/or construction materials is on the horizon. However, the Fed will do everything in their power to prevent this from happening or at least cushion the blow. And not only is this an economic story, but also a political and social story because home-ownership is a very emotional topic. So if prices should continue higher and more and more people are priced out of the market, while at the same time also having to contend with rising rents, and other cost increases, then something is likely to break and give way. Expect political movements, protests, and the like because of this reality. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Housing #Inflation #Gold #Economy #Silver #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #Debt #Liberty #USA #Leadership #Commodities #Protests #FoodPrices #Revolution #FireCongress

Ep. 597 – Policymakers Getting Nervous?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 597 - Policymakers Getting Nervous?
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Politicians and central bankers the world over have been boxed-in for some time. The road to responsibility, accountability, and leadership is not one they want to take. Therefore, they continue to implement the same asinine policies that led us to this point. And despite all of these artificial attempts to prop up the system and despite how powerful these institutions may be separately or combined, they are not larger than or more powerful than the markets. This means the day of reckoning awaits us. The question is when does this happen? Policymakers know this, but will never admit to it. However, by reading between the lines and listening carefully to their remarks, it is quite clear that they are getting nervous. They know the global economy is extremely fragile right now, as are whole countries from a political and societal perspective. They know this will not end well and they know they will be the ones who will be blamed.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending 15 May came in at 444,000. The lowest reading since the pandemic. The prior week was revised higher by 5,000 to now stand at 478,000. In aggregate, there remains nearly 16 million Americans that continue to claim some form of unemployment insurance. This gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 11.5 percent. The official rate is 6.1 percent.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has hit a new all-time high at $7.922 trillion! This is a week-over-week increase of $90 billion. This is a sign that the Fed is worried about the recent price action in the equity markets that has been trending lower, and this is a clear attempt at cushioning the blow in the least and sparking a rally at best. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion per month in US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed is also starting to admit that they are paying closer attention to crypto and digital currencies, and announced that they will be publishing a report on this matter in the summer months.

In other news, the 11 day conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians has come to halt, at least for now as both sides have agreed to a cease-fire that went into effect early Friday morning. The deal was brokered by Egypt. At least 232 Palestinians, including 65 children have been killed. On the Israeli side, twelve people were killed, including two children. Let us pray that the ceasefire holds and turns into a more peaceful situation between the two sides. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Jobs #Gold #Silver #FoodPrices #Protests #USA #Israel #Palestine #Commodities #Riots #Peace #Liberty #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Leadership #Debt #Revolution

Ep. 596 – Bitcoin or Bitcon?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 596 - Bitcoin or Bitcon?
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The price of Bitcoin is known to be volatile with large swings to the upside and the downside. Currently, it is swinging to the downside where it is trading at $39,300 per coin. Not long ago it was trading around $65,000 per coin, which translates into a loss of over 40 percent in a very short timespan. This type of volatility does not lend itself well for those who advocate that Bitcoin is a store of value. In fact, with such volatility it is quite the opposite. It is a speculative play whereby people are hoping to catch their lottery ticket that is going to give them eternal financial freedom. Markets just simply do not work this way. Some of the recent downside volatility has been a direct result of comments made by Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, and statements from several Chinese regulatory agencies.

Mr. Musk, through Tesla, purchased around $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin earlier this year. As one would imagine, it caught the attention of the media and the markets and Bitcoin would eventually go on to make new all-time highs. Yet after only a few shorts months of being on the balance sheet of Tesla, Musk tweets out the flaws that pertain to Bitcoin, namely the energy consumption that is used to mine Bitcoin and to use it for transactions. This was a rather shocking statement, only because these facts have been well-known for years and Musk is supposed to be all about the “green” economy. Yet here he was supporting Bitcoin, at least temporarily, despite the inefficient nature of Bitcoin and the energy usage associated with it. Was this a pump and dump scheme? Because it is virtually impossible that Musk did not know those facts prior to adding it to Tesla’s financials.

Another issue to contend with are the Chinese regulators that are prohibiting institutions and their citizens of engaging with cryptocurrencies. Now it is interesting to note that China, along with many other countries and their respective central banks are planning, building, or testing their own versions of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). So it should come as no surprise that governments want to be the only game in town. After all, they can tax, fine, and imprison you if you do not comply with their orders. Bitcoin and other cryptos, or any private institution or individual lacks that power. It is therefore likely that more governments will start to come out and limit, restrict, or outright ban the use of cryptos other than their own. This speculative mania will without question be remembered in the history books, especially after it all comes tumbling down. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Bitcoin #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Protests #Liberty #USA #Leadership #Economy #bananarepublic #EndTheFed #Revolution #FireCongress #Debt

Ep. 595 – Gold + Silver About to Shine?
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 595 - Gold + Silver About to Shine?
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The yellow and white metals put on solid gains today and have been slowly taking out one level of technical resistance after the next. Both gold and silver are on the brink of breaking through some larger resistance levels and if they should bust through to the upside, then it is likely that gold may flirt with its all-time high seen last summer, and silver may finally break the $30/oz. level. If silver should gain ground above $30/oz. then it may very well make a move to test its all-time highs, which was close to $50/oz. Regardless, The Kapital News believes that the precious metals market is in the early stages of a long-term bull market. Gold and silver are sniffing out inflation and quite possibly global turmoil as well. These are some of the oldest markets on Earth and they have survived one empire after another. This is far from being the first rodeo for gold and silver. They may also know that global conflict may be well underway or is about to be. These actions have not yet been priced into global equity markets as they remain a stone’s throw away from all-time highs. Should there be global conflict on a large scale, oil prices would likely spike, panic would ensue, and equities would sell-off. Of course there may be some plays in equities, such as energy and defense companies, but the broader market would likely feel the downside pressure.

Another issue to contend with that supports higher gold and silver prices is that of the twin-deficit, which is getting worse by the day. The twin-deficit is comprised of the budget deficit and the trade deficit. The former is now in the multi-trillion dollar range and the latter is nearing the one trillion dollar mark at $850 billion! This historically, has not been good for the US dollar, which is a variable that can weigh down gold and silver should it be moving to the upside. Couple the twin-deficit with the reckless policies of the Federal Reserve and you have a recipe for economic disaster and an opportunity to capitalize on gold, silver, and other commodities. The inflation is already here, as it is an increase in the money supply. This has happened and it continues to be the policy of the Fed and other central banks. The higher prices that result from such inflationary policies are being felt and to an even greater degree globally and will continue to strain societies and governments the world over. This environment is ripe for social unrest and conflict. Let us hope and pray that it does not come to pass, but unfortunately, if history is any indicator, and it is, then get prepared. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Economy #Debt #bananarepublic #FireCongress #EndTheFed #Revolution #Liberty #Protests #Leadership #USA

Ep. 594 – Markets Overnight
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 594 - Markets Overnight
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A brief recap of market performance last Friday along with some economic data, and then a look at where markets are trending overnight and into Monday. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Liberty #USA #Leadership

Ep. 593 – Jobless Claims Down, Producer Prices Up
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 593 - Jobless Claims Down, Producer Prices Up
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The initial jobless claims figure for the week ending 8 May, came in at 473,000. The lowest figure in over a year and continuing its downward trend as the economy reopens. Data from the prior week was revised upward by 9,000 to now stand at 507,000. The Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program saw 104,000 Americans file for the first time, also during in the week ending 8 May. In aggregate, across all forms of unemployment insurance, some 16.9 million Americans continue to file claims. This is for the week ending 24 April and gives us a de facto unemployment rate of 12.8 percent, which is more than 2x the official rate. The official unemployment rate is now 6.1 percent.

Also released today was the Producer Price Index Summary, which showed that producer prices for the final demand index rose by 6.2 percent in April on a year-over-year basis. This is the highest figure since records were kept on a yearly basis going back to November of 2010. Stripping out food, energy, and trade services, the index stands at 4.6 percent, which is also a record-high going back to August of 2014. As we witnessed yesterday in the CPI report, these figures released today were higher than market expectations. The question becomes just how long these price increases will continue. Will they be transitory as the Federal Reserve claims, or will they be longer-lasting and more structural for a few years or more to come? This is a crucial question, as markets, economies, political processes, and societies will all be greatly impacted.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has hit a new all-time high and now stands at $7.83 trillion. This is a week-over-week increase of $20 billion. The Fed remains committed to their QE program of purchasing at least $120 billion per month of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. So far, the Fed has brushed off the recent higher than expected inflation figures, as they continue with their transitory remarks. They also appear to want to wait and see what future data points suggest is underway throughout the economy. Chances are they will be too late to respond to any structural problem and thus their efforts will likely prove futile. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #FoodPrices #Bitcoin #Bitcon #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Liberty #USA #Leadership #Jobs #Bailouts #Protests #Riots #Revolution #Peace

Ep. 592 – There’s No Inflation, But There IS!
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 592 - There's No Inflation, But There IS!
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, released their Consumer Price Index Summary for the month of April. The headline figure came in at 4.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, which was above market consensus. This is the highest reading since September of 2008. Speaking of no inflation, used cars and trucks saw an increase of 10 percent in the month of April! With people moving out of the cities and into the suburbs, they are also bidding up the prices of new and used vehicles. Also, with the impact of the pandemic, many people may also be concerned with utilizing public transportation and are thus opting for their own vehicles. This one-month increase of 10 percent is the highest on record since the series began in 1953. Also, notable was the all items less food and energy category rose by 0.9 percent, which was the largest monthly increase since 1982.

On a year-over-year basis, some of the notable increases were the following: food is up 4.2 percent, energy is up 25.1 percent, gasoline is up 49.6 percent, utilities (gas) is up 12.1 percent, new vehicles are up 2.0 percent, and used vehicles are up 21.0 percent. Speaking of vehicles, Q4 2020 average prices for new and used vehicles came in at $40,107 and $27,689, respectively. Down payments also increased, but still puts the average monthly payment at $581! And here you were thinking that all that free money from Uncle Sam was actually free – well, bless your heart. There is no free lunch and this is one of the worst economic policies that has ever been implemented and on a global scale to boot. Now some may say that this is all transitory. Perhaps the degree to which these prices are rising may be transitory, but the overall inflation and its effects, are anything but temporary. This is a structural shift that is going to wreak havoc around the globe for years to come. Pay attention! Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #FoodPrices #CarPrices #Debt #Spending #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Oil #Liberty #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #Leadership

Ep. 591 – The Ever-Changing Narrative
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 591 - The Ever-Changing Narrative
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In the 24/7 news cycle, there is always a moving target. So it is not uncommon for there to be a new narrative from week to week or even day to day to hold the attention of their viewers. The Kapital News does not play this game and has called out most, if not all of these narratives as of late for being what they are – phony. The main narrative to focus on with respect to markets is the liquidity injections by central banks into the system. It is the funny money that is conjured up out of thin air that continues to prop up these markets. Simply ask yourself where would bond prices, bond yields, interest rates, and equity prices be if it were not for these actions undertaken by central banks? The answer is quite simple, yields and interest rates would be higher, and bond and equity prices lower. This is a house of mirrors and one which is built upon a foundation of sand. Nonetheless, the markets continue to buy into this narrative and policy and so they march onward and upward to new highs. Yes, there have been some minor pullbacks here and there, but they then go on to make new highs. As long as this is the case, then markets move higher. But once this relationship breaks down, and The Kapital News believes that it is only a matter of time, then these liquidity injections will no longer matter and will be impotent in propping up the markets. This will likely result in a great unraveling, whose force cannot be stopped by any kind of monetary or fiscal intervention. At this juncture, market forces are in complete control and they will rid the system of malinvestments and fraudulent businesses. Look out below.

Other news discussed pertained to updates on the Colonial pipeline situation, the Israeli and Palestinian conflict that has been intensifying, and an update on the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Much of these geopolitical events are not receiving the news coverage they deserve and furthermore, the equity markets do not seem to be pricing in the types of risks that can rapidly develop if any of these global issues escalate more seriously than where they currently stand. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Fraud #FoodPrices #Debt #Spending #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #FireCongress #USA #Israel #Palestine #Russia #Ukraine #Protests #Riots #Peace #War #Gold #Silver #Commodities #Liberty #Leadership

Ep. 590 – Nation Against Nation
The Kapital News
The Kapital News
Ep. 590 - Nation Against Nation
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The Kapital News has been talking at length since 2019 about the protests that were taking place globally. While there is always something that triggers such movements, it is rarely ever just that one issue making the headlines. Typically, it is a series of structural flaws and failures that have been tolerated for far too long, and now the people are making a stand. Due to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, many of these protests and movements were paused. Now, with vaccines being rolled out and people anxious to get back to their lives, these protests are once again taking place and gaining international momentum. Furthermore, much of the problems from 2019 and prior were not contended with in 2020, and in fact, many of these issues were made worse. And due to the pandemic and all of the fallout, many new issues now exist.

Revolutions are fought on empty stomachs and The Kapital News is projecting a structural, long-lasting inflation. Of course inflation means an increase in the money supply, which has and is occurring in spades, but the effects of inflation, higher prices, will be here to stay for some time. The focus on the price increases are on items that people need to live and survive, such as food, energy, medical products/services, shelter, and other commodities. We are not so concerned with items that people do not need to live. It is actually quite simple to see – are all of these people protesting and rioting because the cost of living is so affordable, or otherwise? And yet this is only the beginning of these price increases. We saw what happened in the Middle East only a decade ago with the Arab Spring. Much of this was caused by inflation and high food prices. This happened only a couple years after major central banks began their monetary experiment of QE following the GFC. An inflationary policy that had ripple effects around the world and later contributed to such a movement. The actions undertaken by central banks and governments around the world today dwarf the efforts during and shortly following the GFC – so what can one reasonably conclude? That the fallout from these policies will be even worse and far more reaching. Throw in wealth inequality, tax increases, and political corruption with these higher prices and you have one dangerous and volatile cocktail.

News stories discussed today pertain to the escalation between Israel and Gaza. Actions between these two have not been this bad since 2014. This comes on the heels of rising tensions between Israel and Syria, where Syria is playing middleman for Iran. Another common story now seems to be run-ins at sea between Iranian naval forces and US naval forces. Just last month, US forces fired warning shots at Iranian speedboats for conducting dangerous maneuvers and getting too close to US vessels. Well the same thing just occurred whereby US forces fired 30 warning shots at Iranian speedboats. The frequency of such actions is setting itself up for something to go wrong – let us pray that it does not. In the US, the Colonial pipeline was hacked over the weekend. According to the FBI, it was at the hands of a Russian hacker group. The pipeline is one of the most crucial in the states, especially for the east coast as it supplies a major portion of gasoline. Gas prices were already anticipated to be higher in the spring and summer months, and this setback only adds to those price pressures. Restoration of the pipeline has yet to be fully restored at this time. The longer it takes, the worse the outcome. Other items mentioned, were the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Australia and China, China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, Scotland and the UK, and civil war mentions in France, amongst others. It is nation against nation. Pray for peace, yet be prepared for war. Stay diversified, stay vigilant, and stay with The Kapital News. #Economy #Inflation #Protests #FoodPrices #Commodities #Revolution #USA #Liberty #Leadership #War #Peace #FireCongress #EndTheFed #bananarepublic #Gold #Silver #Debt